Origins and fundamental concepts of the competing-risks problem

The history of problems dealing with competing risks is briefly outlined, beginning with Daniel Bernoulli's 1760 “Mémoir” on mortality due to smallpox and proceeding through the development of actuarial techniques and methods used in clinical research, reliability theory, population dynamics, and other areas of application. A probabilistic formulation of the theory of competing risks is then presented which appears applicable to all these areas. Within the framework of this theory, some fundamental problems are stated and discussed, such as questions of identifiability, choices of estimation procedures, or techniques for testing hypotheses.     

Work-related commitment and job performance: it's also the nature of the performance that counts

This study tested the proposition that relationships among the various types of work-related commitment and job performance are affected by both the form of commitment and the facet of performance under consideration. Results provided some support for this view. As hypothesized, job involvement was related only to performance tied to intrinsically rewarding elements of work, and career commitment was positively related to overall performance effectiveness. Unexpectedly, however, organizational commitment (both affective and continuance) was unrelated to job performance. The discussion is centered on practical implications of these findings and on directions for future research. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975–2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability

Variations and trends in the rain regime of Israel are analyzed for 1975–2010, when persistent global warming has been observed. Negative trend is observed over the majority of Israel, statistically significant only in the super-arid region. The decrease is significant over the majority of Israel only in the spring, reflecting a shortening of the rainy season, >3 days/decade. The dry spells are becoming longer, significantly in most of the stations. The factors affecting these variations, synoptic systems, large-scale oscillations and global temperature, were studied for extended period, 1953–2010. A simple multiple stepwise regression model applied for the inter-annual rainfall variations indicates that the occurrence of Cyprus lows is the dominant factor and the Mediterranean oscillation index, MOI2, is also a significant factor. In order to reduce the inter-annual noise and reveal inter-decadal variations, the time-series of the rainfall and its potential predictors were smoothed by 11-year window, showing an increase toward the 1990s, followed by a decrease, at a higher rate, onward. Correspondingly, the aridity lines propagated southward till the mid-1990s and then withdrew back, at a larger rate. The large-scale oscillations and the global temperature explain 83 % of the variance on the inter-decadal time-scale, half of it explained by the global temperature alone. The findings of this study support the expected poleward expansion of the Hadley cell due to global warming.     

Environmental Co-governance,Legitimacy, and the Quest for Compliance: When and Why Is Stakeholder Participation Desirable?

Deliberative forms of stakeholder participation have been widely embraced as a key measure for addressing legitimacy deficits and non-compliance in environmental governance. However, the great significance of such collaborative structures for state-stakeholder interaction is much too often accepted uncritically as an established truth in the environmental policy discourse. Building on examples from the literature on fisheries co-governance, this article constructs a conceptual and normative framework for interpreting and assessing such views about co-governance, legitimacy and compliance. Analysing central claims in this discourse in relation to different concepts and standards of legitimacy helps us identify and distinguish many powerful reasons to welcome co-governance. However, the article defends the need to do so cautiously and reflectively. It is conceptually misleading to suggest that more intense forms of co-governance will generally improve the overall level of social legitimacy and, thereby, compliance rates among stakeholders. Furthermore, it is argued that the democratic value of co-governance is not fundamental. The democratic desirability of such arrangements should be primarily assessed on instrumental-pragmatic grounds, focusing on their capacity to serve the wider ideals of equal citizenship and public reason.     

Anniston community health survey: Follow-up and dioxin analyses (ACHS-II)—methods

High serum concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been reported previously among residents of Anniston, Alabama, where a PCB production facility was located in the past. As the second of two cross-sectional studies of these Anniston residents, the Anniston Community Health Survey: Follow-Up and Dioxin Analyses (ACHS-II) will yield repeated measurements to be used to evaluate changes over time in ortho-PCB concentrations and selected health indicators in study participants. Dioxins, non-ortho PCBs, other chemicals, heavy metals, and a variety of additional clinical tests not previously measured in the original ACHS cohort will be examined in ACHS-II. The follow-up study also incorporates a questionnaire with extended sections on diet and occupational history for a more comprehensive assessment of possible exposure sources. Data collection for ACHS-II from 359 eligible participants took place in 2014, 7 to 9 years after ACHS.