Geoadditive regression modeling of stream biological condition

Indices of biotic integrity have become an established tool to quantify the condition of small non-tidal streams and their watersheds. To investigate the effects of watershed characteristics on stream biological condition, we present a new technique for regressing IBIs on watershed-specific explanatory variables. Since IBIs are typically evaluated on an ordinal scale, our method is based on the proportional odds model for ordinal outcomes. To avoid overfitting, we do not use classical maximum likelihood estimation but a component-wise functional gradient boosting approach. Because component-wise gradient boosting has an intrinsic mechanism for variable selection and model choice, determinants of biotic integrity can be identified. In addition, the method offers a relatively simple way to account for spatial correlation in ecological data. An analysis of the Maryland Biological Streams Survey shows that nonlinear effects of predictor variables on stream condition can be quantified while, in addition, accurate predictions of biological condition at unsurveyed locations are obtained.     

Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.     

A new model for the CBL growth based on the turbulent kinetic energy equation

Starting from the evolution equation for the turbulent energy density spectrum (EDS), we develop a new model for the growth of the Convective boundary layer (CBL). We apply dimensional analysis to parameterize the unknown inertial transport and convective source term in the dynamic equation for the three-dimensional (3-D) spectrum and solve the 3-D EDS equation. The one-dimensional vertical spectrum is derived from the 3-D spectrum, employing a weight function. This allows us to select the magnitude of the vertical spectral component for the construction of the growing 3-D EDS. Furthermore, we employ the vertical component of the energy spectrum to calculate the eddy diffusivity (required in dispersion models). Currently there are no available experimental data to directly verify our EDS model.     

波罗的海生物地理特性的消失:自然过程和人为过程的相互作用

波罗的海的生物地理特性是自上一次冰河期起逐步形成的.波罗的海这种海水,半咸水和淡水物种以及前几个时期的残余物种的特征的混合正在受到环境变化的威胁.本文重点讲述外来物种、富营养化和深海海盆中暂时性缺氧,以及波罗的海在不同的时空内的生物地理统一性等问题.当今的航运活动打破了地理障碍,半成水体的生物区系相互联系在一起,导致世界范围内水生动植物物种的交换和进一步的均一化.     

Distribution of mercury in the atmosphere over Idrija, Slovenia

Idrija mine, the second largest mercury mine in the world, was in use since 1490. More than 107 000 tons of Hg were produced in its five centuries of history until 1990 when production was reduced to a few hundred kilos per year. The average recovery rate of mercury has been estimated to 73%; much of the remaining 27% was dissipated into the environment. In spite of present minimal levels of production, and only a few days of smelter operation per year, a real time survey with a mercury Zeeman analyser in a car showed relatively high mercury concentrations in the air. Amounts of 300--4000 ng Hg ^m-3 have been found around both the major sources of mercury vapour, the smelter and mine ventilation shaft -- while the amounts at the Old Place, at the City Museum, and near the Nikova-Idrijca confluence are of the order of 50 ng m^-3. Polluted air will be transported from those sources to a degree which depends on the weather conditions, mainly the direction and intensity of the wind. The high mercury contents in the air are not only due to anthropogenic sources (smelter and the ventilation shaft, dumps and smelter slag used in construction), but may also partly be natural as in the Pront area, where the outcropping bedrock contains native mercury.     

Dominance of the odometer over serial landmark learning in honeybee navigation

Honeybees use their visual flow field to measure flight distance. It has been suggested that the experience of serial landmarks encountered on the flight toward a feeding place contributes to distance estimation. Here, we address this question by tracing the flight paths of individual bees with a harmonic radar system. Bees were trained along an array of three landmarks (tents), and the distance between these landmarks was either increased or decreased under two test conditions. We find that absolute distance estimation dominates the search for the feeding place, but serial position effects are also found. In the latter case, bees search only or additionally at locations determined by serial experience of the landmarks.