Cognitive and institutional influences on farmers’ adaptive capacity: insights into barriers and opportunities for transformative change in central Arizona

The prospect of unprecedented environmental change, combined with increasing demand on limited resources, demands adaptive responses at multiple levels. In this article, we analyze different attributes of farm-level capacity in central Arizona, USA, in relation to farmers’ responses to recent dynamism in commodity and land markets, and the institutional and social contexts of farmers’ water and production portfolios. Irrigated agriculture is at the heart of the history and identity of the American Southwest, although the future of agriculture is now threatened by the prospect of “mega-droughts,” urbanization and associated inter-sector and inter-state competition over water in an era of climatic change. We use farm-level survey data, supplemented by in-depth interviews, to explore the cross-level dimensions of capacity in the agriculture–urban nexus of central Arizona. The surveyed farmers demonstrate an interest in learning, capacity for adaptive management and risk-taking attitudes consistent with emerging theory of capacity for land use and livelihood transformation. However, many respondents perceive their self-efficacy in the face of future climatic and hydrological change as uncertain. Our study suggests that the components of transformational capacity will necessarily need to go beyond the objective resources and cognitive capacities of individuals to incorporate “linking” capacities: the political and social attributes necessary for collective strategy formation to shape choice and opportunity in the future.     

Reef coral reproduction in the eastern Pacific: Costa Rica,Panamá, and Galápagos Islands (Ecuador). II. Poritidae

A comparative study of the reproductive ecology of the zooxanthellate, scleractinian corals Porites lobata Dana and P. panamensis Verrill was conducted from 1985 to 1991 in eastern Pacific reef environments that were severly impacted by the 1982–1983 El Niño warming events. P. lobata, a presumed broadcast spawner of large colony size, is widely distributed in the equatorial eastern Pacific, whereas P. panamensis, a brooder of small colony size, is abundant only on some reefs in Panamá. Both species were gonochoric with nearly 1:1 sex ratios in large study populations except for P. lobata at Caño Island that had 14% hermaphroditic colonies. Mature, unfertilized oocytes contained numerous zooxanthellae in both Porites species, and all planula developmental stages contained zooxanthellae in P. panamensis. Year-round sampling revealed high proportions of colonies with gonads, ranging from 30 to 68% in P. lobata and from 60 to 68% in P. panamensis. No clear relationship between numbers of reproductive colonies and the thermal stability of the habitat was evident in P. lobata: percent colonies with gonads at non-upwelling sites was 48 to 68% at Caño Island (Costa Rica) and Uva Island (Panamá), and at upwelling sites 30 to 50% at Saboga Island and Taboga Island (Panamá), and the Galápagos Islands (Ecuador). Similarly, 90% of all P. panamensis colonies were reproductive at Uva Island (a non-upwelling site), and 86% were reproductive at Taboga Island (an upwelling site). Upwelling at Taboga Island is seasonal, nevertheless P. panamensis produced mature gonads or planulae over most of the year (11 mo), whereas P. lobata exhibited reproductive activity during only 2 mo (May and June). No clear lunar periodicity was observed in P. panamensis (Taboga Island), but a high proportion of P. lobata showed increased gonadal development around full and new moon, especially at Caño and Uva Islands. Estimated fecundities were relatively high for P. lobata at Caño (4000 eggs cm^-2 yr^-1) and Uva (5200 eggs cm^-2 yr^-1) Islands, and notably low (70 to 110 eggs cm^-2 yr^-1) in the Galápagos Islands. P. panamensis mean fecundity at Taboga Island was 720 planulae cm^-2 yr^-1 or 4.0 mm³ cm^-2 yr^-1, which was lower than the egg volume production of P. lobata at Caño and Uva Islands (7.0 to 10.0 mm³ cm^-2 yr^-1). The capacity of P. lobata and P. panamensis to reproduce sexually supports the notion that eastern Pacific coral reef recovery may not be dependent on long-distance dispersal from central Pacific areas. However, sexual recruits of P. lobata are absent or uncommon at all eastern Pacific study sites while recruits of P. panamensis were common to abundant only at the Uva Island study site. Asexual fragmentation in P. lobata augments recruitment locally, but plays no role in P. panamensis recruitment.     

