Developing Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System to Meet the Reporting Requirements of the Kyoto Protocol

The rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere can be reduced by decreasing emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and by increasing the net uptake (or reducing the net loss) of carbon in terrestrial (and aquatic) ecosystems. The Kyoto Protocol addresses both the release and uptake of carbon. Canada is developing a National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System in support of its international obligations to report greenhouse gas sources and sinks. This system employs forest-inventory data, growth and yield information, and statistics on natural disturbances, management actions and land-use change to estimate forest carbon stocks, changes in carbon stocks, and emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases. A key component of the system is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS). The model is undergoing extensive revisions to enable analyses at four spatial scales (national, provincial, forest management unit and stand) and in annual time steps. The model and the supporting databases can be used to assess carbon-stock changes between 1990 and the present, and to predict future carbon-stock changes based on scenarios of future disturbance rates and management actions.     

Influence of Methodology and Assumptions on Reported National Carbon Flux Inventories: An Illustration from the Canadian Forest Sector

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed guidelines to standardize the international reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by signatory nations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. With regard to forest sector carbon fluxes, the IPCC guidelines require only that those fluxes directly associated with human activities (i.e., harvesting and land-use change) be reported. In Canada, the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2) has been used to assess carbon fluxes from the entire forest sector. This model accounts for carbon fluxes associated with both anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as wild fires and insects. We combined model results for the period 1985 to 1989 with additional data to compile seven different national carbon flux inventories for the forest sector. These inventories incorporate different system components under a variety of seemingly plausible assumptions, some of which are encouraged refinements to the default flux inventory described in the IPCC guidelines. The resulting estimated net carbon fluxes varied from a net removal of 185,000 kt carbon per year of the inventory period to a netemission of 89,000 kt carbon per year. Following the default procedures in the IPCC guidelines, while using the best available national data, produced an inventory with a net removal of atmospheric carbon. Adding the effect of natural disturbances to that inventory reversed the sign of the net flux resulting in a substantial emission. Including the carbon fluxes associated with root biomass in the first inventory increased the magnitude of the estimated net removal. The variability of these results emphasizes the need for a systems approach in constructing a flux inventory. We argue that the choice of which fluxes to include in the inventory should be based on the importance of these fluxes to the overall carbon budget and not on the perceived ease with which flux estimates can be obtained. The results of this analysis also illustrate two specific points. Even those Canadian forests which are most free from direct human interactions—forests in which no commercial harvesting occurs—are not in equilibrium, and their contribution to national carbon fluxes should be included in the reported flux inventory. Moreover, those forest areas that are subject to direct management are still substantially impacted by natural disturbances. The critical effect of inventory methodology and assumptions on inventory results has important ramifications for efforts to “monitor” and “verify” programs aimed at mitigating global carbon emissions.     

Carbon Budget Implications of the Transition from Natural to Managed Disturbance Regimes in Forest Landscapes

Land-use change from an unmanaged to a managed forested landscape in northern forests is associated with a reduction of the area annually affected by natural disturbances (wildfires and forest insects) and the introduction of harvesting as a new disturbance. This study examined the impacts of changes in the disturbance regime-the frequency and type of disturbance-on landscape-level carbon (C) content and fluxes. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector was used to assess these impacts in six representative landscapes (100,000 ha each) with a range of disturbance regimes that are characteristic of conditions in coastal British Columbia, the interior of British Columbia, and the eastern boreal forest in Canada. The model was used to simulate ecosystem C fluxes during a period of natural disturbances, a 50-year transition period during which harvesting replaced natural disturbances, followed by 150 years of harvesting. The initial landscape-level biomass C content under natural disturbance regimes in the six example landscapes was 22 to 75% of their potential maximum content which is often used as the reference or baseline case. After 200 years of forest management, the C stored in the landscape plus the C retained in forest products manufactured from harvested biomass was between 58 and 101% of the landscape C content prior to the onset of harvesting. Landscape-level ecosystem C content was found to be affected by changes in the disturbance frequency, the age-dependence of the disturbance probabilities, and the disturbance-specific impacts on ecosystem C content. The results indicate that using the potential maximum C content of a landscape as the baseline always overestimates the actual C release due to land use change. A more meaningful procedure would be to assess the actual differences in landscape-level C content between the natural and the managed disturbance regime.     

