A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

Seasonal variations in nickel and vanadium in Mont Blanc snow and ice dated from the 1960s and 1990s

Ni and V have been determined in snow and ice collected at a high altitude location (Col du D?me) near the summit of Mont Blanc on the French-Italian border; dated from the 1960s and 1990s. Ni and V were simultaneously determined by inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry. Measured concentrations range from 6 to 700 pg g(-1) and 4 to 1,100 pg g(-1) for Ni and V, respectively. The results show pronounced seasonal variations in the concentrations of both metals, with high concentration values in summer layers and much lower values for winter layers. These seasonal variations are linked especially with the existence of inversion layers during winter months. Ni and V concentrations in excess of the contributions from rock and soil dust (Ni(excess), V(excess)) appear to be mainly associated with anthropogenic inputs, with pronounced seasonal variations. Large variations in the V(excess)/Ni(excess) ratio are observed, with a higher ratio in summer than in winter. This shows differences in anthropogenic inputs at Col du D?me during the different parts of the year. The above ratio was compared with the corresponding ratios for oil combustion from stationary sources and the exhaust from gasoline and diesel engines. It appears that Ni and V concentrations at Col du D?me are probably the result of changing combinations of contributions from oil combustion for power generation, industrial and residential uses, on one side, and automobile and truck traffic, on the other side, with possibly a significant contribution from Ni smelters in Russia during winter months.     

新农药环境化学行为研究(V)-—三氟羧草醚(Acifluorfen)在土壤和水环境中的滞留、转化

从如下几方面研究了三氟羧草醚在土壤－水环境中的化学行为：一是土壤对该药的吸附，结果表明，吸附强度与土壤理化特性密切相关，Ｆｒｅｕｎｄｌｉｃｈ常数ｋｆ＝０．９４Ｗｏｍ＋０．６５Ｗｃｌａｙ－９．５９ｐＨ（ｒ＾２＝０．９４）；二是吸附机理研究，发现三氟羧草醚能与碱金属以外的许多金属离子形成配合物，并证实了与ＣＵ＾２＋形成的双核桥联合物的可能性；三是实验指出它在水中避光有一定的稳定性，不易水解；四是它在〈     

Ultrasonography in pregnancy and fetal abnormalities: Screening or diagnostic test? IPIMC 1986–1990 register data

The aim of the present study was to assess the sensitivity of ultrasound diagnosis used as a screening test in detecting major congenital anomalies in the prenatal period in a large nation-based multicentre setting. Data from the IPIMC register were collected in the period 1986–1990. One hundred and thirty-five hospitals, located in 17 out of the 20 regions in Italy, participated in the register. Study cases were 3479 infants with major congenital anomalies diagnosed at birth or in the first week of life. Subjects with chromosomal anomalies or multiple defects were excluded. The sensitivity of ultrasound prenatal diagnosis was 49.5 per cent for central nervous system anomalies, 3.8 per cent for congenital heart diseases, 17.1 per cent for gastrointestinal tract defects, 46.6 per cent for abdominal wall defects, 74.8 per cent for urinary tract anomalies, and 22.9 per cent for skeletal abnormalities. The detection rate for diaphragmatic hernia was 24.2 per cent. Overall, only 18 per cent of the defects diagnosed in utero were detected before 24 weeks' gestation. The sensitivity of prenatal diagnosis was 30.1 and 19.0 per cent in the northern, central, and southern regions, respectively. In light of its low sensitivity, ultrasonography as a screening test in the general population should be abandoned, although some improvement in its performance should be expected following adequate training of the ultrasound staff and the use of good technical equipment.     

Age-related decline in metabolic competence of small and medium-sized synaptic mitochondria

A computer-assisted morphometric investigation of cytochrome oxidase (COX) activity, selectively evidenced by preferential diaminobenzidine cytochemistry, has been carried out on synaptic mitochondria in the cerebellar cortex of adult and old rats. The ratio (R) of the area of the cytochemical precipitate (CPA) to the overall area of each mitochondrion (MA) was calculated. R refers to the fraction of the inner mitochondrial membrane actively involved in cellular respiration, thus its quantitative estimation constitutes a reliable index of the mitochondrial metabolic competence (MMC). In adult rats a significant negative correlation between MA and R values was found, while in old animals there was just a positive trend. Paired-quartile comparisons of R values showed a significant age-related decrease in small and medium-sized mitochondria, whereas the lowest and not significant age-related reduction was found in oversized organelles. A paired decrease in number and increase in size is reported to be a general trend for mitochondria during aging, but oversized organelles, according to their low R value, constitute a scanty, though functional, compensating reaction. Thus, the present findings support the argument that the currently reported age-related cellular metabolic decay appears to rely both on the decline in MMC of the small and medium-sized mitochondria, and on their specific reduction in number. This novel result is of biological relevance since it is largely the small and medium-sized mitochondria that are required for the provision of adequate amounts of ATP for actual cellular performance, while the significantly enlarged organelles are thought to represent an intermediate ultrastructural feature in mitochondrial genesis and/or remodelling.     

