Meeting emission targets under uncertainty—the case of Finnish non-emission-trading sector

The European Union (EU) has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at least 10 % below the 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-Emission Trading Sector (non-ETS). As part of this, each Member State has a binding national emission limitation target for the non-ETS sector. Finland’s target, examined as a case study in this paper, is to reduce emissions at least 16 % below 2005 levels by 2020. The objective of this study is to find cost optimal mitigation portfolios that meet Finland’s reduction target and to analyze the risks of not attaining the emission target or exceeding the assumed costs. The question was addressed with a stochastic optimization model, Stochastic Optimization of non-ETS Emissions (SONETS) selecting separate mitigation measures that meet the target on expectation. The results show that optimal portfolios include relatively high uncertainty both in costs and achieved reductions. The prices of crude oil and diesel, and the abatement cost of reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions seem to account for the majority of uncertainty regarding total costs. The baseline predictions for various non-ETS subsectors (such as transport and agriculture) were found to have the greatest contribution to the uncertainty of attaining emission target. The results also show that some abatement actions are chosen in nearly all efficient portfolios, while other actions are seldom chosen. For example replacing oil burners in the end of technical life time or recovery of methane (CH₄) from waste are often chosen whereas ban of landfilling of organic waste is chosen extremely seldom. It also seems that the results are somewhat sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of the interdependencies of mitigation measures.     

Phosphorus in runoff assessed by anion exchange resin extraction and an algal assay

Eutrophication of surface waters can be accelerated by agricultural inputs of phosphorus (P), provided that P is in a form that can be utilized by aquatic algae. We studied anion exchange resin (AER) extraction and a dual culture algal assay (DCAA) for the determination of potentially algal-available P in water samples without sediment preconcentration. Our material consisted of agricultural and forest runoff and wastewaters. The results obtained by the two methods were essentially equal when the samples contained only small amounts of particulate phosphorus (PP) in relation to dissolved molybdate-reactive phosphorus (DRP). However, in turbid agricultural runoff, P extracted with AER averaged 72% (n = 17) of the P yield of the 3-wk DCAA (R2 = 0.94). When the runoff samples were diluted for the AER extraction in the same manner as for the DCAA, the AER-P yield increased to 85% (n = 5) of DCAA-P. The minimum detectable value was greater for the AER test (41 microg L(-1) AER-extractable P) than for the DCAA (7 microg L(-1) DCAA-P). At concentrations greater than about 50 microg L(-1) AER-P or DCAA-P, the accuracy of the methods was satisfactory, with the coefficient of variation in replicated analyses being less than 10% for the AER test and less than 20% for the DCAA. Other anions competing for the exchange sites of the AER decreased P recovery by 15 to 20% when their equivalent concentration exceeded about 4 mmol, L(-1), and this effect was relatively constant over a large concentration range. We consider that AER extraction is a suitable low-cost method to estimate the algal availability of P in runoff samples.     

Does control of soil erosion inhibit aquatic eutrophication?

Much of the phosphorus (P) from erosive soils is transported to water bodies together with eroded soil. Studies clarifying the impact of soil erosion on eutrophication have sought largely to quantify the reserves of P in soil particles that can be desorbed in different types of receiving waters. Aquatic microbiology has revealed that the cycling of P is coupled to the availability of common electron acceptors, Fe oxides and SO?, through anaerobic mineralization in sediments. Eroded soil is also rich in Fe oxides, and their effect on the coupled cycling of C, Fe, S, and P has been neglected in eutrophication research. Soil erosion, and its control, should therefore be studied by considering not only the processes occurring in the water phase but also those taking place after the soil particles have settled to the bottom. We propose that in SO?-rich systems, Fe oxides transported by eroded soil may promote Fe cycling, inhibit microbial SO? reduction and maintain the ability of sediment to retain P. We discuss the mechanisms through which eroded soil may affect benthic mineralization processes and the manner in which soil erosion may contribute to or counteract eutrophication.     

Integrated scenario modelling of energy,greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.     

Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

Labile organic carbon regulates phosphorus release from eroded soil transported into anaerobic coastal systems

Coastal eutrophication is expected to increase due to expanding and intensifying agriculture which causes a large amount of soil-associated P to be transported into aquatic systems. We performed anaerobic long-term incubations on field soil to mimic the conditions that eroded soil encounters in brackish sediments. The release of P from soil increased with the amount of labile organic C (acetate) addition and decreased with the soil/solution ratio. We deduce that in less-productive brackish systems, microbial Fe reduction allows for the maintenance of the coupled cycling of Fe and P and restricts the amount of P entering the oxic water. In more eutrophic systems, the formation of Fe sulfides as a result of SO₄ reduction inactivates Fe, and leads to a higher release of P, thus generating an adverse feedback effect. The dependence of the fate of soil-bound Fe and P on the trophic status of the receiving water should be recognized in eutrophication management.     

