The need for a systems theory approach to road safety

In other hazardous complex socio-technical systems in society, e.g. nuclear power and aviation, systems-theoretical assumptions are considered a promising way to better understand and manage safety. In this paper, two fundamental approaches to road safety were assessed in the light of a systems theory approach. One approach, is based on a premise where individual road-users are solely responsible when crashes occur. In that case countermeasures are aimed at altering the behavior of the road-user in order to adapt him/her to the road transport system. The other approach, the so-called zero-tolerance position, or Vision Zero approach, to road safety is built around two axioms; the system must be adapted to the psychological and physical conditions and limitations of the human being and the responsibility for road safety must be shared between the road-users and the designers and professional operators of the system. It was found that the most important determinants of systems theory are basically not present in the road-user approach. However, even if the Vision Zero approach clearly takes step towards systems theory, it does leave room for articulating even more features of systems theory.     

Three-dimensional patterns of moisture, water repellency, bromide and pH in a sandy soil

Soil water repellency might lead to preferential flow of water and solutes through the unsaturated zone of soils. To study this process in a water repellent sandy field soil, a bromide tracer had been applied on a 2.2 m long and 0.4 m wide plot. The bromide application rate was 8 g/m², and the plot was sampled using 100 cm³ steel cylinders after 52 mm of rainfall in 12 days. A total of seven layers were sampled to a depth of 74 cm. Each layer was sampled at 240 locations in a 40 by 6 grid. All samples were used for the determination of soil water content, degree of actual and potential water repellency, bromide concentration and pH. The spatial distribution of these properties was visualized three-dimensionally and compared. The degree of water repellency, bromide concentration, and pH distribution bore close resemblance to the fingered flow induced soil water content distribution. The degree of potential water repellency was relatively low in places with such fingers. Actual water repellency occurred between the fingers at the dry spots. Bromide was not found, or only in very low concentrations, in such places. Bromide depth profiles clearly indicated the occurrence of diverging flow in the wetter subsoil. Most likely, manuring activities during the last decades resulted in relatively high pH values in the topsoil, and in the subsoil along the recurring fingered flow pathways.     

Sex-specific energy requirements in nestlings of an extremely sexually size dimorphic bird, the European sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus)

Allocation of parental investment is predicted to be equal at the population level between both sexes of offspring, and should lead to sex ratio biases in species that exhibit a sex-difference in parental care. Sex-differences in parental care are rarely quantified. We measured daily energy expenditure in free-living nestlings of the extremely sexually size dimorphic European sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus), using the doubly labelled water method. These data were combined with measured growth characteristics to estimate daily and total metabolised energy intake of male and female young during the nestling stage. Females reached an asymptotic body mass 1.6 times higher than males. This resulted in a total metabolised energy an estimated 1.4 times higher for the nestling stage. Furthermore, we observed a decline in daily metabolised energy with an increase in brood size, which was significantly stronger for females than for males. These results are discussed in the context of Fishers equal allocation theory. Empirical evidence of a sex ratio bias at the end of parental care, with an overall excess of males, is lacking in this species. Consequently, our data do not support the idea of equal allocation between the sexes. The observed sex difference in daily metabolised energy in response to brood size may give scope for sex ratio bias at the level of the individual brood.     

Bringing together raptor collections in Europe for contaminant research and monitoring in relation to chemicals regulations

Raptors are good sentinels of environmental contamination and there is good capability for raptor biomonitoring in Europe. Raptor biomonitoring can benefit from natural history museums (NHMs), environmental specimen banks (ESBs) and other collections (e.g. specialist raptor specimen collections). Europe’s NHMs, ESBs and other collections hold large numbers of raptor specimens and samples, covering long periods of time. These collections are potentially a valuable resource for contaminant studies over time and space. There are strong needs to monitor contaminants in the environment to support EU and national chemical management. However, data on raptor specimens in NHMs, ESBs and other collections are dispersed, few are digitised, and they are thus not easy to access. Specimen coverage is patchy in terms of species, space and time. Contaminant research with raptors would be facilitated by creating a framework to link relevant collections, digitising all collections, developing a searchable meta-database covering all existing collections, making them more visible and accessible for contaminant research. This would also help identify gaps in coverage and stimulate specimen collection to fill gaps in support of prioritised contaminant monitoring. Collections can further support raptor biomonitoring by making samples available for analysis on request.     

