A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

Seasonal variations in nickel and vanadium in Mont Blanc snow and ice dated from the 1960s and 1990s

Ni and V have been determined in snow and ice collected at a high altitude location (Col du D?me) near the summit of Mont Blanc on the French-Italian border; dated from the 1960s and 1990s. Ni and V were simultaneously determined by inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry. Measured concentrations range from 6 to 700 pg g(-1) and 4 to 1,100 pg g(-1) for Ni and V, respectively. The results show pronounced seasonal variations in the concentrations of both metals, with high concentration values in summer layers and much lower values for winter layers. These seasonal variations are linked especially with the existence of inversion layers during winter months. Ni and V concentrations in excess of the contributions from rock and soil dust (Ni(excess), V(excess)) appear to be mainly associated with anthropogenic inputs, with pronounced seasonal variations. Large variations in the V(excess)/Ni(excess) ratio are observed, with a higher ratio in summer than in winter. This shows differences in anthropogenic inputs at Col du D?me during the different parts of the year. The above ratio was compared with the corresponding ratios for oil combustion from stationary sources and the exhaust from gasoline and diesel engines. It appears that Ni and V concentrations at Col du D?me are probably the result of changing combinations of contributions from oil combustion for power generation, industrial and residential uses, on one side, and automobile and truck traffic, on the other side, with possibly a significant contribution from Ni smelters in Russia during winter months.     

新农药环境化学行为研究(V)-—三氟羧草醚(Acifluorfen)在土壤和水环境中的滞留、转化

从如下几方面研究了三氟羧草醚在土壤－水环境中的化学行为：一是土壤对该药的吸附，结果表明，吸附强度与土壤理化特性密切相关，Ｆｒｅｕｎｄｌｉｃｈ常数ｋｆ＝０．９４Ｗｏｍ＋０．６５Ｗｃｌａｙ－９．５９ｐＨ（ｒ＾２＝０．９４）；二是吸附机理研究，发现三氟羧草醚能与碱金属以外的许多金属离子形成配合物，并证实了与ＣＵ＾２＋形成的双核桥联合物的可能性；三是实验指出它在水中避光有一定的稳定性，不易水解；四是它在〈     

Ultrasonography in pregnancy and fetal abnormalities: Screening or diagnostic test? IPIMC 1986–1990 register data

The aim of the present study was to assess the sensitivity of ultrasound diagnosis used as a screening test in detecting major congenital anomalies in the prenatal period in a large nation-based multicentre setting. Data from the IPIMC register were collected in the period 1986–1990. One hundred and thirty-five hospitals, located in 17 out of the 20 regions in Italy, participated in the register. Study cases were 3479 infants with major congenital anomalies diagnosed at birth or in the first week of life. Subjects with chromosomal anomalies or multiple defects were excluded. The sensitivity of ultrasound prenatal diagnosis was 49.5 per cent for central nervous system anomalies, 3.8 per cent for congenital heart diseases, 17.1 per cent for gastrointestinal tract defects, 46.6 per cent for abdominal wall defects, 74.8 per cent for urinary tract anomalies, and 22.9 per cent for skeletal abnormalities. The detection rate for diaphragmatic hernia was 24.2 per cent. Overall, only 18 per cent of the defects diagnosed in utero were detected before 24 weeks' gestation. The sensitivity of prenatal diagnosis was 30.1 and 19.0 per cent in the northern, central, and southern regions, respectively. In light of its low sensitivity, ultrasonography as a screening test in the general population should be abandoned, although some improvement in its performance should be expected following adequate training of the ultrasound staff and the use of good technical equipment.     

Erythroid-specific antibodies enhance detection of fetal nucleated erythrocytes in maternal blood

Fetal nucleated erythrocytes (NRBC) in maternal blood are a non-invasive source of fetal DNA for prenatal genetic screening. We compared the effectiveness of three monoclonal antibodies for the separation of fetal cells from maternal blood by flow sorting. Mononuclear blood cells from 49 healthy pregnant women were incubated with antibody to CD 71, CD 36, and/or glycophorin A (GPA), employed singly or in combination with each other. These monoclonal antibodies recognize surface antigens on haematopoietic precursor cells. Successful isolation of fetal cells was defined as detection of Y chromosomal sequences in maternal blood from women carrying male fetuses, with absence of Y sequences when female fetuses were carried. Thus, gender prediction accuracy was used as a measure of fetal cell separation. Using anti-CD 71 to isolate fetal cells, gender prediction was 57 per cent correct; with anti-CD 36, it was 88 per cent correct. Anti-GPA, an erythrocyte-specific antigen, used alone or in combination with anti-CD 71 or 36, improved gender prediction to 100 per cent. We conclude that antibody to GPA improves the retrieval of fetal NRBC from maternal blood, permitting genetic analysis by the polymerase chain reaction.     