Towards a climate change adaptation strategy for coffee communities and ecosystems in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico

The mountain chain of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas in southern Mexico is globally significant for its biodiversity and is one of the most important coffee production areas of Mexico. It provides water for several municipalities and its biosphere reserves are important tourist attractions. Much of the forest cover outside the core protected areas is in fact coffee grown under traditional forest shade. Unless this (agro)forest cover can be sustained, the biodiversity of the Sierra Madre and the environmental services it provides are at risk. We analyzed the threats to livelihoods and environment from climate change through crop suitability modeling based on downscaled climate scenarios for the period 2040 to 2069 (referred to as 2050s) and developed adaptation options through an expert workshop. Significant areas of forest and occasionally coffee are destroyed every year by wildfires, and this problem is bound to increase in a hotter and drier future climate. Widespread landslides and inundations, including on coffee farms, have recently been caused by hurricanes whose intensity is predicted to increase. A hotter climate with more irregular rainfall will be less favorable to the production of quality coffee and lower profitability may compel farmers to abandon shade coffee and expand other land uses of less biodiversity value, probably at the expense of forest. A comprehensive strategy to sustain the biodiversity, ecosystem services and livelihoods of the Sierra Madre in the face of climate change should include the promotion of biodiversity friendly coffee growing and processing practices including complex shade which can offer some hurricane protection and product diversification; payments for forest conservation and restoration from existing government programs complemented by private initiatives; diversification of income sources to mitigate risks associated with unstable environmental conditions and coffee markets; integrated fire management; development of markets that reward sustainable land use practices and forest conservation; crop insurance programs that are accessible to smallholders; and the strengthening of local capacity for adaptive resource management.     

Adaptive Capacity and Social-Environmental Change: Theoretical and Operational Modeling of Smallholder Coffee Systems Response in Mesoamerican Pacific Rim

Communities who rely directly on the natural environment for their survival typically have developed risk management strategies to enable them to avoid dangerous thresholds of change to their livelihoods. Development policy appropriate for natural resource-based communities requires an understanding of the primary drivers of social-ecological change, the ways in which affected households autonomously respond to such drivers, and the appropriate avenues for intervention to reduce vulnerability. Coffee has been, and still remains, one of the most important commodities of the Mesoamerican region, and hundreds of thousands of smallholder households in the region are dependent in some way on the coffee industry for their livelihood stability. We used the Analytical Network Process to synthesize expert knowledge on the primary drivers of livelihood change in the region as well as the most common household strategies and associated capacities necessary for effective response. The assessment identified both gradual systemic processes as well as specific environmental and market shocks as significant drivers of livelihood change across the region. Agronomic adjustments and new forms of social organization were among the more significant responses of farmers to these changes. The assessment indicates that public interventions in support of adaptation should focus on enhancing farmers’ access to market and technical information and finance, as well as on increasing the viability of farmers’ organizations and cooperatives.     

Agro-environmental sustainability assessment using multicriteria decision analysis and system analysis

Transparency and reproducibility remain challenges for sustainability assessment, particularly in developing world contexts where formal scientific information is often limited. We posit that even in such contexts, sustainability assessment can be productive and informative if the underlying assumptions about sustainability are made transparent. Thus, the process of assessment can be as instructive as the results, if not more so. In this article, we describe and discuss how we combined multicriteria decision analysis and system analysis as a unified approach to sustainability assessment. This approach is transparent, practical, flexible, and reproducible; it also facilitates the development of recommendations for enhancing sustainability. We illustrate the approach with examples from a recent environmental sustainability assessment of irrigated commercial maize production in Sinaloa, Mexico.     

DISTRIBUTION OF SEDIMENT PHOSPHORUS POOLS AND FLUXES IN RELATION TO ALUM TREATMENT1

ABSTRACT: The distribution of sediment physical characteristics, sediment phosphorus (P) pools, and laboratory‐based rates of P release from the sediments were used to identify regions and dosage for alum treatment in Wind Lake, Wisconsin. Using variations in sediment moisture content, we identified an erosional zone at depths < 1.4 m and an accumulation zone at depths > 2.6 m. Mean concentrations of porewater P, loosely‐bound P, iron‐ and aluminum‐bound P, and mean rates of P release from sediments under anoxic conditions were high in the accumulation zone compared to sediment P characteristics in the erosional zone, indicating focusing of readily mobilized sediment P pools from shallow regions and accumulation to deep regions. We determined that a future alum treatment for control of internal P loading would be most effective at depths > 2.6 in the accumulation zone. The mean rate of anoxic P release from sediments encountered in the accumulation zone (8.3 mg m^‐2 d^‐1) was used in conjunction with a summer anoxic period of 122 d, and a treatment area of 1.6 km² to estimate an internal P load of 1,600 kg to be controlled. Our results suggest that an understanding of the distribution of sediment P pools and P fluxes in lakes provides a strategy for estimating alum dosage and application areas.     

