WORLD PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.     

Ecosystem engineering potential of the gastropod Terebralia palustris (Linnaeus, 1767) in mangrove wastewater wetlands - A controlled mesocosm experiment

The effect of different sewage concentrations (0, 20, 60 and 100%), vegetation (Bare, Avicennia marina or Rhizophora mucronata) and immersion periods (immersion/emersion period of 12/12 h or 3/3 days just for 100%) conditions were studied for 6 months on survival and growth rates of Terebralia palustris (Linnaeus, 1767). Gastropods' activity and ecosystem engineering preformed at bare and A. marina planted cells and 3 sewage conditions (0, 20 and 60%) were determined. Survival rates were higher than 70% in all treatments. Growth rate decreased significantly with increasing sewage concentrations (mainly at unplanted conditions) and longer immersion periods. A complete shift (from immersion to emersion periods) and a significant decrease in mobility and consequently its engineer potential, due to sewage contamination, lead to a 3-4 fold decrease in the amount of sediment disturbed. Sewage contamination, primary producers' abundance and environmental conditions may have influenced the gastropods survival, growth and its ecosystem engineering potential.     

In vitro toxicity of selected fungicides from the groups of benzimidazoles and demethylation inhibitors to Cladobotryum dendroides and Agaricus bisporus

Twenty microfungal isolates were collected from diseased fruiting bodies of Agaricus bisporus sampled from Serbian mushroom farms during 2003–2007. Based on morphological characteristics and pathogenicity tests, the isolates were identified as Cladobotryum dendroides. The isolates of C. dendroides and A. bisporusF56 and U3 were tested for sensitivity to several selected fungicides in vitro. C. dendroides isolates were found to be more sensitive to prochloraz manganese and flusilazole + carbendazim than to the other fungicides tested (EC₅₀ values were 0.09 and 0.11 mg L^{? 1}, respectively) and weakly resistant to thiophanate-methyl (EC₅₀ values ranged between 6.53 and 12.09 mg L^{? 1}). Selectivity indexes of the tested fungicides on both C. dendroidesand A. bisporusindicated that thiophanate-methyl, cyproconazole + carbendazim and flusilazole + carbendazim had much less selective fungitoxicity than benomyl, carbendazim and prochloraz manganese.     

Proposal for selective differentiating of nerve agent G and V type with utilisation of modified Ellman’s method

We studied issues of organophosphorus agents’ analysis. Immobilised enzyme–inhibitors complexes (e.g. acetylcholinesterase-organophosphate nerve agent) were studied with modified Ellman’s biochemical method utilised for assessment of acetylcholinesterase activity. Biochemical reactions are widespread and they are the most frequent used analytical methods for determination of nerve agents. This modified method is based on the nucleophilic reactions of mono- and bispyridinium aldoximes of a type 2-PAM, MMB-4 and HI-6, their homologues and isomers with enzyme–inhibitor complexes. The procedure for a gradual analysis of G and V type, Sarin, Cyclohexylsarin, Soman, Tabun, agent VX and R-33 was proposed in terms of studied nucleophilic substitution reactions quantification results. This method enables selective determination of these chemical warfare agents. A gradual analysis was evaluated by statistic method of probabilistic calculus. This type of analysis can be used for assessment of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in very low concentrations close to hygienic limits.     

Toxicity of metalaxyl, azoxystrobin, dimethomorph, cymoxanil, zoxamide and mancozeb to Phytophthora infestans isolates from Serbia

A study of the in vitro sensitivity of 12 isolates of Phytophthora infestans to metalaxyl, azoxystrobin, dimethomorph, cymoxanil, zoxamide and mancozeb, was conducted. The isolates derived from infected potato leaves collected at eight different localities in Serbia during 2005-2007. The widest range of EC(50) values for mycelial growth of the isolates was recorded for metalaxyl. They varied from 0.3 to 3.9 μg mL(-1) and were higher than those expected in a susceptible population of P. infestans. The EC(50) values of the isolates were 0.16-0.30 μg mL(-1) for dimethomorph, 0.27-0.57 μg mL(-1) for cymoxanil, 0.0026-0.0049 μg mL(-1) for zoxamide and 2.9-5.0 μg mL(-1) for mancozeb. The results indicated that according to effective concentration (EC(50)) the 12 isolates of P. infestans were sensitive to azoxystrobin (0.019-0.074 μg mL(-1)), and intermediate resistant to metalaxyl, dimethomorph and cymoxanil. According to resistance factor, all P. infestans isolates were sensitive to dimethomorph, cymoxanil, mancozeb and zoxamide, 58.3% of isolates were sensitive to azoxystrobin and 50% to metalaxyl. Gout's scale indicated that 41.7% isolates were moderately sensitive to azoxystrobin and 50% to metalaxyl.     

Fungicide sensitivity of Trichoderma spp. from Agaricus bisporus farms in Serbia

Trichoderma species, the causal agents of green mould disease, induce great losses in Agaricus bisporus farms. Fungicides are widely used to control mushroom diseases although green mould control is encumbered with difficulties. The aims of this study were, therefore, to research in vitro toxicity of several commercial fungicides to Trichoderma isolates originating from Serbian and Bosnia-Herzegovina farms, and to evaluate the effects of pH and light on their growth. The majority of isolates demonstrated optimal growth at pH 5.0, and the rest at pH 6.0. A few isolates also grew well at pH 7. The weakest mycelial growth was noted at pH 8.0–9.0. Generally, light had an inhibitory effect on the growth of tested isolates. The isolates showed the highest susceptibility to chlorothalonil and carbendazim (ED₅₀ less than 1 mg L^?1), and were less sensitive to iprodione (ED₅₀ ranged 0.84–6.72 mg L^?1), weakly resistant to thiophanate-methyl (ED₅₀ = 3.75–24.13 mg L^?1), and resistant to trifloxystrobin (ED₅₀ = 10.25–178.23 mg L^?1). Considering the toxicity of fungicides to A. bisporus, carbendazim showed the best selective toxicity (0.02), iprodione and chlorothalonil moderate (0.16), and thiophanate-methyl the lowest (1.24), while trifloxystrobin toxicity to A. bisporus was not tested because of its inefficiency against Trichoderma isolates.     

Landscape changes in agrarian landscapes in the 1990s: the interaction between farmers and the farmed landscape. A case study from Jutland, Denmark

Recent landscape changes in a farmed landscape are analysed and related to farm and farmer characteristics. It is assumed that farm and farmer characteristics serve as mediators of large scale or macro driving forces of change-in the present case, a changing farming context including demands for a more environmentally friendly farming practise and a reduced output. The results are based on multivariate analyses of data collected from structured interviews of 160 farmers in a case study area, in central Jutland, measuring 5000 ha. The analysis shows that farmers are highly involved in landscape changes. The investigated landscape changes include creation and removal of landscape elements as well as certain management changes. The most common activity was creation of elements: hedgerows, small woodlands and conversion of rotational arable land to permanent grassland, whereas removal of elements, mainly hedgerows and semi-natural grasslands, were seen less frequently. Management changes like abandonment of permanent grassland were widespread. The results indicate a general extensification of the land use and the authors interpret the results partly as an indication of a change from productivism to a more multifunctional agricultural regime. The observed landscape changes at the farm level show a low, but structured relationship with the current farm and farmer characteristics, meaning that landscape changes were undertaken by various farmers and on various farms. On a general level, however, the age of the farmer and the duration of farm ownership seem to have a major influence on the landscape changes.