Global warming potential factors and warming payback time as climate indicators of forest biomass use

A method is presented for estimating the global warming impact of forest biomass life cycles with respect to their functionally equivalent alternatives based on fossil fuels and non-renewable material sources. In the method, absolute global warming potentials (AGWP) of both the temporary carbon (C) debt of forest biomass stock and the C credit of the biomass use cycle displacing the fossil and non-renewable alternative are estimated as a function of the time frame of climate change mitigation. Dimensionless global warming potential (GWP) factors, GWP_bio and GWP_biouse, are derived. As numerical examples, 1) bioenergy from boreal forest harvest residues to displace fossil fuels and 2) the use of wood for material substitution are considered. The GWP-based indicator leads to longer payback times, i.e. the time frame needed for the biomass option to be superior to its fossil-based alternative, than when just the cumulative balance of biogenic and fossil C stocks is considered. The warming payback time increases substantially with the residue diameter and low displacement factor (DF) of fossil C emissions. For the 35-cm stumps, the payback time appears to be more than 100 years in the climate conditions of Southern Finland when DF is lower than 0.5 in instant use and lower than 0.6 in continuous stump use. Wood use for construction appears to be more beneficial because, in addition to displaced emissions due to by-product bioenergy and material substitution, a significant part of round wood is sequestered into wood products for a long period, and even a zero payback time would be attainable with reasonable DFs.     

ToSIA—A tool for sustainability impact assessment of forest-wood-chains

Within the forest sector, the sustainability concept has evolved from a narrow focus on sustainable wood production to a much broader evaluation of environmental, social, and economic sustainability for whole value chains. A new software tool - ToSIA - has been developed for assessing sustainability impacts of Forest-Wood-Chains (FWCs). In the approach, FWCs are defined as chains of production processes (e.g. harvesting-transport-industrial processing), which are linked with products (e.g. a timber frame house). Sustainability is determined by analysing environmental, economic, and social sustainability indicators for all the production processes along the FWC. The tool calculates sustainability values as products of the relative indicator values (i.e. indicator value expressed per unit of material flow) multiplied with the material flow entering the process. Calculated sustainability values are then aggregated for the segments of the FWC or for the complete chain. The sustainability impact assessment requires carefully specified system boundaries. ToSIA uses a data-oriented approach that is very flexible in the focus of the analysis and the selection of indicators of sustainability. An example of alternative Norway spruce management systems in Southern Germany and their effects on six sustainability indicators is presented. The less intensive management system with natural regeneration and motor-manual harvesting shows higher carbon storage and slightly less energy use. It creates more employment and higher labour costs, but the average rate of accidents is also higher. ToSIA offers a transparent and consistent methodological framework to assess sustainability impacts in the forest-based sector as affected, e.g. by changes in policies, market conditions, or technology. The paper discusses strengths and limitations of the approach and provides an outlook on further development perspectives of the methodology.     

Phosphorus loss from different farming systems estimated from soil surface phosphorus balance

The phosphorus load originating from crop production and animal husbandry is a major contributor to the eutrophication of lakes, rivers and coastal waters. The P losses to surface waters may, however, differ drastically due to the diversity of agricultural production systems practised under contrasting environmental conditions. To assess the most problematic types of agriculture, we need information on the P load from different alternative farming practices. Such information cannot, however, be obtained solely from field runoff experiments, as the number of treatment combinations required to account for all relevant farming systems and environmental conditions far exceeds our research capabilities. To facilitate the comparison of P loads, we therefore need reasonably simple models. A key factor controlling the P load from agriculture is the past and present use of nutrients in fertilizers and manure in relation to a crop's uptake, i.e. the soil-surface balance of P. Here, we present a simple empirical model that relates the P surplus (or deficit) in a farm to the edge-of-field losses of algal-available P. Based on long-term fertilizer trials, the model first estimates the change in soil-test P of top soil with the aid of the soil-surface balance of P. Soil-test P is then used to approximate the concentration of dissolved reactive P in surface runoff and drainage flow, as adjusted for different P application types. The loss of particulate P is obtained from typical erosion rates. The model can be applied in life-cycle analyses and in assessing future developments. We illustrate use of the model by calculating the loss of algal-available P from conventional and organic crop and dairy farms located on clay and fine sand soils.     

MSWI BA treated with Advanced Dry Recovery: a field scale study on materials’ leaching properties

In many European countries, the environmental properties of waste-derived aggregates are mostly assessed based on laboratory leaching tests such as the standardised percolation tests CEN/TS/14405, ISO/TS 21268-3, or DIN 19528. These tests are conducted under specified conditions, which are similar yet somewhat different from realistic field conditions. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the leaching properties of ADR (Advanced Dry Recovery) recovered MSWI BA in the field in order to understand more about its environmental impacts in actual civil engineering structures. Two field scale studies (a lysimeter and a larger interim storage field study) were constructed and the leachate quality was investigated. These results were then complemented with the results of previously conducted laboratory leaching tests using a liquid to solid ratio (L kg^?1) comparison. The results demonstrated that the leaching behaviours of many potentially harmful substances, such as chloride, copper and antimony, was similar despite the study scale. In addition, this study illustrated the importance of investigating the leaching properties of waste-derived aggregates on a larger scale, even though the uncertainties in such studies may not be easily controlled.