Conservation and Management for Multiple Species: Integrating Field Research and Modeling into Management Decisions

Multiple-species reserves aim at supporting viable populations of selected species. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a group of methods for predicting such measures as extinction risk based on species-specific data. These methods include models that simulate the dynamics of a population or a metapopulation. A PVA model for the California gnatcatcher in Orange County was developed with landscape (GIS) data on the habitat characteristics and requirements and demographic data on population dynamics of the species. The potential applications of this model include sensitivity analysis that provides guidance for planning fieldwork, designing reserves, evaluating management options, and assessing human impact. The method can be extended to multiple species by combining habitat suitability maps for selected species with weights based on the threat faced by each species, and the contribution of habitat patches to the persistence of each species. These applications and extensions, together with the ability of the model to combine habitat and demographic data, make PVA a powerful tool for the design, conservation, and management of multiple species reserves.     

Combustion as the Principal Source of Carbonaceous Aerosol in the Ohio River Valley

Organic and elemental carbon and a number of carboxylic acids and n-alkanes were measured in aerosol samples collected at three sites in the Ohio River Valley between October 1980 and August 1981. Approximately 100 filters were analyzed for organic and elemental carbon for each site. For the 11-month period organic and elemental carbon comprised about 19 percent of the total aerosol mass with about two-thirds of the carbon as organic. Regression analysis showed that the principal source of organic carbon was combustion. The measurements of the specific organic compounds indicated a weak biogenic component to the organic aerosol.     

Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.     

Fire Management,Managed Relocation,and Land Conservation Options for Long‐Lived Obligate Seeding Plants under Global Changes in Climate,Urbanization, and Fire Regime

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long‐lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire‐prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean‐type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long‐lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land‐use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land‐use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. Manejo de Incendios, Reubicación Administrada y Opciones de Conservación de Suelo para Plantas de Vida Larga con Sembrado Obligado bajo los Cambios Globales en el Clima, la Urbanización y el Régimen de Incendios     

Dispersal, competition, and shifting patterns of diversity in a degraded oak savanna

Diversity is a balance between processes that add and limit species (e.g., dispersal vs. competition), but reconciling their contributions remains a challenge. Recruit-ment-based models predict that dispersal barriers are most limiting for diversity, while competition-based models predict that dispersal matters only when competition is minimized. Testing these models is difficult because their influence varies with scale and site productivity. In a degraded oak savanna, we used plot-level (seed additions, burning) and site-level (proportions of regional functional groups found locally) analyses in areas with variable soil depth to examine how dispersal and competition influence diversity. At the plot level, added species persisted where they were formerly absent, but few established naturally despite fire-induced resource enrichment and nearby populations, revealing the importance of dispersal limitation for diversity. This result did not vary with soil depth or standing crop. Although competition could not prevent establishment in unburned plots, it significantly lowered survival, indicating that resource limitations exacerbate dispersal inefficiencies. At the site level, the concordance between regional and local diversity for native species was associated with soil depth heterogeneity, not dispersal or competition. This suggests that persistence is determined primarily by the influence of the environment on population demographics. Given that the formation of new populations is unlikely, those remaining appear to be confined to optimal habitat where they resist competitive or stochastic displacement, possibly explaining why species loss is rare despite substantial habitat loss and invasion. For exotics, there was no relationship between diversity and soil depth heterogeneity. Annuals with presumed dispersal capabilities were significantly overrepresented in all sites while perennial forbs, the largest regional functional group, were significantly underrepresented. We interpret the native-exotic discrepancies as reflecting the recent arrival of exotics (150 years ago), suggesting that local establishment occurs slowly even for species with regional prevalence. The accumulation lag may be explained by the need for founder populations to be demographically stable; otherwise persistence requires continual immigration favoring overrepresentation by dispersers. Our findings support the view that dispersal limitation restricts diversity within plant communities, but suggests that the impacts of environment on demographic performance ultimately determine the pattern and rate of community assembly.     

