Appendix: IPCC Emissions Scenarios Database

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -     

Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios

This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources and other scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models and systems-engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the range for projected population increase in the world, across the scenarios in the database, is the smallest of all main driving forces (about a factor of 3 in 2100). The range of economic growth, measured by the gross world product, and the range of primary energy consumption vary by a factor of 10 in 2100. Carbon intensity of energy, an indicator of the degree of technological change, varies by nearly two orders of magnitude in the year 2100. In addition, this paper presents the first attempt to analyze the relationships among the main scenario driving forces. Subsequent papers in this special issue give further analyses of the relationships among the main scenario driving forces and their other relevant characteristics.     

Detection and average content levels of carcinogenic and mutagenic compounds from the particulates on diesel and gasoline engine mufflers

Carcinogenic and mutagenic compounds, which were extracted from the particulates that adhered to inner surfaces of diesel and gasoline engine mufflers, were quantified by the series method of Soxhlet extraction, liquid-liquid partition, thin-layer chromatography, and spectrofluorometry. Mutagenic activity of their neutral and acidic fractions was tested in the improved Ames assay by the preincubation method with Salmonella typhimurium TA98 in the presence and absence of metabolic activation system (S-9 mix). The average content levels (μg/g tar) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from gasoline engine cars were greater than those from diesel engine vehicles. However, the levels of nitro derivatives of PAHs and polycyclic quinones from the diesel engines were greater than from the gasoline engines. Mutagenic activity of the diesel acidic fraction was the highest among the diesel and gasoline fractions, and was significantly higher in the absence of the S-9 mix. Furthermore, the relative value (R_{c = 0}) of infrared absorption of carbonyl stretching vibration to that of methylene asymmetric stretching vibration of the diesel acidic fraction was the highest among the diesel and gasoline fractions. These results strongly suggest that highly direct-acting mutagens in the acidic fraction are at higher levels in diesel emission particulates than those from gasoline, and that these mutagens are carboxylic acid, aldehyde, and alcohol derivatives of PAHs and NPAHs.