Household waste disposal in Mekelle city, Northern Ethiopia

In many cities of developing countries, such as Mekelle (Ethiopia), waste management is poor and solid wastes are dumped along roadsides and into open areas, endangering health and attracting vermin. The effects of demographic factors, economic and social status, waste and environmental attributes on household solid waste disposal are investigated using data from household survey. Household level data are then analyzed using multinomial logit estimation to determine the factors that affect household waste disposal decision making. Results show that demographic features such as age, education and household size have an insignificant impact over the choice of alternative waste disposal means, whereas the supply of waste facilities significantly affects waste disposal choice. Inadequate supply of waste containers and longer distance to these containers increase the probability of waste dumping in open areas and roadsides relative to the use of communal containers. Higher household income decreases the probability of using open areas and roadsides as waste destinations relative to communal containers. Measures to make the process of waste disposal less costly and ensuring well functioning institutional waste management would improve proper waste disposal.     

NitroGenius:氮决策支持系统--荷兰氮污染问题最佳解决方案的一个游戏模拟实验

利用计算机模拟的方法,我们为第二届国际氮会议研制开发了一个游戏形式的氮决策支持系统.研制这一系统的目的是:①使科学工作者和决策者们都能认识到荷兰氮污染问题的复杂性,因为荷兰是一个农业、工业和运输业活动密集的区域;②探索以最低的社会经济代价解决氮污染的最佳方案.NitroGenius由有关时空范围内的氮流动模型组成,其中包括氨和氮氧化合物的释放及其对地表水和地下水的污染.NitroGenius中还包括了一个经济模型,它描述了各个重要经济部门之间的关系,以及不同氮排放控制措施对国民生产总值(GDP)、失业率、能源消耗和环境的影响.在第二次国际氮会议期间,大约有50个研究组对NitroGenius进行了测试,结果表明,如果认真进行计划并选择适当的治理措施,就能够以适当的代价解决荷兰的氮污染问题.     

Monitoring and modelling of biosphere/atmosphere exchange of gases and aerosols in Europe

Monitoring and modelling of deposition of air pollutants is essential to develop and evaluate policies to abate the effects related to air pollution and to determine the losses of pollutants from the atmosphere. Techniques for monitoring wet deposition fluxes are widely applied. A recent intercomparison experiment, however, showed that the uncertainty in wet deposition is relatively high, up to 40%, apart from the fact that most samplers are biased because of a dry deposition contribution. Wet deposition amounts to about 80% of the total deposition in Europe with a range of 10-90% and uncertainty should therefore be decreased. During recent years the monitoring of dry deposition has become possible. Three sites have been operational for 5 years. The data are useful for model development, but also for model evaluation and monitoring of progress in policy. Data show a decline in SO(2) dry deposition, whereas nitrogen deposition remained constant. Furthermore, surface affinities for pollutants changed leading to changes in deposition. Deposition models have been further developed and tested with dry deposition measurements and total deposition measurements on forests as derived from throughfall data. The comparison is reasonable given the measurement uncertainties. Progress in ozone surface exchange modelling and monitoring shows that stomatal uptake can be quantified with reasonable accuracy, but external surface uptake yields highest uncertainty.     

Examining the asymptote in safety progress: a literature review

Many industries are confronted by plateauing safety performance as measured by the absence of negative events – particularly lower-consequence incidents or injuries. At the same time, these industries are sometimes surprised by large fatal accidents that seem to have no connection with their understanding of the risks they faced; or with how they were measuring safety. This article reviews the safety literature to examine how both these surprises and the asymptote are linked to the very structures and practices organizations have in place to manage safety. The article finds that safety practices associated with compliance, control and quantification could be partly responsible. These can create a sense of invulnerability through safety performance close to zero; organizational resources can get deflected into unproductive or counterproductive initiatives; obsolete practices for keeping human performance within a pre-specified bandwidth are sustained; and accountability relationships can encourage suppression of the ‘bad news’ necessary to learn and improve.