Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTI_SD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTI_SD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTI_SD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.     

Catalyzing sustainable fisheries management through behavior change interventions

Small-scale fisheries are an important livelihood and primary protein source for coastal communities in many of the poorest regions in the world, yet many are overfished and thus require effective and scalable management solutions. Positive ecological and socioeconomic responses to management typically lag behind immediate costs borne by fishers from fishing pressure reductions necessary for fisheries recovery. These short-term costs challenge the long-term success of these interventions. However, social marketing may increase perceptions of management benefits before ecological and socioeconomic benefits are fully realized, driving new social norms and ultimately long-term sustainable behavior change. By conducting underwater visual surveys to quantify ecological conditions and by conducting household surveys with community members to quantify their perceptions of management support and socioeconomic conditions, we assessed the impact of a standardized small-scale fisheries management intervention that was implemented across 41 sites in Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The intervention combines TURF reserves (community-based territorial use rights for fishing coupled with no-take marine reserves) with locally tailored social-marketing behavior change campaigns. Leveraging data across 22 indicators and 4 survey types, along with data from 3 control sites, we found that ecological and socioeconomic impacts varied and that communities supported the intervention and were already changing their fishing practices. These results suggest that communities were developing new social norms and fishing more sustainably before long-term ecological and socioeconomic benefits of fisheries management materialized.     

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment and Validation in the Framework of Municipal Planning in Portugal: The Case of Loures Municipality

The legislation that demands the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Portugal at the municipal level is the National Ecological Reserve (NER). A methodology for the evaluation of landslide susceptibility to be used in municipal planning is applied in Loures Municipality (169.3?km2) located north of Lisbon (Portugal). A landslide inventory was made for the whole area interpreting orthophoto maps and aerial photographs and using standard geomorphologic techniques in field work. It consists of 686 polygons, each polygon representing a rotational, a deep translational or a shallow translational slide, and is integrated into a GIS database. Landslide susceptibility is evaluated using algorithms based on statistical/probabilistic analysis (Information Value Method) over unique-condition terrain units in a raster basis. Three susceptibility models are elaborated independently according to the type of slide (rotational, deep translational, shallow translational). The landslide susceptibility maps are prepared by sorting all pixels according to the pixel susceptibility value in descending order. The robustness and accuracy of the landslide susceptibility models are evaluated by prediction-rate curves, which are used for the quantitative interpretation of the landslide susceptibility maps. Unstable slopes that have to be included into the National Ecological Reserve are extracted from the three susceptibility maps following the general rules to draw the NER that state that the area to be included in the NER should guarantee the inclusion of at least 70?% of the landslides identified in the landslide inventory. The obtained results allow us to conclude that 70?% of the future landslides should occur in these areas, classified as most susceptible to landslides corresponding to 20.3?% of the total area of Municipality. Thus, the consideration of these 20.3?% as regards prevention and protection of landslide risk could potentially reduce damage resulting from 70?% of future landslides in the Loures Municipality.     

Bayesian spatial prediction

This paper presents a complete Bayesian methodology for analyzing spatial data, one which employs proper priors and features diagnostic methods in the Bayesian spatial setting. The spatial covariance structure is modeled using a rich class of covariance functions for Gaussian random fields. A general class of priors for trend, scale, and structural covariance parameters is considered. In particular, we obtain analytic results that allow easy computation of the predictive distribution for an arbitrary prior on the parameters of the covariance function using importance sampling. The computations, as well as model diagnostics and sensitivity analysis, are illustrated with a set of precipitation data.     

Protected area characteristics that help waterbirds respond to climate warming

Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation-relevant characteristics to these responses is not well understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites’ conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late-designated N2K sites. Sites funded under the LIFE program had lower climate-driven community changes than sites that did not received LIFE funding. Our findings imply that efficient conservation policy that helps waterbird communities respond to climate warming is associated with sites specifically managed for waterbirds.