Prediction of SVOC vegetation and atmospheric concentrations using calculated deposition velocities

A simple modeling concept was previously applied to study air-foliage exchange of both polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) using field measurements. In this paper, the predictive capabilities of this framework were tested using an independent set of data collected at the same sampling location for a different time period. Firstly, atmospheric (particle-bound and gaseous phase) PBDE and PAH concentrations were used to predict their accumulation in spruce needles. Conversely, we used PBDE and PAH concentrations in vegetation to predict their atmospheric concentrations. In both cases, calculated and measured values showed good agreement, providing evidence that the developed framework and our derived deposition velocities can be used as a predictive tool for these two different classes of semi-volatile organic compounds.     

消融的冰川：加拿大班夫国家公园亚高山带鲍湖中持久性有机氯的主要来源

有机氯杀虫剂和多氯联苯（PCB）是环境中普遍而稳固的化合物。现已查明，由于它们从温暖的地区逐渐蒸发出来，并在较冷的地区凝聚下来，因而它们富集在寒冷的环境中。在本研究中，我们的结果是，消融的冰川供给阿尔伯达亚高山带湖泊中的有机氯输入量为50%～97％，而提供的水量为73％。对氚的分析结果表明，在夏季的中、晚期，至少10％的冰川消融物是在1950～1970年期间沉积下来的，这期间它受到有机氯更多的污染。这一发现表明，气候变暖可能会使消融的冰川成为日益增多的淡水污染物来源。由于有机物贫乏的冰川粘土对多氯联苯这样的疏水化合物的吸附能力有限，因此冰川水流带来的有机氯大多呈溶解状态。     

Heterogeneity shapes invasion: host size and environment influence susceptibility to a nonnative pathogen.

Theoretical study of invasion dynamics has suggested that spatial heterogeneity should strongly influence the rate and extent of spreading organisms. However, empirical support for this prediction is scant, and the importance of understanding heterogeneity for real-world systems has remained ambiguous. This study quantified the influence of host and environmental heterogeneity on the dynamics of a 19-year disease invasion by the exotic and fatal pathogen, Phytophthora lateralis, within a stream population of its host tree, Port Orford cedar (Chamaecyparis lawsoniana). Using dendrochronology, we reconstructed the invasion history along a 1350-m length of infected stream, which serves as the only route of pathogen dispersal. Contrary to theoretical predictions, the temporal progression of the disease invasion was not related to a host's downstream spatial position, but instead was determined by two sources of heterogeneity: host size and proximity to the stream channel. These sources of heterogeneity influenced both the epidemic and endemic dynamics of this pathogen invasion. This analysis provides empirical support for the influence of heterogeneity on the invasion dynamics of a commercially important forest pathogen and highlights the need to incorporate such natural variability into both invasion theory and methods aimed at controlling future spread.     

Bioaccumulation of the pharmaceutical 17α-ethinylestradiol in shorthead redhorse suckers (Moxostoma macrolepidotum) from the St. Clair River, Canada

17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2), a synthetic estrogen prescribed as a contraceptive, was measured in Shorthead Redhorse Suckers (ShRHSs) (Moxostoma macrolepidotum) collected near a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in the St. Clair River (Ontario, Canada). We detected EE2 in 50% of the fish samples caught near the WWTP (Stag Island), which averaged 1.6 ± 0.6 ng/g (wet weight) in males and 1.43 ± 0.96 ng/g in females. No EE2 was detected in the samples from the reference site (Port Lambton) which was 26 km further downstream of the Stag Island site. Only males from Stag Island had VTG induction, suggesting the Corunna WWTP effluent as a likely source of environmental estrogen. EE2 concentrations were correlated with total body lipid content (R² = 0.512, p < 0.01, n = 10). Lipid normalized EE2 concentrations were correlated with δ¹⁵N (R² = 0.436, p < 0.05, n = 10), suggesting higher EE2 exposures in carnivores. Our data support the hypothesis of EE2 bioaccumulation in wild fish.     

Individual-based modelling of fishermen search behaviour with neural networks and reinforcement learning

A model to mimic the search behaviour of fishermen is built with two neural networks to cope with two separate decision-making processes in fishing activities. One neural network deals with decisions to stay or move to new fishing grounds and the other is constructed for the purpose of finding prey within the fishing areas. Some similarities with the behaviour of real fishermen are found: concentrated local search once a prey has been located to increase the probability of remaining near a prey patch and the straightforward movement to other fishing grounds. The artificial fisherman prefers areas near the port when conditions in different fishing grounds are similar or when there is high uncertainty in its world. In the latter case a reluctance to navigate to other areas is observed. The artificial fisherman selects areas with higher concentration of prey, even if they are far from the port of departure, unless a high uncertainty is related to the fishing ground. Connected areas are preferred and followed in orderly fashion if a higher catch is expected. The observed behaviour of the artificial fisherman in uncertain scenarios can be described as a risk-averse attitude. The approach seems appropriate for an individual-based modelling of fishery systems, focusing on the learning and adaptive characteristics of fishermen and on interactions that take place at a fine scale.     

Can Sustainable Agriculture Feed Africa? New Evidence on Progress, Processes and Impacts

Africa faces enormous food security challenges. Most commentators agree that, despite the complexities of food insecurity, there will have to be increases in food production from existing agricultural land. Most, too, are pessimistic about the future, judging likelihood of success on the basis of past performance of modern agricultural development. Sustainable agriculture, though, offers new opportunities, by emphasising the productive values of natural, social and human capital, all assets that Africa either has in abundance or that can be regenerated at low financial cost.This paper sets out an assets-based model of agricultural systems, together with a typology of eight improvements that are currently in use in sustainable agriculture projects. In the 45 projects/initiatives spread across 17 countries that are investigated, some 730,000 households have substantially improved food production and household food security. In 95% of the projects where yield increases were the aim, cereal yields have improved by 50–100%. Total farm food production has increased in all. The additional positive impacts on natural, social and human capital are also helping to build the assets base so as to sustain these improvements in the future.This analysis indicates that sustainable agriculture can deliver large increases in food production in Africa. But spreading these to much larger numbers of farm households will not be easy. It will require substantial policy, institutional and professional reform.