An experimental investigation of explanations for inconsistencies in responses to second offers in double referenda

This paper demonstrates the potential for induced preference experiments to test previously unverified explanations of observed behavior in contingent valuation surveys. The NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation called for experimental evidence on potential biases in the double referendum format. We test Carson, Groves, and Machina's (Incentives and informational properties of preference questions, Plenary address to the European Association of Resource and Environmental Economists, Oslo, Norway, June 1999) simple cost uncertainty and weighted averaging explanations of inconsistent responses to follow-up offers in such double referenda against a baseline of certainty and truthful preference revelation. The results find evidence to support the Weighted Average hypothesis. Results regarding the cost uncertainty hypothesis are more ambiguous and merit further investigation.     

Acute toxic hazard evaluations of glyphosate herbicide on terrestrial vertebrates of the oregon coast range

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: The degree to which dose responses of model organisms (lab rodents) can adequately predict dose responses of free-ranging wild mammals or amphibians is unknown, and the relative sensitivity of such species to body loading of a toxicant such as glyphosate is seldom reported. For relative effects of dosage, we compare sensitivity of nine wild vertebrate species to effects of high doses of glyphosate in Swiss-Webster laboratory mice both by gavage and by intraperitoneal injection. We also evaluate sublethal effects of herbicide exposure on behavior and reproductive success of one mammal and one amphibian species. METHODS: Comparisons of acute toxicity of glyphosate were made with intraperitoneal dosings of technical glyphosate isopropylamine salt to nine species of terrestrial vertebrates (five amphibians, four mammals) and compared with responses in Swiss-Webster laboratory mice. Animals collected from sites that had no recent herbicide application were allowed 7-14 days to equilibrate in captivity before treatment. RESULTS: Median lethal dose ranged from 800 to 1,340 mg kg(-1) in mammals, and 1,170 to >2,000 mg kg(-1) in amphibians, with Oregon vole being the most sensitive. White lab mice were in the middle of the mammalian range. Tailed frog, at >2,000 mg kg(-1) was the least sensitive. Calibration of IP sensitivity to oral administration by gavage indicated that roughly four times as much glyphosate must be administered to obtain a comparable estimate of lethality. Administration by gavage in highly concentrated solutions tended to cause physical injury, hence may prove less useful as a relative indicator of toxicity. When sublethal dosages were given to roughskin newts or chipmunks, mobility and use of cover appeared largely unaffected. DISCUSSION: Direct toxic effects of spraying glyphosate under normal forest management seem unlikely for the nine species examined. Nor could we detect significant indirect effects of exposure on behavior and use of cover features in two species. There may be effects on other aspects of the field biology of these animals, such as reproductive rates, which we did not investigate. Recent field data indicate that changes in habitat quality following herbicide application can result in high reproductive activity in species associated with the grasses and forbs that proliferate following field applications. CONCLUSIONS: When compared to field data on body burdens of wild mammals exposed after aerial application of glyphosate at maximum rates in forests, there seems to be a large margin of safety between dosages encountered and those causing either death or limitation of movement, foraging or shelter. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Margins of safety for small mammals and amphibians appear to be large under any probable exposure scenarios, however our results indicate high variability in responses among species. Uncertainty introduced into field studies from unknown sources of mortality (e.g, likely predation) must be considered when interpreting our results.     

Direct capture of carbon dioxide from air via lime-based sorbents

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Direct air capture (DAC) is a developing technology for removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere or from low-CO2-containing...     

Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

The influence of metallurgy on the formation of welding aerosols

Recent research has indicated that insoluble ultrafine aerosols (ie., particles whose physical diameters are less than 100 nm) may cause adverse health effects due to their small size, and that toxicological response may be more appropriately represented by particle number or particle surface area. Unfortunately, current exposure criteria and the associated air-sampling techniques are primarily mass-based. Welding processes are high-temperature operations that generate substantial number concentrations of ultrafine aerosols. Welding aerosols are formed primarily through the nucleation of metal vapors followed by competing growth mechanisms such as coagulation and condensation. Experimental results and mathematical tools are presented to illustrate how welding metallurgy influences the chemical aspects and dynamic processes that initiate and evolve the resultant aerosol. This research suggests that a fundamental understanding of metallurgy and aerosol physics can be exploited to suppress the formation of undesirable chemical species as well as the amount of aerosol generated during a welding process.     

Total versus inhalable sampler comparison study for the determination of asphalt fume exposures within the road paving industry

Exposure to asphalt fumes has a threshold limit value (TLV of 0.5 mg m(-3) (benzene extractable inhalable particulate) as recommended by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). This reflects a recent change (2000) whereby two variables are different from the previous recommendation. First is a 10-fold reduction in quantity from 5 mg m(-3) to 0.5 mg m(-3). Secondly, the new TLV specifies the "inhalable" fraction as compared to what is presumed to be total particulate. To assess the impact of these changes, this study compares the differences between measurements of paving asphalt fume exposure in the field using an "inhalable" instrument versus the historically used 'total' sampler. Particle size is also examined to assist in the understanding of the aerodynamic collection differences as related to asphalt fumes and confounders. Results show that when exposures are limited to asphalt fumes, a 1:1 relationship exists between samplers, showing no statistically significant differences in benzene soluble matter (BSM). This means that for the asphalt fume ACGIH TLV, the 'total' 37-mm sampler is an equivalent method to the "inhalable" method, referred to as IOM (Institute of Occupational Medicine), and should be acceptable for use against the TLV. However, the study found that when confounders (dust or old asphalt millings) are present in the workplace, there can be significant differences between the two samplers' reported exposure. The ratio of IOM/Total was 1.37 for milling asphalt sites, 1.41 for asphalt paving over granular base, and 1.02 for asphalt over asphalt pavements.     

Patients' attitudes following chorionic villus sampling

The attitudes of 190 patients who had undergone chorionic villus sampling (CVS) were assessed by means of a questionnaire. One hundred and fifty-two patients replied of whom 68 (45 per cent) were referred because of increased maternal age and in the other 84 cases the indications included previous chromosomal abnormalities, fetal sexing, DNA analysis, and biochemical analysis. One hundred and twenty-two patients had a transcervical procedure, 24 had a transabdominal, and six patients required both procedures. One hundred and forty-one patients (93 per cent) reported CVS to be a satisfactory procedure, and the same percentage thought earlier diagnosis was beneficial. Thirty-nine patients (81 per cent) reported a better experience with CVS than with a previous amniocentesis. A majority of patients (93 per cent) wished a CVS in a future pregnancy and 137 patients (97 per cent) would accept a risk of miscarriage from the procedure of twice that quoted for amniocentesis (1 per cent).     

Rapid prenatal diagnosis of Patau's syndrome in a fetus with an abdominal wall defect by 72 hour culture of cells from amniotic fluid

A woman in the 32nd week of pregnancy was referred for investigation because of fetal abnormalities, including an abdominal wall defect, detected by ultrasonography. In view of the increased risk of chromosome abnormality, amniocentesis was performed to enable informed decisions about the management of the pregnancy and delivery to be taken. Cells from the liquor were inoculated into standard lymphocyte culture medium and incubated for 72 h. Slides with a high mitotic index and good quality metaphases, comparable to those from a blood culture, were obtained after harvesting. Cytogenetic analysis showed the karyotype to be 46,XY,—14,+t(13ql4q), which is consistent with Patau's syndrome. This technique appears to be an option for rapid karyotyping in cases of abdominal wall defect, where a chromosomal abnormality is suspected.