Early Warning and Response: Why the International Community Failed to Prevent the Genocide

Western leadership … has proclaimed moral indifference to be its decent Christian right John le Carré (1995, p. 213).
The enormity of the genocide in Rwanda demands that it be subjected to searching enquiry and that members of the international community, collectively and individually, examine their own roles in the event.
This paper draws extensively on Study II of the Joint Evaluation, and examines the effectiveness of international monitoring (early warning) and management of the Rwanda conflict. It is not intended to explore all the factors which together contributed to the genocide that were or might have been amenable to modification by the international community. The focus is on warning and response beginning with the start of the civil war in 1990, and culminating in an analysis of the international response to the genocide in April–June 1994.     

Incorporation of Spatial and Economic Analyses of Human‐Use Data in the Design of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: Social, economic, and ecological criteria contribute to the successful design, implementation, and management of marine protected areas (MPAs). In the context of California's Marine Life Protection Act Initiative, we developed a set of methods for collecting, compiling, and analyzing data about the spatial extent and relative economic importance of commercial and recreational fishing. We interviewed 174 commercial fishers who represented the major fisheries in the initiative's north‐central coast region, which extends from Point Arena south to Pigeon Point. These fishers provided data that we used to map the extent of each of the fishing grounds, to weight the relative importance of areas within the grounds, to characterize the operating costs of each fishery, and to analyze the potential economic losses associated with proposed marine protected areas. A regional stakeholder group used the maps and impact analyses in conjunction with other data sets to iteratively identify economic and ecological trade‐offs in designations of different areas as MPAs at regional, port, and fishery extents. Their final proposed MPA network designated 20% of state waters as MPAs. Potential net economic loss ranged from 1.7% to 14.2% in the first round of network design and totaled 6.3% in the final round of design. This process is a case study in the application of spatial analysis to validate and integrate local stakeholder knowledge in marine planning.     

Increased Behavioral Variation and the Calculation of Release Numbers for Reintroduction Programs

Abstract:  Captive populations can exhibit more behavioral variation than their wild counterparts as a result of relaxed selective pressures in the captive environment. This increased variation can translate into decreased survivorship upon reintroduction to native habitats. Data show that captive populations of oldfield mice ( Peromyscus polionotus subgriseus ) exhibit such an increase in variation. Motivated by these results, we developed a series of calculations for a "release ratio" that can be used to determine the number of captive-bred animals needed to compensate for the increased variance. We present calculations of release ratios for behavioral and morphological variables with different distributions and illustrate the functional relationship between release numbers, increased variation, and change in average behavior and morphology. Our calculations indicated that the release of 130–150 captive-bred oldfield mice is equivalent to the release of 100 wildlike animals. Release ratios will vary among species, however, and perhaps among different populations of the same species and should be calculated separately for each situation. Development of the release ratio is the first rigorous effort to incorporate behavioral and morphological changes due to captivity into reintroduction planning. Release ratios will help conservation biologists ensure that the appropriate number of animals is released, thus increasing the success of reintroduction programs.     

Salt Marsh Harvest Mice, Urban Development, and Rising Sea Levels

Abstract: The salt marsh harvest mouse, Reithrodontomys raviventris , is endemic to the marshes of San Francisco Bay. Ultimate factors such as rising sea level and tectonic changes will play important roles in the future management of the mouse, causing a shift from tidal marshes threatened by submergence to diked marshes threatened by development Land values and government regulations force the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and other agencies into proximate management strategies to recover the species. Whether large enough areas of diked marsh can be acquired in the near future to adequately protect the mouse in perpetuity is questioned.     

Public Preference for Endemism over Other Conservation-Related Species Attributes

Abstract:  Public preferences are likely to play an important role in prioritizing species at risk for conservation. We conducted a survey of British Columbians (Canada) ( n = 555 , r = 73 % ) to examine how the public ranks a species' attributes (rather than named species) with respect to conservation priority. Endemism, defined as species only or mainly occurring in British Columbia or species occurring in British Columbia and nowhere else in Canada, was considered the most important among the measured attributes. This preference was strongest among men and among respondents who had completed postsecondary education. The preference for endemism is generally consistent with science-based federal listings of British Columbian species. This congruence between listing and public opinion is welcome if such congruence is considered important. We suggest that investigating how much the public values species' attributes, as opposed to named species, provides a more efficient way of incorporating public opinion into policies on species at risk, especially if large numbers of species must be ranked for conservation priority .     

Long‐Range Movement of Humpback Whales and Their Overlap with Anthropogenic Activity in the South Atlantic Ocean

