A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Mixing hazard evaluation of organic peroxides with other chemicals

Organic peroxides (POs) have been widely used in chemical industries as initiators of polymerization, hardening or bridge formation agents, and they are known for its self-reactive and also mixing hazard characteristics when mixed with other chemicals such as acids and alkalis. It is the purpose of this investigation to propose a simple but useful evaluation flow of mixing hazards of POs with other chemicals using conventional experimental techniques such as a glass test tube test, Dewar vessel test and DSC is proposed. 7 kinds of POs (DEPD, THP, TBEH, TBTC, MEKPO, DTBP, THHP) were mixed with sulfuric acids with various concentration, sodium hydroxide solutions, -iron(III) oxide and acrylonitrile (AN).

Based on the proposed evaluation flow the testing results were classified into 4 ranks due to the hazard criteria. Futhermore DEPD/acrylonitrile mixtures were investigated in more detail and the influences of the mixing ratio and the stirring speed were discussed.     

Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population

Fresh water is one of the most important resources required for human existence, and ensuring its stable supply is a critical issue for sustainable development. The effects of a general set of agriculture and water management adaptations on the size of the world’s water-stressed population were assessed for a specific but consistent scenario on socio-economic development and climate change during the 21st century. To maintain consistency with agricultural land use change, we developed a grid-based water supply–demand model integrated with an agro-land use model and evaluated the water-stressed population using a water withdrawals-to-availability ratio for river basins. Our evaluation shows that, if no adaptation options are implemented, the world’s water-stressed population will increase from 1.8 billion in 2000 to about 3.3 billion in 2050, and then remain fairly constant. The population and economic growth rather than climate change will be dominant factors of this increase. Significant increase in the water-stressed population will occur in regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, India, Other South Asia, China and Southeast Asia. The key adaptation options differ by region, depending on dominant crops, increase in crop demand and so on. For instance, ‘improvement of irrigation efficiency’ and ‘enhancement of reclamation water’ seem to be one of important options to reduce the water stress in Southeast Asia, and North Africa and the Middle East, respectively. The worldwide implementation of adaptation options could decrease the water-stressed population by about 5 % and 7–17 %, relative to the scenario without adaptations, in 2050 and 2100, respectively.     

Risk of Hunger Under Climate Change, Social Disparity, and Agroproductivity Scenarios

Considering the projected population growth in the twenty-first century, some studies have indicated that global warming may have negative impacts on the risk of hunger. These conclusions were derived based on assumptions related to social and technological scenarios that involve substantial and influential uncertainties. In this paper, focusing on agrotechnology and food access disparity, we analyzed food availability and risk of hunger under the combined scenarios of food demands and agroproductivity with and without climate change by 2100 for the B2 scenario in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The results of this study suggest that (1) future food demand can be satisfied globally under all assumed combined scenarios, and (2) a reduction of food access disparity and increased progress in productivity are just as important as climate change mitigation for reducing the risk of hunger.     

Modeling of power plant impacts on fish populations

A simulation model was developed for assessing the effects of power plant impacts on fish populations. The model was based on biomass changes in a fish population that divided into 4 life stages: eggs, larvae, juveniles, and adults. Metabolism of fish was included in the model as assimilation and respiration with the effects of temperature push-pull regulation. A cohort technique was used for life stage transfers in the young stages. Compensation was included in terms of density-dependent mortality of the young fish. Power plant impacts on a fish population included entrainment (eggs and larvae) and impingement (juveniles and adults).The model was applied to the gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) population in Pool 14 of the Mississippi River in Illinois and lowa. The nearby nuclear power plant, the Quad-Cities Station, is located on the Illinois side. The simulation of the model with the 1976 field data estimates of the power plant entrainment and impingement predicted a 10 percent potential reduction of the population over 30 years. The simulated reduction of the population with the effects of different river flows showed that the result with the 1976 river flow data gave 1.5 times higher reduction than the results with data of other plant operation years, 1972 through 1975. Because the 1976 data recorded low river flow, the 10 percent reduction quoted above may be high.     