Pollutants and sperm quality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Male fertility and semen quality have declined over recent decades. Among other causes, exposure to environmental and occupational pollution has been...     

Sources and distributions of Cs, Pu, Pu radionuclides in the north-western Barents Sea

Sediment deposits are the ultimate sink for anthropogenic radionuclides entering the marine environment. The major sources of anthropogenic radionuclides to the Barents Sea are fallout from nuclear weapons tests, long range transport from other seas, and river and non-point freshwater supplies. In this study we investigated activity concentrations, ratios, and inventories of the anthropogenic radionuclides, ¹³⁷Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239,240Pu in dated sediment cores collected along a north-south transect in the northwestern Barents Sea. The data were used to evaluate the influence of different sources on the derived spatial and temporal patterns of anthropogenic radionuclides in seafloor sediment deposits. Activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs ranged from <0.1 Bq/kg to 10.5 Bq/kg while ^239,240Pu ranged from <0.01 Bq/kg to 2.74 Bq/kg and ²³⁸Pu activity concentrations ranged from <0.01 Bq/kg to 0.22 Bq/kg. Total inventories of ¹³⁷Cs ranged from 29.5 ± 1.5 Bq/m² to 152.7 ± 5.6 Bq/m² and for ^239,240Pu inventories (6 sediment layers only) ranged from 9.5 ± 0.3 Bq/m² to 29.7 ± 0.4 Bq/m². Source contributions varied among stations and between the investigated radionuclides. The ²³⁸Pu/^239,240Pu ratios up to 0.18 indicate discharges from nuclear fuel reprocessing plants as a main contributor of plutonium. Based on ²³⁸Pu/^239,240Pu ratio, it was calculated that up to 19-27% of plutonium is supplied from sources other than atmospheric global fallout. Taking into account Atlantic current flow trajectories and that both activity concentrations and inventories of plutonium negatively correlate with latitude, Sellafield is a major source for the Barents Sea. Concentrations and inventories of ¹³⁷Cs correlate positively with latitude and negatively with distance from the Svalbard archipelago. The ¹³⁷Cs concentrations are highest in an area of intensive melting of sea ice formed along the Siberian coast. Thus, sea ice and supplies from Svalbard may be important source of ¹³⁷Cs to the Barents Sea seafloor.     

Heavy metal distribution and speciation in the Northern Adriatic Sea

In the present study the concentrations of cobalt, copper, iron, manganese, zinc were analysed and the speciation of copper and zinc performed, with a summer and winter sampling, for two areas in the Northern Adriatic Sea and crossing at the farthest zones of the Po river-sea water interface. Results show that when salinity increases the concentrations of all investigated metals (with the exception of cobalt) present some degree of biogeochemical cycling. Copper is the element whose dissolved phase has the highest importance in metal transport across the salinity gradient. Results of speciation analysis demonstrate that the presence of excess amounts (5-8 fold) of unbound ligands confers a buffering capacity for potential inputs of dissolved metals into the Northern Adriatic Sea. The speciation of both copper and zinc in the dissolved phase was dominated by organic complexation.     

A review of medical error taxonomies: A human factors perspective

Although a large number of medical error taxonomies have been published, there is little evidence to suggest that these taxonomies have been systematically compared. This paper describes a study comparing 26 medical error taxonomies using a human factors perspective. The taxonomies were examined to determine if they classified systemic factors of medical errors and if they utilized theoretical error concepts in their classifications. Scope of classification was also examined. It was found that two-thirds of the taxonomies classified systemic factors of medical errors and only a third utilized theoretical error concepts. Medical error taxonomies based on theoretical error concepts were more likely to be generic in applicability and also more likely to classify systemic factors and psychological error mechanisms of medical errors. In addition to terminology, the medical error taxonomies also varied in terms of domain-specificity, granularity, and developmental process. Different medical error taxonomies provide different information; how these differences affect medical error management needs to be investigated.     

Wildfire seasonality and land use: when do wildfires prefer to burn?

Because of the increasing anthropogenic fire activity, understanding the role of land-use in shaping wildfire regimes has become a major concern. In the last decade, an increasing number of studies have been carried out on the relationship between land-use and wildfire patterns, in order to identify land-use types where fire behaves selectively, showing a marked preference (or avoidance) in terms of fire incidence. By contrast, the temporal aspects of the relationship between landuse types and wildfire occurrence have received far less attention. The aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the period 2000–2006 to identify land-use types where wildfires occur earlier or later than expected from a random null model. The study highlighted a close relationship between the timing of fire occurrence and land-cover that is primarily governed by two complementary processes: climatic factors that act indirectly on the timing of wildfires determining the spatial distribution of land-use types, and human population and human pressure that directly influence fire ignition. From a practical viewpoint, understanding the temporal trends of wildfires within the different land-use classes can be an effective decision-support tool for fire agencies in managing fire risk and for producing provisional models of fire behavior under changing climatic scenarios and evolving landscapes.