Modelling of Materials Policies

This paper discusses the REAP1 model and its application for the analysis of CO₂ reduction and waste management policies for Japanese petrochemicals. The pros and cons of this modelling approach in comparison to other tools is elaborated. This is followed by a discussion of the model code and the modelling results. The results show that CO₂ policies can have significant impacts on waste flows and waste policies can have significant CO₂ benefits. As a consequence both effects must be considered in policy assessment. Pricing instruments are recommended instead of regulations because of the complex physical relations in the materials life cycle that extend beyond sector boundaries. A taxation approach is superior to a subsidy approach because rebound effects can be avoided.     

Monochlorobenzene Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on monochlorobenzene was carried out for the marine environment, following methodology given in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1996). Data from analytical monitoring programmes in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area were collected and evaluated for effects and environmental concentrations. Risk is indicated by the ratio of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) to predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 27 data for fish, 24 data for invertebrates and 13 data for algae were evaluated. Acute and chronic toxicity studies were taken into account and appropriate assessment factors used to define a final PNEC value of 32 micro/l. Recent monitoring data indicate that monochlorobenzene levels in surface waters are below determination limits of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5 microg/l used in monitoring programs. Assuming that half of the lowest determination (0.1 microg/l) is typical, a PEC of 0.05 microg/l was derived. A worst case of 0.5 microg/l is assumed. PEC/PNEC ratios give safety factors of 60 to over 500, taking no account of dilution in the sea. Monochlorobenzene is not a 'toxic, persistent and liable to bioaccumulate' substance sensu the Oslo and Paris Conventions for the Prevention of Marine Pollution (OSPAR-DYNAMEC) criteria. Environmental fate and effects data indicate that current use of monochlorobenzene poses no unacceptable risk to the aquatic environment.     

Vorkommen und biologische Bedeutung der Neuraminsäure

The Science of Nature -     

Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change

The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level.     

Potential effects of soil chemical and biological properties on wood volume in Eucalyptus urophylla × Eucalyptus grandis hybrid plantations and their responses to different intensity applications of inorganic fertilizer

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Long-term and high-intensity application of inorganic fertilizer leads to a strong variation of soil characteristics. The changes in soil chemical and...     

Dichloromethane Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on dichloromethane was carried out specifically for the marine environment, following methodology given in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of 'predicted environmental concentrations' (PEC) to 'predicted no-effect concentrations' (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 23 studies for fish, 17 studies for invertebrates and 6 studies for algae were evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies were taken into account and appropriate assessment factors used to define a PNEC value of 830 microg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1983--1995) support a typical PEC for dichloromethane lower than 0.2 microg/l and a worst case PEC of 13.6 microg/l. Dichloromethane is not a 'toxic, persistent and liable to bioaccumulate' substance sensu the Oslo and Paris Conventions for the Prevention of Marine Pollution (OSPAR-DYNAMEC). The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give margins of 60 to 4000 between the PNEC and PEC, dilution within the sea would further increase these margins. It can be concluded that the present use of dichloromethane does not present a risk to the marine aquatic environment.     

Japanese carbon storage in materials

The NEAT model (Nonenergy-use Emission Accounting Tables) has been developed in order to estimate CO2 emissions caused by so-called nonenergy use of fossil fuels. The model is based on material flow accounting. The model has been applied to a number of countries in order to validate and improve its use. This paper discusses the case study for Japan. The NEAT analysis suggests that emissions in 1996 were 23 Mt higher than previously estimated based on the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This quantity equals 1.9% of the total Japanese greenhouse gas emission. It is recommended to adjust the Japanese emission accounting practice and to apply more detailed emission estimation methods in future years. Given similar results for other countries it is also recommended to improve the IPCC guidelines.     

Hydrogen and transportation: alternative scenarios

If hydrogen (H₂) is to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and oil use, it needs to displace conventional transport fuels and be produced in ways that do not generate significant greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses alternative ways H₂ can be produced, transported and used to achieve these goals. Several H₂ scenarios are developed and compared to each other. In addition, other technology options to achieve these goals are analyzed. A full fuel cycle analysis is used to compare the energy use and carbon (C) emissions of different fuel and vehicle strategies. Fuel and vehicle costs are presented as well as cost-effectiveness estimates. Lowest hydrogen fuel costs are achieved using fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The fuel supply cost for a H₂ fuel cell car would be close to those for an advanced gasoline car, once a large-scale supply system has been established. Biomass, wind, nuclear and solar sources are estimated to be considerably more expensive. However fuel cells cost much more than combustion engines. When vehicle costs are considered, climate policy incentives are probably insufficient to achieve a switch to H₂. The carbon dioxide (CO₂) mitigation cost would amount to several hundred US$ per ton of CO₂. Energy security goals and the eventual need to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations could be sufficient. Nonetheless, substantial development of related technologies, such as C capture and storage will be needed. Significant H₂ use will also require substantial market intervention during a transition period when there are too few vehicles to motivate widely available H₂ refueling.

日本的碳储量

为估计所谓的非能源用途矿物燃料排放的CO2,建立了NEAT(Nonenergy use Emission Accounting Tables,非能源排放统计表)模型.物质流动的统计是该模型的基础.NEAT模型已在许多国家应用,以便验证该模型并促进其应用.本文讨论日本的研究案例.NEAT分析表明:1996年的CO2排放量比以前政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)指导原则基础上的估计高出23t,相当于日本温室气体总排放量的1.9%.因此,在未来几年,调整日本的排放计算方法,提供更为详细的排放估计方法是可取的.鉴于其它国家的相似结果,建议改进IPCC的指导原则.