Vulnerability Assessment of Sea Level Rise Over Port Said Governorate, Egypt

An assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the city of Port Said, Egypt has been carried out using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Bruun's is used to estimate horizontal retreat, due to three scenarios of sea level rise, taking into account local subsidence rates. Overlaying horizontal retreat on land use obtained by remote sensing enabled us to estimate possible losses and socio-economic impacts. Results indicate serious physical and socio-economic impacts. It is suggested that protection measures must be carried out with emphasis on building breakwaters along the most vulnerable shoreline area.     

GIS ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF THE ROSETTA AREA, EGYPT TO IMPACTS OF SEA RISE

A study of the area, including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch), has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (slr). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use, topography, archeological sites, land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise.Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level, inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population, economic activities, total regional revenue, and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise, 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches, half of the palm cultivation, 43% of total urban clusters, which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings.Other environmental problems such as solid waste management, sanitary disposal network, deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures, in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism, promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands.     

Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt

Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost-effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness.     

GIS for Environmental Assessment of the Impacts of Urban Encroachment on Rosetta Region, Egypt

Unplanned urban expansion of the new urban cluster of Rosetta City, Egypt is reaching a critical stage. This unplanned expansion of slum areas threatens the land on which the high quality palm trees, by which Rosetta region is known, are cultivated. This research is concerned with studying the manner, rate, extent and impact of the expansion of the urban cluster of Rosetta City. A multi-temporal analysis of mainly the limits of the built up urban areas and their surrounding land cover is the main evaluation technique. By using Geographic Information Systems, it was possible to study the geographic base of the concerned area. An increase in area of the urban clusters of about 0.1 km² occurred from 1917–1945, and a second increase of over 0.07 km² occurred from 1945–1963. Just after the end of the Second World War, an abrupt increase took place in 1963–1993 that reached 1.7 km². The majority of all the urban expansion was unplanned. By studying the topographic map of Rosetta city and the urban clusters on the western bank of the river Nile, it was found that most of the urban conglomeration of the city is located on relatively elevated land. The western part of the urban area is of an elevation varying around 5.0 m, and inclining with moderate slope towards the eastern edge of the city adjacent to the river Nile. The urban expansion on inclined land has caused severe problems with the sanitary drainage, as the city lacks any sanitary drainage systems. Sanitary drainage currently operates through precipitation trenches. Sanitary sewage gather beneath the ground forming continuos streams which reach the basements of many of the monuments present.