Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.     

Optimal Marking of Threatened Species to Balance Benefits of Information with Impacts of Marking

Abstract: Marking animals so that they are uniquely identifiable provides information that may assist conservation efforts. Nevertheless, some methods used to mark animals can be harmful. We used mathematical methods to assess the trade‐off between the impact of marking threatened species and the value of the information gained. We considered the case where 2 management strategies, each aiming to improve a species' survival rate, are implemented in an experimental phase. The results of the experiment were applied in a postexperimental management phase. We expressed the expected number of survivors in both phases mathematically, accounting for any mortality caused by the experiment, and determined the proportion of animals to mark to maximize this number. The optimal number of animals to mark increased with the number of individuals available for the experiment and with the number of individuals to be managed in the future. The optimal solution was to mark only 25% of the animals when there were 1000 individuals available for the experiment, the results were used to manage 2000 individuals, and marking caused mortality of 1%. Fewer animals were marked when there were fewer animals in either phase or when marking caused higher mortality. In the case of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix), the optimal proportion to mark was <1 if the mortality rate was >0.15%–1%, with the threshold depending on the number of animals in the experimental and postexperimental phases. The trade‐off between gaining more information about a species and possibly harming individuals of that species by marking them is difficult to assess subjectively. We show how to determine objectively the optimal proportion of animals to mark to enhance the management of threatened species.     

The Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan

Abstract:  Implemented in 1994, the Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan was designed to restore and maintain ecological processes for aquatic and riparian area conservation on federal lands in the western portion of the Pacific Northwest. We used decision support models to quantitatively evaluate changes in the condition of selected watersheds. In the approximately 10 years since strategy implementation, watershed condition scores changed modestly, but conditions improved in 64% of 250 sampled watersheds, declined in 28%, and remained relatively the same in 7%. Watersheds that had the largest declines included some where wildfires burned 30–60% of their area. The overall statistical distribution of the condition scores did not change significantly, however. Much of the increase in watershed condition was related to improved riparian conditions. The number of large trees (>51 cm diameter at breast height) increased 2–4%, and there were substantial reductions in tree harvest and other disturbances along streams. Whether such changes will translate into longer-term improvements in aquatic ecosystems across broader landscapes remains to be seen.     

Obstacles to Bottom‐Up Implementation of Marine Ecosystem Management

Abstract: Ecosystem management (EM) offers a means to address multiple threats to marine resources. Despite recognition of the importance of stakeholder involvement, most efforts to implement EM in marine systems are the product of top‐down regulatory control. We describe a rare, stakeholder‐driven attempt to implement EM from the bottom up in San Juan County, Washington (U.S.A.). A citizens advisory group led a 2‐year, highly participatory effort to develop an ecosystem‐based management plan, guided by a preexisting conservation‐planning framework. A key innovation was to incorporate social dimensions by designating both sociocultural and biodiversity targets in the planning process. Multiple obstacles hindered implementation of EM in this setting. Despite using a surrogate scheme, the information‐related transaction costs of planning were substantial: information deficits prevented assessment of some biodiversity targets and insufficient resources combined with information deficits prevented scientific assessment of the sociocultural targets. Substantial uncertainty, practical constraints to stakeholder involvement, and the existence of multiple, potentially conflicting, objectives increased negotiation‐related costs. Although information deficits and uncertainty, coupled with underinvestment in the transaction costs of planning, could reduce the long‐term effectiveness of the plan itself, the social capital and momentum developed through the planning process could yield unforeseeable future gains in protection of marine resources. The obstacles we identified here will require early and sustained attention in efforts to implement ecosystem management in other grassroots settings.     

The Threat of Transformation: Quantifying the Vulnerability of Grasslands in South Africa

Abstract:  The ability to predict which areas of conservation importance are most vulnerable to transformation and to rank the relative damage that transforming land uses could cause to biodiversity are important components of an effective and realistic conservation planning process. We used the South African grassland biome as a case study to illustrate the assessment of vulnerability to land-use transformation through the construction of a "threat map." We identified the dominant transforming land uses and created suitability models based on area appropriateness for each. Land uses were scored according to their expected relative impacts on biodiversity, with a framework that included compositional, structural, and functional components. This information, once combined, resulted in a map that highlighted the areas most vulnerable to transformation in terms of the likelihood of their transformation and the impact on their biodiversity. We propose that such an analysis of the threat of transformation, in combination with species-representation approaches, will aid the integration of conservation planning theory and decision making. This approach can be applied at any scale and in any region with a robustness and accuracy dependent on data quality, resultant suitability models, and comprehension of how land uses affect an area's biodiversity.