The carbon budget of Canadian forests: a sensitivity analysis of changes in disturbance regimes, growth rates, and decomposition rates

Ecosystem responses to climate changes will affect the exchange of carbon (C) with the atmosphere, thus providing feedback for future climate response. We have developed a C budget model of Canadian forests and forest sector activities and used sensitivity analysis runs with changes in productivity, decomposition, and disturbance regimes to assess the sensitivity of the Canadian forest sector C budget over the next century. The model operates on data derived from Canada's National Forest Biomass Inventory, from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory global soil C data base, and from Canadian data bases that document areas annually disturbed by fire, insects, and harvesting. It simulates the dynamics of biomass and soil C pools (including detritus and coarse woody debris) as they are affected by growth, decomposition, and disturbances. For the reference run of the model, we assumed unchanging climate and disturbance regimes. Under these conditions, total ecosystem C increased by 2 Gt C (2.3%) over the 100-year simulation period. In the sensitivity analysis, we explored the effects of changes in the area annually disturbed by fire and insect-induced stand mortality (-60 to +300%), growth rates (-10 to +20%), decomposition rates (-10 to +25%), and combined changes in growth and decomposition rates. In every model run, the change of total ecosystem C relative to the reference run was less than 10%. Combined changes to growth and decomposition rates yielded very small deviations from the results of the reference run (-0.8 to +1.2%). Because disturbance regime changes affect forest age-class structure as well as forest dynamics, they are expected to affect C budgets strongly. Total ecosystem C, however, is slightly more sensitive to changes in growth and decomposition parameters than to changes in disturbance regimes. Although the sensitivity analysis results suggest that C budgets are little affected by the range of parameter changes implemented here, we must emphasize that our sensitivity analyses do not account for potentially important processes, such as regeneration failure or the shifts in forest distribution.     

北极苔原和森林地区的稳定性及脆弱性与社会和环境变化

北极苔原带和北方森林(北部地区)因其分布广阔并远离农业土地利用变化及工业发展的影响,而一度被认为是地球上最后的净土.但如今这些地区如同地球上任何别的地区一样,也正经受着环境和社会变化的影响.本文总结了北部地区在全球系统中所起的作用,并提出方案以便对导致该地区对社会和环境变化敏感的那些因子进行评价.     

Are mammal olfactory signals hiding right under our noses?

Chemical communication via olfactory semiochemicals plays a central role in the social behaviour and reproduction of mammals, but even after four decades of research, only a few mammal semiochemicals have been chemically characterized. Expectations that mammal chemical signals are coded by quantitative relationships among multiple components have persisted since the earliest studies of mammal semiochemistry, and continue to direct research strategies. Nonetheless, the chemistry of mammal excretions and secretions and the characteristics of those semiochemicals that have been identified show that mammal semiochemicals are as likely to be single compounds as to be mixtures, and are as likely to be coded by the presence and absence of chemical compounds as by their quantities. There is very scant support for the view that mammal semiochemicals code signals as specific ratios between components, and no evidence that they depend on a Gestalt or a chemical image. Of 31 semiochemicals whose chemical composition is known, 15 have a single component and 16 are coded by presence/absence, one may depend on a ratio between two compounds and none of them are chemical images. The expectation that mammal chemical signals have multiple components underpins the use of multivariate statistical analyses of chromatographic data, but the ways in which multivariate statistics are commonly used to search for active mixtures leads to single messenger compounds and signals that are sent by the presence and absence of compounds being overlooked. Research on mammal semiochemicals needs to accommodate the possibility that simple qualitative differences are no less likely than complex quantitative differences to encode chemical signals.     

The International Boreal Forest Research Association: Understanding Boreal Forests and Forestry in a Changing World

Boreal forests represent a biome of the planet whose unique characteristics are changing rapidly under the influence of both human and natural pressures. These forests hold the key to current and future supply of coniferous industrial wood and at the same time play a significant role in regulating Earth's climatic system. Expected to be one of the most rapidly impacted regions of the world by future climate change, the boreal biome has already been substantially affected by global change. It is likely that if unabated, continued change will lead to impoverishment and degradation of boreal ecosystems, with consequent loss of vital services upon which human society depends. An improved systems understanding of the functioning of circumpolar boreal forests is a pressing challenge for boreal forest science and is needed in order to estimate their resilience to perturbations, to predict likely responses to the changing environment, and to design mitigation strategies. With such understanding, coordinated international efforts can be focused on developing anticipatory strategies for adaptation to, and mitigation of dangerous consequences of global change for boreal resources. The International Boreal Forest Research Association (IBFRA) provides a focus for international research on these issues and serves as a global window for boreal forest science and sustainable forest management in the boreal region.     

Simulating global soil-CO2 flux and its response to climate change

It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0.5° × 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil-CO2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil-CO2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil CO2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature,precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil-CO2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil-CO2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil-CO2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35 ％ above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.     

Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions to social and environmental change

The arctic tundra and boreal forest were once considered the last frontiers on earth because of their vast expanses remote from agricultural land-use change and industrial development. These regions are now, however, experiencing environmental and social changes that are as rapid as those occurring anywhere on earth. This paper summarizes the role of northern regions in the global system and provides a blueprint for assessing the factors that govern their sensitivity to social and environmental change.