Characterization of polychlorinated biphenyls and brominated flame retardants in surface soils from Surabaya, Indonesia

In this study, soil contamination by PCBs, PBDEs, HBCDs and two novel BFRs such as 1,2-bis-(2,4,6-tribromopenoxy) ethane (BTBPE) and decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) in various locations such as industrial, urban, rural, dumping site and agricultural areas of Surabaya, Indonesia has been characterized in order to evaluate their contamination status, profiles, potential sources, fate and behavior. Range and median concentrations of PCBs, PBDEs, HBCDs, BTBPE and DBDPE were ND - 9.6 (1.2), 0.069 - 24 (7.4), ND - 1.8 (0.48), ND - 1.7 (0.14) and ND - 7.6 (2.2) ng g⁻¹ dw, respectively. Industrial, urban and dumping areas were inventoried as the main sources of these pollutants. Decreasing gradient levels were observed for these contaminants from industrial district, urban, dumping site, rural and agricultural areas, in that order. Furthermore, organic carbon contents and proximity to the point sources were found as the major controlling factors. Contaminant profiles were characterized by the predominance of hexa-, hepta- and penta-homologues for PCBs; deca-, nona- and octa- for PBDEs and α-isomer for HBCDs. Product mixtures such as Ar1260/KC600 and Ar1254/KC500 for PCBs, deca- and octa-BDEs for PBDEs were the possible common formulations used in study area. To our knowledge, this is a first comprehensive study on characterization of soil contamination by PCBs, PBDEs and HBCDs together with two novel BFRs in a highly industrialized city located in tropical region. This study provides baseline information for establishing national monitoring programs in Indonesia.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in paddy soils and river sediments in Akita, Japan

Paddy soils and sediments from the Yoneshirogawa, Omonogawa, and Koyoshigawa River Basins in Akita were analyzed for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs). The levels and compositions in those samples including soils from non-agricultural areas (non-agricultural soils) were investigated using isomer-specific analysis to determine characteristic sources. The PCDD/PCDF compositions in the samples were compared with respect to possible sources. The PCDD/PCDF concentrations in paddy soils were much higher than those in the non-agricultural soils and much higher than those found in other parts of Japan. Although PCDD/PCDFs were ubiquitous in sediments from river sources to mouths of the respective river basins, those concentrations were much lower than those from paddy soils and non-agricultural soils, and from other parts of Japan. Comparison of PCDD/PCDF homologues and isomer compositions for samples indicated that compositions of paddy soils and sediments, except for those from river sources, had similar characteristics to PCDD/PCDFs originating from impurities in herbicides, 2,4,6-trichlorophenyl 4-nitrophenyl ether (CNP) and pentachlorophenol (PCP), and that compositions of river-source sediments and non-agricultural soils resembled those of atmospheric depositions. Results of statistical analyses suggest that PCDD/PCDF contamination of paddy soils and sediments is attributable mainly to three sources: CNP, PCP, and atmospheric deposition. Results of this study also demonstrate that CNP and PCP are not only important contaminants of local areas of Japan, but that they exist throughout Akita, in northern Japan. We therefore conclude that PCDD/PCDF pollution caused by those compounds has a widespread influence on paddy soils and river sediments in Japan.     

Separation, synthesis and estrogenic activity of 4-nonylphenols: two sets of new diastereomeric isomers in a commercial mixture

Two sets of new diastereomeric 4-nonylphenol (NP) isomers [4-(3,4-dimethylheptan-4-yl)phenol (344NP, NP-J, L) and 4-(3,4-dimethylheptan-3-yl)phenol (343NP, NP-K, P)] were separated from a commercial NP mixture. The mixture of these diastereomers was synthesized at the same time by a single Friedel-Crafts reaction of 3,4-dimethyl-4-heptanol and phenol, and the mixture was separated into individual NPs by HPLC equipped with Hypercarb column. For the first time, in this study the stereostructure-estrogenic activity relationship of NP diastereomers was investigated. The NP isomers (NP-L and NP-P) having the beta-methyl group over the benzene ring were found to be 2-4 times more estrogenic than their diastereomers (NP-J and NP-K). In the case of the other set of diastereomer [4-(3,5-dimethylheptan-3-yl)phenol, (353NP, NP-E, G)] containing gamma-methyl group in the molecule, the gamma-methyl proton signal (delta 0.49) in the more estrogenic isomer (NP-G) also appeared in a higher field than the corresponding methyl signal (delta 0.76) of the less estrogenic isomer (NP-E).