Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

Influence of Landfill Gas on the Microdistribution of Grass Establishment Through Natural Colonization

Many revegetated landfills have poor cover including bare areas where plants do not grow. This study, on the Bisasar Road Landfill site in South Africa, assessed grass species preferences to microhabitat conditions in a mosaic of patches of well-established grassed areas and bare, nonvegetated areas. Factors, including soil CO₂, CH₄, O₂, nutrients, and other general soil conditions, were measured in relation to species distribution and grass biomass in the field. Cynodon dactylon was the dominant grass in the established grass areas but was less abundant in the areas bordering the bare areas where Paspalum paspalodes and Sporobolus africanus were common. A number of soil factors measured were significantly correlated with grass biomass and these included Mg, Ca, Zn, Mn, K, temperature, moisture, and CO₂. However, a laboratory bioassay using the growth of C. dactylon with soils removed from the landfill indicated that there were no differences in the soils from the bare areas and those that supported high plant biomass. Thus, no nutrient deficiency or chemical toxicity was inherent in the soil in the laboratory. The results of the field investigation and bioassay indicated that soil CO₂ as a result of landfill gas infiltration into the root zone was probably the main factor causing bare areas on the landfill where no grass species could colonize and grow and that C. dactylon was more sensitive to elevated soil CO₂ than other grass species such as P. paspalodes and S. africanus.     

Systems-based accident analysis methods: A comparison of Accimap, HFACS, and STAMP

Three accident causation models, each with their own associated approach to accident analysis, currently dominate the human factors literature. Although the models are in general agreement that accidents represent a complex, systems phenomenon, the subsequent analysis methods prescribed are very different. This paper presents a case study-based comparison of the three methods: Accimap, HFACS and STAMP. Each was used independently by separate analysts to analyse the recent Mangatepopo gorge tragedy in which six students and their teacher drowned while participating in a led gorge walking activity. The outputs were then compared and contrasted, revealing significant differences across the three methods. These differences are discussed in detail, and the implications for accident analysis are articulated. In conclusion, a modified version of the Accimap method, incorporating domain specific taxonomies of failure modes, is recommended for future accident analysis efforts.     

Distribution and abundance of marine nematodes on the kelp Macrocystic integrifolia

The species and distribution of nematodes on the kelp Macrocystic integrifolia Bory, in the Bamfield region of Barkley Sound, British Columbia, Canada were examined. Nine species (belonging to six families) of nematodes were found on the kelp blades. Three species (Monhystera disjuncta, M. refringens and Prochromadorella neapolitana) comprised 91–99% of the nematode fauna and occurred in all monthly samples from July 1978 to November 1979. The three dominant species exhibited seasonal density differences. P. neapolitana occurred mostly in the summer, M. refringens abundance peaked from July to October and M. disjuncta was relatively abundant throughout the year. The other species contributed little to the overall abundance and distribution patterns. All three species occurred in greatest abundance on the lower and middle blades of M. integrifolia in the deep end of the kelp bed. Very few individuals occurred on the upper blades. Nematode distribution on M. integrifolia appeared to be related to blade age and the associated food sources on the blade.     

Contextualising risk within enterprise risk management through the application of systems thinking

New and emerging risks create growing uncertainty and unpredictability within enterprise risk management. While ISO 31000:2009 is a progressive risk management framework, it is limited in its guidance on how to contextualise complex risks. The application of systems thinking to risk management provides the opportunity to better understand complexity by viewing risk and the consequence of change as part of overall system behaviour. System modelling tools enable organisations to better contextualise their risk landscape. These tools assist organisations to identify vulnerabilities between social and ecological variables in the system within they exist. Determining drivers of change leading to system vulnerabilities can assist in understanding threshold limits of the system, thus enabling the organisation to build system resilience and organisational sustainability.     

Prioritizing Pacific Salmon Stocks for Conservation

Over 300 native stocks of Pacific salmon, steelhead, and coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus spp.) are at risk of extinction in the Pacific Northwest. With only limited resources available for conservation and recovery, prioritization of these stocks may become necessary if meaningful measures are to be implemented. We propose criteria by which prioritization may be guided. First, we rank stocks for risk of extinction, either by population viability analysis or by a set of surrogate measures. Then we rank stocks for biological consequences of extinction, using sets of questions designed to establish the genetic and evolutionary consequences and the ecological consequences if a stock were to become extinct. Together, these rankings allow stocks to be prioritized for a range of possible actions, with those stocks at highest risk and bearing the greatest biological consequences of extinction receiving attention first. Application of the prioritization process to 20 Pacific anadromous salmonid stocks worked as intended, although data limitations are considerable. The process is most likely to work successfully when applied to many stocks on which data exist, when several experts carry out the prioritization, and when the results are peer reviewed.