Evaluation of a real-time monitoring system for river quality — a trade-off between risk attitudes,costs, and uncertainty

Uncertainty is definitely one of the key topics in environmental assessment and management. Typically, attempts to reduce uncertainty are subject to expenses. But how to compare and trade-off expenses and the reduced uncertainty? They only seldom allow the use of a single unit. Instead, the whole analysis and decision procedure is very subjective. This paper presents one approach to handle such problems, namely the combined use of Bayesian influence diagrams, and probabilistic risk attitude analysis. The approach was used in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. A trade-off analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic utility required for investments in the respective systems, and accordingly illuminated the impact of the uncertainties involved on inference and decision-making with various risk attitudes and discount rates.     

洪水是否在增长?

洪灾的消息越来越频繁,越来越引人注目.很多人对洪水是否比以前增长了产生了疑问.很多情况下洪水是增长了,然而也有很多河流洪水是降低的.气候因素导致了许多这样的变化,但是人为产生的流域变化更加重要.洪水造成的危害则毫无疑问是增长的.剧烈的城市化,尤其是在亚洲和非洲,造成了人们居住在容易受到洪水危害的河流和三角洲地区.     

First-trimester prenatal diagnosis of aspartylglucosaminuria

Fetal aspartylglucosaminuria (AGU) was studied during the first trimester of pregnancy in six at-risk pregnancies using chorionic villus samples. The activity of aspartylglucosaminidase (AGA) was high in five cases, indicating an unaffected fetus. This was confirmed through delivery of healthy newborns with a normal pattern of urinary oligosaccharides. Low enzyme activity in an uncultured biopsy specimen and in cultured amniotic fluid cells in one case demonstrated that the fetus was affected. The pregnancy was terminated and the prenatal diagnosis was confirmed by showing reduced AGA activity in cultured fibroblasts of the fetus.     

A decision framework for possible remediation of contaminated sediments in the River Kymijoki, Finland

Background, aim, and scope  The paper describes the spatial contamination of the River Kymijoki, South-Eastern Finland, and the coastal region of the Gulf of Finland with PCDD/Fs and mercury. The findings of ecotoxicologial and human health studies are also reported, including environmental and human risk assessments. Sediments from the River Kymijoki, draining into the Gulf of Finland, have been heavily polluted by the pulp and paper industry and by chemical industries. A wood preservative, known as Ky-5, was manufactured in the upper reaches of the river between 1940 and 1984 causing severe pollution of river sediments with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF). Moreover, the sediments have been polluted with mercury (Hg) from chlor-alkali production and the use of Hg as a slimicide in pulp and paper manufacturing. Materials and methods  An extensive sediment survey was conducted as well as sediment transport modeling, toxicity screening of sediment invertebrates, and a survey of contaminant bioaccumulation in invertebrates and fish. Studies on human exposure to PCDD/Fs and the possible effects on hypermineralization of teeth as well as an epidemiological study to reveal increased cancer risk were also conducted. An assessment of the ecological and human health risks with a null hypothesis (no remediation) was undertaken. Results  The sediment survey revealed severe contamination of river and coastal sediments with PCDD/Fs and Hg. The total volume of contaminated sediments was estimated to reach 5 × 10⁶ m³ and hot spots with extremely high concentrations (max 292,000 ng g⁻¹ or 1,060 ng I-TEQ g⁻¹ d.w.) were located immediately downstream from the pollution source (approximately 90,000 m³). Sediment contamination was accompanied by changes in benthic assemblages, but direct effects were masked by many factors. The fish showed only slightly elevated PCDD/F levels in muscle, but orders of magnitude higher in the liver compared with reference freshwater sites and the Baltic Sea. The concentrations in human fat did not reveal high human exposure in the Kymijoki area in general and was lower than in sea fishermen. The relative risk for total cancer among farmers was marginally higher (RR = 1.13) among those living close to the river, compared with farmers living further away, and the possibility of increased cancer risk cannot be ruled out. A conservative risk assessment revealed that the present probability of exceeding the WHO upper exposure limit of 4 pg WHO-TEQ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs was 6%. The probability of exceeding the WHO limit value of 0.23 μg kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for methyl mercury was estimated to be notably higher at 62%. Based on these studies and the estimated risks connected with different remediation techniques a general remediation plan with cost benefit analysis was generated for several sub-regions in the river. Dredging, on-site treatment, and a close disposal of the most contaminated sediments (90,000 m³) was suggested as the first phase of the remediation. The decision regarding the start of remediation will be made during autumn 2008. Conclusions  The sediments in the River Kymijoki are heavily polluted with PCDD/Fs and mercury from earlier chlorophenol, chlor-alkali, and pulp and paper manufacturing. A continuous transport of contaminants is taking place to the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The highly increased PCDD/F and Hg levels in river sediments pose an ecotoxicological risk to benthic fauna, to fish-eating predators and probably to human health. The risks posed by mercury exceed those from PCDD/Fs and need to be evaluated for (former) chlor-alkali sites and other mercury releasing industries as one basis for remediation decision making. Recommendations and perspectives  The studies form the basis of a risk management strategy and a plan for possible remediation of contaminated sediments currently under consideration in the Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre. It is recommended that a detailed restoration plan for the most seriously contaminated areas should be undertaken. Based on current knowledge, the restoration of the whole river is not feasible, considering the current risk caused by the contaminated sediment in the river and the costs of an extensive restoration project. The experiences gained in the present case should be utilized in the evaluation of PCDD/F- and mercury-contaminated sites in other countries. The case demonstrates that the historic reservoirs are of contemporary relevance and should be addressed, e.g., in the national implementation plans of the Stockholm Convention. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Appendix

Abstract

An atrazine‐degrading bacterial isolate (M91–3) was able to utilize simazine and cyanazine as N sources for glucose‐dependent growth. The degradation of these three 5‐triazine herbicides was also investigated in binary and ternary mixtures. The organism used atrazine and simazine indiscriminately, whereas cyanazine degradation was slow and delayed until the depletion of the two other herbicides. There was no apparent effect of other commonly used herbicides on the rate of atrazine degradation by M91–3.     

