Modeling atmospheric nitrogen deposition and transport in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Atmospheric deposition of nitrate nitrogen and ammonium nitrogen has been identified as a major factor in the decline of water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. Reports have indicated that atmospheric deposition may account for 25 to 80% of the total nitrogen load entering the bay. However, uncertainties exist regarding the accuracy of the atmospheric deposition inputs, nitrogen retention coefficients, and in-stream nutrient uptake rates used in these studies. This project was designed to reassess the potential inputs of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the bay through the use of a high-resolution wet deposition model, improved wet and dry deposition and nutrient retention estimates, existing soils and land use data, and geographic information systems software. Model results indicate that the methods used in previous studies may overestimate the contribution of atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition to the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW). Wet and dry atmospheric nitrate and ammonium nitrogen deposition estimates to the CBW ranged from 52.7 to 141.9 and 41.9 to 60.1 million kg/yr, respectively, between 1984 and 1996. Dry and total atmospheric deposition loads to the watershed are substantially less than previous estimates. Estimates of the percent contribution of atmospherically deposited nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay represent between 20 and 32% of the total nitrate and ammonium nitrogen load to the watershed from all nitrogen sources. While these estimates are lower than many other published estimates, regression analysis of model parameters, nitrogen retention coefficients, output, and measured in-stream nitrogen loads indicate that the calculated nitrogen loads may still be too high.     

Global Urban Growth and the Geography of Water Availability,Quality, and Delivery

Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.     

A comparison of rate-response toxicity tests with Aphidius rhopalosiphi (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae) using glass,leaves and whole plants as substrate

Rate-response toxicity tests on Aphidius rhopalosiphi were carried out with seven plant protection products using three different test systems. The first type of test system conformed to the standard laboratory testing guidelines and consisted of two treated glass plates fitted into a metal frame, which created an enclosure for the wasps. In the second type of test system, the plant protection products were applied to two bean-leaf disks mounted on agar filled dishes, which were fitted to a transparent plastic frame. The third type of test system consisted of potted barley plants, which were treated and covered with an acrylic cylinder. Adult wasps were exposed to the dried residues of the products for 48 h before wasp mortality was assessed. For each product and test system, the LR50 value (application rate at which 50% mortality of the wasps occurs) was determined with a Bayesian Probit analysis. Technically, rate-response testing was feasible with all three test systems, and rate-response relationships could be established. The results support a sequential testing scheme, as the LR50 values increased from 'glass plate test' to 'excised leaf test' to 'whole plant test' with all tested products. The LR50 values were 7.8-340 times higher on whole plants than on glass plates. Because of the variability of this factor, a numerical safety factor cannot be used to substitute extended laboratory testing for regulatory purposes.     

Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.     

Errors in representing regional acid deposition with spatially sparse monitoring: Case studies of the eastern US using model predictions

The current study uses case studies of model-predicted regional precipitation and wet ion deposition over 5-year periods to estimate errors in corresponding regional values derived from the means of site-specific values within regions of interest located in the eastern US. The mean of model-predicted site-specific values for sites within each region was found generally to overestimate the corresponding model-predicted regional wet ion deposition. On an annual basis across four regions in the eastern US, these overestimates of regional wet ion deposition were typically between 5 and 25% and may be more exaggerated for individual seasons. Corresponding overestimates of regional precipitation were typically <5%, but may be more exaggerated for individual seasons. Period-to-period relative changes determined from the mean of site-based model-predicted wet deposition for the current regional ensembles of sites generally estimated larger beneficial effects of pollutant emissions reductions in comparison to changes based on model-predicted regional wet deposition. On an annual basis site-based relative changes were generally biased low compared to regional relative changes: differences were typically <7%, but they may also be more exaggerated for individual seasons. Spatial heterogeneities of the wet ion deposition fields with respect to the sparse monitoring site locations prevented the monitoring sites considered in the current study from providing regionally representative results. Monitoring site locations considered in the current study over-represent the geographical areas subject to both high emissions and high wet ion deposition and under-represent the geographical areas subject to low emissions and low wet deposition. Since the current case studies consider only those eastern US site locations that have supported concurrent wet and dry deposition monitoring, similar errors may be expected for dry and total deposition using results from the same monitoring site locations. Current case study results illustrate the approximate range of potential errors and suggest caution when inferring regional acid deposition from a network of sparse monitoring sites.     