Quantification of Extinction Risk: IUCN's System for Classifying Threatened Species

Abstract: The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species was increasingly used during the 1980s to assess the conservation status of species for policy and planning purposes. This use stimulated the development of a new set of quantitative criteria for listing species in the categories of threat: critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable. These criteria, which were intended to be applicable to all species except microorganisms, were part of a broader system for classifying threatened species and were fully implemented by IUCN in 2000. The system and the criteria have been widely used by conservation practitioners and scientists and now underpin one indicator being used to assess the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 biodiversity target. We describe the process and the technical background to the IUCN Red List system. The criteria refer to fundamental biological processes underlying population decline and extinction. But given major differences between species, the threatening processes affecting them, and the paucity of knowledge relating to most species, the IUCN system had to be both broad and flexible to be applicable to the majority of described species. The system was designed to measure the symptoms of extinction risk, and uses 5 independent criteria relating to aspects of population loss and decline of range size. A species is assigned to a threat category if it meets the quantitative threshold for at least one criterion. The criteria and the accompanying rules and guidelines used by IUCN are intended to increase the consistency, transparency, and validity of its categorization system, but it necessitates some compromises that affect the applicability of the system and the species lists that result. In particular, choices were made over the assessment of uncertainty, poorly known species, depleted species, population decline, restricted ranges, and rarity; all of these affect the way red lists should be viewed and used. Processes related to priority setting and the development of national red lists need to take account of some assumptions in the formulation of the criteria.     

Herbivory limits recruitment in an old-field seed addition experiment

Environmental variability can promote coexistence by creating establishment sites for rare plants, but low diversity in anthropogenic grasslands suggests that this variability may be eliminated (homogenization hypothesis) or inaccessible (barrier hypothesis). We explore these alternatives on the northern Great Plains, where 11 million hectares have been transformed by multiple environmental changes, but the causes of species loss are unclear. In a degraded grassland, we increased environmental variability by manipulating competition and herbivory along gradients of fertility and disturbance, and we circumvented dispersal barriers by adding 1.2 million seeds of five functionally distinct species at varying densities. The experiment ended after 12 weeks due to the direct and indirect effects of unapparent small native herbivores, which were barriers to population establishment by the added species. The direct cause of recruitment failure was browsing. The indirect cause was associated with competition from invasive plants that appeared to be more tolerant or resistant to herbivory. Variability in fertility, disturbance, propagule pressure, and competition had relatively minor impacts on colonization by the added species because herbivores controlled recruitment in most environments. Recruitment outside the herbivore exclosures was mostly by unpalatable exotics, suggesting a possible link between invasion success and herbivore resistance for some introduced plants.     

Assortative mating by carotenoid-based plumage colour: a quality indicator in American goldfinches,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Carduelis tristis</Emphasis>

We investigated the mating patterns in 22 breeding pairs of wild American goldfinches (Carduelis tristis) with respect to their body size, condition, and carotenoid-based, yellow plumage colour. Using reflectance spectrometry, we objectively quantified plumage colours across the bird-visible wavelengths, revealing a unexpected UV peak in the reflectance spectrum from yellow feathers. We summarized our colour measurements using a principal components analysis to create a single variable, carotenoid PC1, that represents the intensity of this carotenoid-based yellow colour, a measure of phenotypic quality in this species. We found no evidence of assortative mating with respect to measures of body size or condition but there was positive assortative mating by carotenoid PC1, such that the yellow plumage colours of males and females were significantly correlated within pairs. We argue that the yellow carotenoid coloration of goldfinches may be important in mutual mate choice and, thus, that sexual selection in this species may act upon female ornamentation, as well as the more obvious plumage signals of males. Because assortative mating results in an increase in genetic variance, we suggest that this might be a mechanism that maintains variance in ornamental traits in spite of the variance-eroding effects of sexual selection.     

Community‐based preparedness programmes and the 2009 Australian bushfires: policy implications derived from applying theory

The Victorian Country Fire Authority in Australia runs the Community Fireguard (CFG) programme to assist individuals and communities in preparing for fire. The objective of this qualitative research was to understand the impact of CFG groups on their members' fire preparedness and response during the 2009 Australian bushfires. Social connectedness emerged as a strong theme, leading to an analysis of data using social capital theory. The main strength of the CFG programme was that it was driven by innovative community members; however, concerns arose regarding the extent to which the programme covered all vulnerable areas, which led the research team to explore the theory of diffusion of innovation. The article concludes by stepping back from the evaluation and using both applied theories to reflect on broad options for community fire preparedness programmes in general. The exercise produced two contrasting options for principles underlying community fire preparedness programmes.