Mineralization of phenanthrene and fluoranthene in yardwaste compost

The purpose of the study was to evaluate the potential of phenanthrene and fluoranthene biodegradation in yardwaste compost materials. These polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons were chosen for this work because they are relatively readily biodegradable and ubiquitous in the environment. Compost samples were incubated in biometers with 14C-labeled phenanthrene and the evolution of "4CO2 was assessed as a measure of mineralization. The '4CO2 evolution varied widely among replicate biometers, possibly as the result of (1) uneven and patchy colonization of phenanthrene-degrading microorganisms on compost particles, and (2) non-uniform dispersion of the labeled substrate spike into the yardwaste microenvironment. Mineralization of phenanthrene reached about 40%extent of 14CO2 evolution at best before leveling off, but the maximum varied from sample to sample and could be as low as 1%after three months. Active mineralization occurred at mesophilic and thermophilic temperatures. Methanol extraction was used to recover "4C from biometer samples that were spiked with "4C-labeled phenanthrene. Extraction for 24-48 h yielded 1-14% recovery of 14C, depending on the length of the preceding incubation. The low extraction yield and relatively low maximum mineralization(<40%) indicated that residual phenanthrene was sorbed and bound within the compost matrix in the biometer. Amendment ofbiometers with 0.05% Tween 80 or addition of water did not consistently enhance the mineralization. Variability in mineralization was greatly reduced in liquid samples taken from pre-enriched compost samples. Mineralization of 14C-labeled fluoranthene was negligible in biometers but could be stimulated by pre-enrichment with salicylate or naphthalene. Pre-enrichment also accelerated the mineralization of phenanthrene.     

Even-Aged and Uneven-Aged Forest Management in Boreal Fennoscandia: A Review

Since WWII, forest management in Fennoscandia has primarily been based on even-aged stand management, clear cut harvesting and thinning from below. As an alternative, uneven-aged management, based on selection cutting of individual trees or small groups of trees, has been proposed. In this review we discuss the theoretical aspects of ecology and economics of the two management approaches. We also review peer-reviewed studies from boreal Fennoscandia, which have aimed at comparing the outcomes of uneven-aged and the conventional even-aged forest management. According to a common view the main obstacle of practicing uneven-aged forestry is its low economic performance. However, the reviewed studies did not offer any straightforward support for this view and several studies have found uneven-aged management to be fully competitive with existing even-aged management. Studies on the ecological aspects indicated that selection cuttings maintain mature or late-successional forest characteristics and species assemblages better than even-aged management, at least at the stand scale and in the short term. We conclude that although the number of relevant studies has increased in recent years, the ecological and economic performance of alternative management methods still remains poorly examined, especially for those stands with multiple tree species and also at wider spatial and temporal scales. For future research we advocate a strategy that fully takes into consideration the interdisciplinary nature of forest management and is better connected to social goals and latest theoretical and methodological developments in ecology and economics.     

Backyard of the rich north: the climate change-related vicious circle of the Arctic zone

The Arctic zone is full of controversies, unknowns, contrasts, and challenges. The following example is enlightening. Saudi Arabia is a country that has been considered to have almost unlimited possibilities because of its enormous oil earnings. The country has US$60 thousand million purchasing power parity oil income each year for its mere 22 million inhabitants. Astonishingly, the Arctic zone's income from oil, gas, and minerals is at least as large as that of Saudi Arabia, modestly estimated, but the Arctic has less than 4 million people. Most money, however, flows away from the tundra, yet social and environmental problems remain there. A part of the side effect of consuming these resources-largely fossil fuels-returns to the Arctic in the form of greenhouse warming and all its consequences. The Arctic zone now warms at approximately double the rate of the world average.     

Distribution of a marginal population of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus edulis</Emphasis>: responses to biotic and abiotic processes at different spatial scales

Physical and biological processes interact to produce pattern in nature. Pattern is scale dependent as processes generating pattern are heterogeneous in time and space. We tested some causes of variation in abundance and distribution of three marginal populations of sublittoral blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, in the non-tidal northeastern Baltic Sea. We studied the role of substrate inclination, perennial algae and siltation along local wave exposure gradients on mussel distribution over a regional salinity gradient. We found marked differences on regional scales (p < 0.001) with lower densities and biomasses of mussels with declining salinity. Along local gradients, mussel densities increased with increasing exposure (p < 0.001) and declining slope and sedimentation (p < 0.01). Site specifically, densities of blue mussels and the perennial red algae, Furcellaria lumbricalis, were positively related, results supported by a colonisation experiment. Also, young post-recruits showed significant relations to adult biomass, wave exposure, algal biomass, bottom slope and sediment cover. Findings showed that the relative importance of the determinants affecting blue mussels at the edge of their range vary with scale and are affected by the density and size structure of mussel populations. The study provides an indication of the types of factors that may be invoked as causes of spatial variation in marginal blue mussel populations and reinforces the need to consider multiple aspects when distributional patterns are assessed.