Regional Consequences of Local Population Demography and Genetics in Relation to Habitat Management in Gentiana pneumonanthe

Abstract:  A joint demographic and population genetics stage-based model for a subdivided population was applied to Gentiana pneumonanthe , an early successional perennial herb, at a regional (metapopulation) scale. We used numerical simulations to determine the optimal frequency of habitat disturbance (sod cutting) and the intensity of gene flow among populations of G. pneumonanthe to manage both population viability and genetic diversity in this species. The simulations showed that even small populations that initially had near-equal allele frequencies could, if managed properly through sod cutting every 6 to 7 years, sustain their high genetic variation over the long run without gene flow. The more the allele frequencies in the small populations are skewed, however, the higher the probability that in the absence of gene flow, some alleles will be lost and within-population genetic variation will decrease even under proper management. This implies that although local population dynamics should be the major target for management, regional dynamics become important when habitat fragmentation and decreased population size lead to the loss of local genetic diversity. The recommended strategy to improve genetic composition of small populations is the introduction of seeds or seedlings of nonlocal origin.     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas     

Nest-Site Selection by Black Sparrowhawks Accipiter melanoleucus: Implications for Managing Exotic Pulpwood and Sawlog Forests in South Africa

This study provides timber growers with silvicultural guidelines for establishing and maintaining nest-tree habitat for native black sparrowhawks (Accipiter melanoleucus) in commercial planted forests in South Africa. In this country, exotic eucalypts and pines are planted principally for pulpwood and sawlog production. Nineteen nests were sampled in indigenous forests and 58 nests in exotic forests. Although mean nest heights differed between indigenous and exotic trees, in all trees, nests were positioned, on average, at 64% of tree height. Black sparrowhawks nested near stand edges, probably seeking a compromise between nesting adjacent to open hunting habitat and selecting an insulated tree from within the forest. Black sparrowhawks nested in tall trees ( X- = 18-33 m for different tree species classes) with a large diameter (>60 cm). Unfortunately, the South African pulpwood and sawlog industry employ short rotations (<16 years) and high tree densities (>700 trees/ha) that do not allow the trees to attain the characteristics suitable for black sparrowhawk nesting sites. Eucalypt and pine nest stands must be of 25 x 25 m minimum size and incorporate 10 trees at minimum heights of 21 and 18 m and diameters of 37 and 35 cm, respectively. If such nest-tree stands are set aside as islands in a sea of commercial forests, and black sparrowhawks and other forest raptors nest in them, timber growers will improve the tree-nesting raptor diversity of planted forests. If, however, these raptors prey upon species of conservation importance, the management recommendations could be reversed to limit the potential for predation.