Carbon mitigation potential and costs of forestry options in Brazil,China, India,Indonesia, Mexico,the Philippines and Tanzania

This paper summarizes studies of carbon (C) mitigation potential and costs of about 40 forestry options in seven developing countries. Each study uses the same methodological approach – Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) – to estimate the above parameters between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios. Coupled with data on a per ha basis on C sequestration or avoidance, and costs and benefits, it allows the estimation of monetary benefit per Mg C, and the total costs and carbon potential. The results show that about half (3.0 Pg C) the cumulative mitigation potential of 6.2 Petagram (Pg) C between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries (about 200× 10⁶ Mg C yr^-1) could be achieved at a negative cost and the remainder at costs ranging up to $100 Mg C^-1. About 5 Pg C could be achieved, at a cost less than $20 per Mg C. Negative cost potential indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of these options. The achievable potential is likely to be smaller, however, due to market, institutional, and sociocultural barriers that can delay or prevent the implementation of the analyzed options.     

Analysis of leakage in carbon sequestration projects in forestry: a case study of upper magat watershed,Philippines

The role of forestry projects in carbon conservation and sequestration is receiving much attention because of their role in the mitigation of climate change. The main objective of the study is to analyze the potential of the Upper Magat Watershed for a carbon sequestration project. The three main development components of the project are forest conservation: tree plantations, and agroforestry farm development. At Year 30, the watershed can attain a net carbon benefit of 19.5 M tC at a cost of US$ 34.5 M. The potential leakage of the project is estimated using historical experience in technology adoption in watershed areas in the Philippines and a high adoption rate. Two leakage scenarios were used: baseline and project leakage scenarios. Most of the leakage occurs in the first 10 years of the project as displacement of livelihood occurs during this time. The carbon lost via leakage is estimated to be 3.7 M tC in the historical adoption scenario, and 8.1 M tC under the enhanced adoption scenario.     

Climate Change Mitigation Activities in the Philippine Forestry Sector: Application of the COMAP Model

The forest sector in the Philippines has the potential to be amajor sink for carbon (C). The present study was conducted to evaluatepotential forestry mitigation options in the Philippines using the Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP)model. The baseline scenario (BAU) assumes that current trends continue upto the year 2030 (`business-as-usual'). Two mitigation scenarios wereevaluated: high scenario (HS) and low scenario (LS). The former ispatterned largely from the government's forest master plan while thelatter assumes a 50% lower success rate of the master plan.The results of the analyses show that by 2030, the total C stock of thePhilippine forest sector in the baseline scenario decreases to 814× 10⁶ Mg C,down by 37% compared to the 1990 level. The C stocks of the HS andLS mitigation scenarios were 22% and 18% higher than the BAU,respectively. Of the mitigation options assessed, long rotation plantationsand forest protection activities produce the greatest C gain (199 and 104× 10⁶ Mg, respectively under HS). The not present value (NPV)of benefits is highest in the bioenergyoption with $24.48 per Mg C (excluding opportunity costs) at a realdiscount rate of 12%. However, the investment and life cycle costs arealso highest using bioenergy.The study also estimated potential investments needed under the mitigationscenarios. The investment requirement for the LS amounts to $263× 10⁶ while for the HS it is $748 × 10⁶. Finally, policy issues anddecisions that may be useful for the Philippines to evaluate LULUCFmitigation options under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, are identified anddiscussed.     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.     

People, power and timber: The politics of community-based forest management

The potential of devolved conservation to empower people, reduce poverty and protect forest resources has yet to be realized in much of the developing world. This is particularly evident in the Philippines where the central state paradoxically recentralizes political power through devolution at the policy, program and project level in forest management. We investigate how centralized state power emanates through devolved networks to affect the success of local timber utilization involving community-based forest management (CBFM) on Mindanao Island, the southern Philippines. By examining broader shifts from centralized to devolved forest management, results suggest that centralized political power continues to control and adversely affect local uses of timber through CBFM. We discuss how in the process of state authorities recentralizing devolved rights and responsibility over timber management, community-based logging operations were threatened but sustained by members relying on community-based structures and their own capabilities. The conclusion asserts that broader state processes of devolving power over timber management remains constrained by political motives and interests and so largely fails to fulfill the objectives of community-based forest management.     

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus (REDD+) in the Philippines: will it make a difference in financing forest development?

There is a high level of interest in reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus (REDD+) carbon (C) financing as a way to accelerate forest conservation and development. However, there is very limited information on the potential costs and benefits of REDD+ in developing countries like the Philippines. In this paper, we estimated the range of likely financial benefits of REDD+ implementation in the country under various forest degradation and mitigation scenarios. Our findings show that reducing the rate of forest degradation by a modest 5 to 15 % annually while increasing the doubling the rate of reforestation to 1.5 % annually could reduce C emissions by up to about 60 million t C by 2030. These are equivalent to US$ 97 to 417 million of mean C credits annually at US$ 5 per ton C. These figures are much higher than the total budget of the government and official development assistance for forestry activities in the country which amounted to US$ 46 million in 2005 and US$ 12 million in 2006, respectively. We conclude that REDD+ C credits could be a significant source of financing for forestry projects in developing countries like the Philippines.