A Decision Framework for the Adaptive Management of an Exploited Species with Implications for Marine Reserves

Abstract:  Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate ( λ ) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate λ based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the λ declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive λ value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of λ increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.     

Viability Analysis of Reef Fish Populations Based on Limited Demographic Information

Abstract:  Marine protected areas (MPAs) that allow some degree of artisanal fishing have been proposed to control the overexploitation of marine resources while allowing extraction by local communities. Nevertheless, the management of MPAs is often impaired by the absence of data on the status of their resources. We devised a method to estimate population growth rates with the type of data that are usually available for reef fishes. We used 7 years of spatially explicit abundance data on the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in an MPA in the Gulf of California, Mexico, to construct a matrix population model that incorporated the effects of El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation on population dynamics. An environmental model that estimated different demographic estimates for El Niño and La Niña periods performed better than a single-environment model, and a single-habitat model performed better than a model that considered different depths as different habitats. Our results suggest that the population of the leopard grouper off the main island of the MPA is not viable under present conditions. Although the impact of fishing on leopard grouper populations in the MPA has not yet been established, fishing should be closed as a precautionary measure at this island if a priority of the MPA is to ensure the sustainability of its fish populations.     

Eutrophication and Consumer Control of New England Salt Marsh Primary Productivity

Abstract:  Although primary productivity in salt marshes is thought to be controlled by physical forces, recent evidence suggests that human disturbances can drive a switch to consumer control in these ecologically valuable ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that nitrogen enrichment can trigger consumer control in salt marshes in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, with (1) a field experiment in which we manipulated nutrient availability (with nutrient additions) and insect herbivory (with insecticide application), (2) a survey of 20 salt marshes that examined the relationship between marsh nutrient status and herbivore pressure, and (3) insect herbivore removal at high and low nutrient input sites to directly test the hypothesis that nutrient enrichment is increasing insect herbivory in these marshes. Experimental nitrogen eutrophication initially increased plant productivity but eventually led to reduced plant biomass due to insect herbivory, and our surveys revealed that marsh nitrogen supply was a good predictor of herbivore damage to plants. Insects had minimal impacts on primary productivity in pristine marshes, but suppressed primary productivity in eutrophic salt marshes by 50–75%. Thus, eutrophication is currently triggering consumer suppression of primary productivity in New England salt marshes and may ultimately jeopardize the ecological and societal services these systems provide.