Wildfire, landscape diversity and the Drossel-Schwabl model

How simple can a model be that still captures essential aspects of wildfire ecosystems at large spatial and temporal scales? The Drossel-Schwabl model (DSM) is a metaphorical forest-fire model developed to reproduce only one pattern of real systems: a frequency distribution of fire sizes resembling a power law. Consequently, and because it appears oversimplified, it remains unclear what bearings the DSM has in reality. Here, we test whether the DSM is capable of reproducing a pattern that was not considered in its design, the hump-shaped relation between the diversity of succession stages and average annual area burnt. We found that the model, once reformulated to represent succession, produces realistic landscape diversity patterns. We investigated four succession scenarios of forest-fire ecosystems in the USA and Canada. In all scenarios, landscape diversity is highest at an intermediate average annual area burnt as predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. These results show that a model based solely on the dynamics of the fuel mosaic has surprisingly high predictive power with regard to observed statistical properties of wildfire systems at large spatial scales. Parsimonious models, such as the DSM can be used as starting points for systematic development of more structurally realistic but tractable wildfire models. Due to their simplicity they allow analytical approaches that further our understanding under increasing complexity.     

Denitrification mitigates N flux through the stream-floodplain complex of a desert city

The Indian Bend Wash (IBW) flood-control project relies on a greenbelt to carry floods through Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. The greenbelt is characterized by a chain of shallow artificial lakes in a larger floodplain of irrigated turf, which has been protected from encroaching urban development. As such, this urban stream-floodplain complex can be divided into three subsystems: artificial lakes, channelized stream segments, and floodplain. We conducted experiments to evaluate which, if any, of these subsystems were important sites of denitrification, and to explore factors controlling denitrification rates. Denitrification enzyme activity (DEA) bioassays were conducted on sediments from eight lake and six stream segments as well as soil samples from eight floodplain transects. Mass-specific potential denitrification rates were significantly higher in lakes than in streams or floodplains. Nutrient limitation bioassays revealed that nitrate (NO3-) limited denitrification in lake sediments, a surprising finding given that NO3(-)-rich groundwater additions frequently raised lake NO3(-) concentration above 1 mg N/L. Experiments on intact lake cores suggested that denitrification was limited by the rate NO3(-) diffused into sediments, rather than its availability in overlying water. Floodplain denitrification was limited by water content, not NO3(-) or C, and irrigation of soils stimulated denitrification. We constructed a N budget for the IBW stream-floodplain complex based on our experimental results. We found that both lakes and floodplains removed large quantities of N, with denitrification removing 261 and 133 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) from lake sediments and floodplain soils, respectively, indicating that lakes are hotspots for denitrification. Nevertheless, because floodplain area was >4.5 times that of lakes, floodplain soils removed nearly 2.5 times as much N as lake sediments. Given the desert's low annual precipitation, a finding that floodplain soils are active sites of denitrification might seem implausible; however, irrigation is common in urban landscapes, and it elevated annual denitrification in IBW. Based on our results, we conclude that construction of artificial lakes created hotspots while application of irrigation water created hot moments for denitrification in the stream-floodplain complex, demonstrating that management decisions can improve the ability of urban streams to provide critical ecosystem services like N retention.     

Sequestration of phorbolesters by the aposematically coloured bug Pachycoris klugii (Heteroptera: Scutelleridae) feeding on Jatropha curcas (Euphorbiaceae)

Summary. The phorbol ester DHPB has been detected in 5th instars and adults of Pachycoris klugii which feed on Jatropha curcas, a producer of phorbol esters with mollusc-, insect-, and vertebrate toxicity. DHPB from Pachycoris activates protein kinase C (PKC) which appears to be the main molecular target for phorbol esters. Phorbol esters of J. curcas exhibit a wide range of acute toxic effects in vertebrates and insects. It is therefore likely that the sequestration of DHPB, which would explain the aposematic colouration of the bugs, confers chemical protection to P. klugii against vertebrate predators. Received 26 April 2000; accepted 31 May 2000