Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Systematic evaluation of dissolved lead sorption losses to particulate syringe filter materials

Distinguishing between soluble and particulate lead in drinking water is useful in understanding the mechanism of lead release and identifying remedial action. Typically, particulate lead is defined as the amount of lead removed by a 0.45-μm filter. Unfortunately, there is little guidance regarding selection of filter membrane material and little consideration to the possibility of the sorption of dissolved lead to the filter. The objective of this work was to examine the tendency of 0.45-μm syringe filter materials to adsorb lead. Tests were performed with water containing 40 and 24 μg/L soluble lead at pH 7 buffered with 50 mg C/L dissolved inorganic concentration (DIC). The amounts of lead sorbed greatly varied by filter, and only two filter types, polypropylene and mixed cellulose esters, performed well and are recommended. Great care must be taken in choosing a filter when filtering soluble lead and interpreting filter results.     

What Exactly Is an Endangered Species? An Analysis of the U.S. Endangered Species List: 1985–1991

Critics of the Endangered Species Act have asserted that is protects an inordinate number of subspecies and populations, in addition to full species, and that the scientific rationale for listing decisions is absent or weak. We reviewed all U.S. plants and animals proposed for listing or added to the endangered species list from 1985 through 1991 to determine the relative proportion of species, subspecies, and populations, and their rarity at time of listing. Approximately 80% of the taxa added to the list were full species, 18% were subspecies, and 2% were distinct populations segments of more widespread vertebrate species. The proportion of subspecies and populations was considerably higher among birds and mammals than among other groups. The median populations size at time of listing for vertebrate animals was 1075 individuals; for invertebrate animals it was 999. The median population size of a plant at time of listing was less than 120 individuals. Earlier listing of declining species could significantly improve the likelihood of successful recovery, and it would provide land managers and private citizens with more options for protecting vanishing plants and animals at less social or economic cost.     

Examples of the role of analytical chemistry in environmental risk management research

Analytical chemistry is an important tier of environmental protection and has been traditionally linked to compliance and/or exposure monitoring activities for environmental contaminants. The adoption of the risk management paradigm has led to special challenges for analytical chemistry applied to environmental risk analysis. Namely, methods developed for regulated contaminants may not be appropriate and/or applicable to risk management scenarios. This paper contains examples of analytical chemistry applied to risk management challenges broken down by the analytical approach and analyte for some selected work in our laboratory. Specific techniques discussed include stable association complex electrospray mass spectrometry (cESI-MS), gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), split-flow thin cell (SPLITT) fractionation and matrix-assisted laser desorption time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-ToF-MS). Specific analytes include haloacetic acids (HAA9), perchlorate, bromate, triazine degradation products, metal-contaminated colloids and Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts.     

Parameters Influencing Sediments Resuspension and the Link to Sorption of Inorganic Compounds

In the aquatic environment, the accumulation of chemicalcontaminants by sediments poses a potential threat to endemiclife forms and drinking water resources. Trace metals such asCd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and toxic organic compounds, are among awide variety of contaminants having an affinity for sediments.In this study, experiments were performed simulating sedimentresuspension in the lower Housatonic River, Connecticut, using aParticle Entrainment Simulator. Analyses of grain sizedistributions, porosities and total organic contents of thesediments suggested that these parameters influence theredistribution and entrainment of settleable solids in the watercolumn. These findings were established by evaluating the impactof one parameter on sediment resuspension as a function ofstream flow with the other two characteristics being heldconstant. Total suspended solids and volatile suspended solidsresuspension concentration ranged from 3.2 to 20648.3 mg L^-1,and 1.5 to 1823.8 mg L^-1, respectively, with subsequentincreases in flow rates from 9 to 6 dynes cm^-2. The resuspension concentrations were augmentedby sediment porosity (22.0 to 57.5%), percent finer grain-size distributions at 0.1 mm, and total organic content (2.7 g kg^-1 to 29.0 g kg^-1). Using K _p values, and the dissolvedcontaminant levels of various trace metals, the particulatecontaminant levels of the metals were determined under variousoscillation rates. As sediment resuspension increased withincreased stream flow, there was an overall general increasefrom 0.02 to 33.6 g L^-1 in the particulatecontaminant levels of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni and Pb.     