Age-related decline in metabolic competence of small and medium-sized synaptic mitochondria

A computer-assisted morphometric investigation of cytochrome oxidase (COX) activity, selectively evidenced by preferential diaminobenzidine cytochemistry, has been carried out on synaptic mitochondria in the cerebellar cortex of adult and old rats. The ratio (R) of the area of the cytochemical precipitate (CPA) to the overall area of each mitochondrion (MA) was calculated. R refers to the fraction of the inner mitochondrial membrane actively involved in cellular respiration, thus its quantitative estimation constitutes a reliable index of the mitochondrial metabolic competence (MMC). In adult rats a significant negative correlation between MA and R values was found, while in old animals there was just a positive trend. Paired-quartile comparisons of R values showed a significant age-related decrease in small and medium-sized mitochondria, whereas the lowest and not significant age-related reduction was found in oversized organelles. A paired decrease in number and increase in size is reported to be a general trend for mitochondria during aging, but oversized organelles, according to their low R value, constitute a scanty, though functional, compensating reaction. Thus, the present findings support the argument that the currently reported age-related cellular metabolic decay appears to rely both on the decline in MMC of the small and medium-sized mitochondria, and on their specific reduction in number. This novel result is of biological relevance since it is largely the small and medium-sized mitochondria that are required for the provision of adequate amounts of ATP for actual cellular performance, while the significantly enlarged organelles are thought to represent an intermediate ultrastructural feature in mitochondrial genesis and/or remodelling.     

Flow sorting of fetal erythroblasts using intracytoplasmic anti-fetal haemoglobin: Preliminary observations on maternal samples

Monoclonal antibody to fetal haemoglobin (a₂γy₂) has been proposed as a fetal-specific reagent. We developed an intracellular staining protocol that combines fluorescein isothiocyanate or phycoerythrin conjugated anti-γ with the DNA binding dye Hoechst 33342 to identify and flow sort fetal erythroblasts from maternal blood. Our preliminary observations on anti-γ-positive cells sorted from four different pregnant women are described here, using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with chromosome-specific probes to identify fetal cells. Our data demonstrate that far fewer candidate fetal cells are sorted with this protocol than by current cell surface staining methods that employ the monoclonal antibody CD71. This results in increased fetal cell sorting purities. With this protocol, standard FISH techniques require modification due to the rigorous fixation with 4 per cent paraformaldehyde. Our initial data indicate the promise of this approach.     

Detection of fetal HLA-DQα sequences in maternal blood: A gender-independent technique of fetal cell identification

The objective of this study was to detect fetal HLA-DQα gene sequences in maternal blood. HLA-DQα genotypes of 70 pregnant women and their partners were determined for type A1. We specifically sought couples where the father, but not the mother, had genotype A1. In 12 women, maternal blood samples were flow-sorted. Candidate fetal cells were isolated and amplified by using PCR primers specific for a paternal HLA-DQα A1 allele. Fetal HLA-DQα A1 genotype was predicted from sorted cells; amniocytes or cheek swabs were used for confirmation. Six of twelve sorted samples had amplification products indicating the presence of the HLA-DQα A1 allele; 6/12 did not. Prediction of the fetal genotype was 100 per cent correct, as determined by subsequent amplification of amniocytes or cheek swabs. We conclude that paternally inherited uniquely fetal HLA-DQα gene sequences can be identified in maternal blood. This system permits the identification of fetal cells independent of fetal gender, and has the potential for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of paternally inherited conditions.     

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) in pregnant diabetic patients

The efficacy of the insulin infusion pump (CSII) in pregnancy was examined in 12 diabetic patients and compared with intermittent insulin therapy (IIT). In patients poorly controlled on IIT constant and rapid equilibrium was achieved with CSII (mean of glucose levels: CSII versus IIT=84 versus 137 mg/dl; S.D. = 36 versus 63 mg/dl; mean amplitude of glycemic excursion (MAGE)=65 versus 112 mg/dl. In patients well controlled on IIT, CSII led to a reduction in the variation of glucose excursions (S.D.= 29 versus 36 mg/dl; MAGE=48 versus 76 mg/dl). CSII generally produced a reduction of 20–37 per cent of daily insulin dose (in three cases there was an increase of dose with the achievement of glycemic control). Furthermore in CSII treated-patients amniotic glucose, insulin and C-peptide concentrations werefound tobeinthenormalrange(22.1±10.1 mg/dl; 5.2±2.7μ/ml; 1.25±0.71 ng/ml, respectively). All infants were horn at or near-term, had no macrosomia or neonatal problems. It is concluded that CSII is a highly efficient way to achieve normal glucose levels in pregnancy, not only in type I, hut also in type II or gestational diabetes.     

Cardiovascular effects of arsenic: clinical and epidemiological findings

Several population studies relate exposure to high levels of arsenic with an increased incidence of ischemic heart disease and cardiovascular mortality. An association has been shown between exposure to high levels of arsenic and cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes mellitus, and vascular damage such as subclinical carotid atherosclerosis. The mechanisms underlying these phenomena are currently being studied and appear to indicate an alteration of vascular function. However, the effects of low levels of exposure to arsenic and their potential detrimental cardiovascular effect are less explored. The article provides an overview of the pathophysiologic mechanisms linking low-level arsenic exposure to the occurrence of cardiovascular disease and its complications, and some potential preventive strategies to implement.