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) are managed by the International Whaling Commission as 7 primary populations that breed in the tropics and migrate to 6 feeding areas around the Antarctic. There is little information on individual movements within breeding areas or migratory connections to feeding grounds. We sought to better understand humpback whale habitat use and movements at breeding areas off West Africa, and during the annual migration to Antarctic feeding areas. We also assessed potential overlap between whale habitat and anthropogenic activities. We used Argos satellite‐monitored radio tags to collect data on 13 animals off Gabon, a primary humpback whale breeding area. We quantified habitat use for 3 cohorts of whales and used a state‐space model to determine transitions in the movement behavior of individuals. We developed a spatial metric of overlap between whale habitat and models of cumulative human activities, including oil platforms, toxicants, and shipping. We detected strong heterogeneity in movement behavior over time that is consistent with previous genetic evidence of multiple populations in the region. Breeding areas for humpback whales in the eastern Atlantic were extensive and extended north of Gabon late in the breeding season. We also observed, for the first time, direct migration between West Africa and sub‐Antarctic feeding areas. Potential overlap of whale habitat with human activities was the highest in exclusive economic zones close to shore, particularly in areas used by both individual whales and the hydrocarbon industry. Whales potentially overlapped with different activities during each stage of their migration, which makes it difficult to implement mitigation measures over their entire range. Our results and existing population‐level data may inform delimitation of populations and actions to mitigate potential threats to whales as part of local, regional, and international management of highly migratory marine species. Cuantificación de los Movimientos de Gran Amplitud y el Traslape Potencial con Actividad Antropogénica y las Ballenas Jorobadas en el Océano Atlántico Sur     

Variability in Population Abundance and the Classification of Extinction Risk

Abstract: Classifying species according to their risk of extinction is a common practice and underpins much conservation activity. The reliability of such classifications rests on the accuracy of threat categorizations, but very little is known about the magnitude and types of errors that might be expected. The process of risk classification involves combining information from many sources, and understanding the quality of each source is critical to evaluating the overall status of the species. One common criterion used to classify extinction risk is a decline in abundance. Because abundance is a direct measure of conservation status, counts of individuals are generally the preferred method of evaluating whether populations are declining. Using the thresholds from criterion A of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (critically endangered, decline in abundance of >80% over 10 years or 3 generations; endangered, decline in abundance of 50–80%; vulnerable, decline in abundance of 30–50%; least concern or near threatened, decline in abundance of 0–30%), we assessed 3 methods used to detect declines solely from estimates of abundance: use of just 2 estimates of abundance; use of linear regression on a time series of abundance; and use of state‐space models on a time series of abundance. We generated simulation data from empirical estimates of the typical variability in abundance and assessed the 3 methods for classification errors. The estimates of the proportion of falsely detected declines for linear regression and the state‐space models were low (maximum 3–14%), but 33–75% of small declines (30–50% over 15 years) were not detected. Ignoring uncertainty in estimates of abundance (with just 2 estimates of abundance) allowed more power to detect small declines (95%), but there was a high percentage (50%) of false detections. For all 3 methods, the proportion of declines estimated to be >80% was higher than the true proportion. Use of abundance data to detect species at risk of extinction may either fail to detect initial declines in abundance or have a high error rate.     

POLITICAL RISK AS A VARIABLE IN TNC DECISION-MAKING

Political risk analysis has become a more prominent part of the decision-making process for transnational corporations (TNCs), particularly where capital investments in developing countries are concerned. An increased awareness of the views taken by TNCs on political risk abroad will enable political leaders of developing countries to bargain more effectively. TNCs use various methods to assess political risks. Direct field visits by senior personnel, advice from senior local managers, panels of experts, and quantitative methods are four currently popular techniques. These techniques are often applied without adequate analysis. TNCs can control their exposure to political risk by joining with local firms, and through loan guarantees insurance, or multi-country financing of equity investments. Policymakers in developing countries can respond successfully to the increased awareness by TNCs of political risk assessment methods by emphasizing the political opportunities of investing in their countries. La place qu'occupe l'analyse des risques politiques dans le processus de décisions des sociétés transnationales est devenue plus importante, en particulier en ce qui concerne les investissements en capitaux dans les pays en développement. Une connaissance plus approfondie des points de vue de ces sociétés sur les risques politiques à l'étranger permettrait aux dirigeants politiques des pays en développement de mener leurs négociations d'une manière plus efficace. Les sociétés transnationales emploient diverses méthodes pour évaluer les risques politiques. Des inspections directes sur le terrain par un personnel supérieur, l'avis de cadres supérieurs nationaux, des groupes d'experts et des méthodes quantitatives constituent quatre techniques couramment utilisées. Ces techniques sont souvent dépourvues d'analyse adéquate. Les sociétés transnationales peuvent contrôler les risques politiques auxquelles elles s'exposent en s'associant aux firmes locales et par l'assurance de garantie de prêts ou le financement multinational des prises de participations. Les responsables des pays en développement peuvent répondre avec succès à la connaissance croissante des sociétés transnationales des méthodes d'évaluation de risques politiques en mettant l'emphase sur les opportunités politiques d'investissements dans leurs pays. El análisis del reisgo politico se ha convertido en una parte importante del proceso de toma de decisiones por parte de las compañias transnacionales (CT), en especial cuando se refiere a inversiones de capital en los países en desarrollo. Un mayor conocimiento de los puntos de vista de las CT sobre los riesgos en estos países permitirá a los líderes de los países en desarrollo a negociar con más efectividad. Las CT usan varios métodos para estimar el riesgo político. Visitas a los paises por ejecutivos de alto nivel, recomendaciones de ejecutivos locales, paneles de expertos y métodos cuantitativos, son cuatro métodos de los más comunmente usados. Estos métodos son a menudo usados sin mucho análisis. Las CT minimizan el riesgo político asociándose con compañías locales, a través de seguros de garantía sobre préstamos, o mediante financiamiento multinacional. Los líderes de los países en desarrollo pueden responder con éxito a los métodos de evaluación de riesgo de las CT enfatizando las oportunidades politicas de investir en sus países.