喜马拉雅中部药用植物的商业评估

本研究对尼泊尔全国药用植物的年产量及商业价值进行了评估.我们对尼泊尔15个地区的当地药用植物交易者(n=149)和印度的地区批发商(n=53)进行了无限制问卷调查,借以收集数据.据估计,年交易额的范围为7000～27 000t,案例年份1997～1998年的产量为14 500t.按印度主要市场的地区批发商购买价格计算,相应的年出口额估计为700～3000万美元,1997～1998年为1600万美元.约有10%的农户参与了商品化采集.低海拔生态区在产量和价值两方面均占优势;就价值而言,药草是最重要的生活型.约有36%的产量和51%的价值来自破坏性采集.有人认为,年产量和价值数据仍有可能属于保守估计.本文还简短讨论了本研究结果对喜马拉雅药用植物保护及贸易的意义.     

S-100 protein and neuron-specific enolase in amniotic fluid as markers of abdominal wall and neural tube defects in the fetus

The aim of this study was to determine whether there is increased leakage of neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and S-100 protein into amniotic fluid in pregnancies with neural tube defects, since both these proteins are produced by neural tissue, and to compare the value of these substances for detecting such defects with that of the more conventional techniques of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) gel electrophoresis. Amniotic samples from 25 mid-pregnancies (15–17 weeks' gestation) with neural tube defects (14 with open spina bifida and 11 with anencephaly) and from seven mid-pregnancies with abdominal wall defects were compared with a control material consisting of 80 amniotic fluid samples from 80 consecutive mid-pregnancy amniocenteses, with normal karyotypes and AFP concentrations. All of the above cases of abnormalities were primarily detected through increased AFP levels in the amniotic fluid. Amniotic fluid samples from 13 pregnancies with fetuses with autosomal chromosomal abnormalities and seven amniotic fluid samples contaminated with blood were also included in the investigation. It is concluded from the results that the conventional AFP assay combined with AChE gel electrophoresis is the best method for screening amniotic fluid for neural tube defects and defects of the abdominal wall. Neither NSE nor S-100 assay alone proved to be superior for the detection of these cases in mid-trimester amniotic fluid. The S-100 assay, however, could give additional information in cases where AChE gel electrophoresis is not decisive; for example, in samples contaminated with blood.     

INCREASED BASEFLOW IN IOWA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight‐digit hydrologic unit code (HUC‐8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual base flow, annual minimum flow, and the annual base flow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as base flow than as storm flow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed stream flow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds.     

Impact of Land Use on Soluble Organic Nitrogen in Soil

Although it has been hypothesized that soluble organic nitrogen (SON) plays a central role in regulating productivity in some terrestrial ecosystems, the factors controlling the size of the SON pool in soil remain poorly understood. Therefore our principal aim in this work was to assess the impact of seven different land use systems (rough and managed grassland, deciduous and coniferous woodland, heathland, wetland and tilled land) on the size of the SON and inorganic N (NO ₃ ^– , NH ₄ ⁺ ) pools in the surface soil layer (0–15 cm). After extraction with deionised water, we found that in most cases the size of the water extractable organic N (WEON) pool was similar in size to the inorganic N pool. In contrast, the KCl extractable organic N (KClEON) pool constituted the dominant form of soluble N in soils under all land uses, perhaps indicating that significant amounts were held on the soil exchange phase. In contrast to inorganic N, which varied significantly with land use, the size of the KClEON and WEON pool was similar for all land uses with the exception of KClEON in tilled land, where significantly lower amounts were observed. We conclude that SON constitutes an important soil N pool in a broad range of land uses, and that its role in microbial N assimilation, plant nutrition and ecosystem responses to atmospheric N deposition warrants further attention. SAFRD, University of Newcastle, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, U.K.