Reef coral reproduction in the eastern Pacific: Costa Rica,Panama, and Galapagos Islands (Ecuador)

Reproductive ecology of two major reef-building corals in the eastern Pacific [Pocillopora damicornis (Linnaeus) andPocillopora elegans Dana] was investigated between 1984 and 1990 in Costa Rica, Panama (Gulf of Chiriqui and Gulf of Panama), and the Galapagos Islands (Ecuador) following the 1982–83 El Niño disturbance. Mature spermatocytes and oocytes were found in both species and were usually present in the same polyp in nearly equal ratios. Numerous zooxanthellae were observed in mature, unfertilized oocytes. Although spawning in field populations was not observed, it is likely that both pocilloporids are simultaneous hermaphroditic spawners, as evidenced by the disappearance of mature gametes after full moon. This is in contrast with most known pocilloporid corals that brood and release planula larvae. Corals were reproductively most active in the thermally stable environments of Costa Rica and the Gulf of Chiriqui (Panama) where 32 to 90% of all colonies contained gametes. In the moderately varying thermal conditions in the Galapagos Islands, 16 to 40% of colonies contained gametes, and in the pronounced seasonal upwelling environment of the Pearl Islands (Panama) only 6 to 18% of colonies contained gametes. Year-round reproduction occurred in Costa Rica and the Gulf of Chiriqui, whereas reproduction was confined to warm periods in the seasonally varying environments of the Galapagos Islands and the Gulf of Panama. Pocilloporid corals in Costa Rica and the Gulf of Chiriqui demonstrated lunar spawning activity, with mature gametes present a few days before and after full moon. Some limited spawning may have occurred also at new moon. While frequent gamete maturation has been demonstrated in this study, the relatively low rates of larval recruitment occurring on eastern Pacific coral reefs disturbed by the 1982–83 El Niño suggest that the recovery of important frame-building corals could be greatly prolonged.     

A stakeholder driven process to reduce vulnerability to climate change in Hermosillo,Sonora, Mexico

While there is a growing body of knowledge on potential impacts of climate change on water availability, there has been much less empirical research on exploring the viability of particular adaptation options. The participation of stakeholders in defining appropriate adaptation strategies is increasingly recognized as a critical element in the translation of climate change impact research into effective actions to reduce future vulnerability, yet the process by which stakeholders are included in such initiatives is not well-defined. This article presents the results of a pilot project in which a participatory approach was employed to identify and evaluate adaptation options to climate change scenarios for Sonora’s capital city, Hermosillo. In an iterative process, stakeholders representing different water users and managers in the city met to discuss climate change scenarios, identify specific adaptation options, and evaluate a subset of options for possible future implementation. This process enabled the focus of the investigation on those adaptations that addressed not only concerns with the potential future impacts of climate change but also the immediate and pressing concerns about development patterns and water use in the city. Two of the adaptations to climate change identified by stakeholders would also reduce energy demand. The simplicity of the approach makes it a feasible model for adaptation initiatives in other regions of Mexico and in other countries in Latin America.

Adaptation in a multi-stressor environment: perceptions and responses to climatic and economic risks by coffee growers in Mesoamerica

While climate change adaptation policy has tended to focus on planned adaptation interventions, in many vulnerable communities, adaptation will consist of autonomous, “unplanned” actions by individuals who are responding to multiple simultaneous sources of change. Their actions are likely not only to affect their own future vulnerability, but, through changes in livelihoods and resource use, the vulnerability of their community and resource base. In this paper, we document the autonomous changes to livelihood strategies adopted by smallholder coffee farmers in four Mesoamerican countries (Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and Costa Rica). Our aim is to gain insight into the process of autonomous adaptation by proxy: through an assessment of how farmers explain their choices in relation to distinct stressors; and an understanding of the set of choices available to farmers. We find that climatic stress is a feature in decision making, but not the dominant driver. Nevertheless, the farmers in our sample are evidently flexible, adaptive, and experimental in relation to changing circumstances. Whether their autonomous responses to diverse stressors will result in a reduction in risk over time may well depend on the extent to which policy, agricultural research, and rural investments build on the inherent logic of these strategies.