为了有效地控制波罗的海的污染:对当前一些污染减排政策失败的剖析及建议

我们应用生态-经济学模型,研究了波罗的海国家关于将每一个国家的营养物质排放总量减少一半的宣言.这一模型包括以国家为基础的减排污染物费用函数和描述磷和氮如何从一国流动到另一国的转移系数(由波罗的海水文学模型估算而得).结果表明,就氮而言,目前的减排政策和成本一效益政策相比,减排费用非常高,而且各国受益不平衡.可以预料,那些减排边际成本高的国家,其执行上述减排协定以及对氮的减排投资的兴趣不会太大,这一结论已被我们的数据所证实=因此,我们建议并概要地提出一种联合执行政策,以使减排具有成本效益并鼓励进行减排投资.     

Renewable Resources in an Overlapping Generations Economy Without Capital

We incorporate a renewable resource into an overlapping generations model without capital and with quasi-linear preferences. Besides being an input for production the resource serves as a store of value. We characterize the dynamics, efficiency, and stability of the steady-state equilibria. The stability properties are sensitive to the type of resource growth. For constant growth there is only one steady-state equilibrium which is stable and efficient. In the general case of the concave growth function, there are usually at least two steady-state equilibria, one of which is stable and the other one unstable. The unstable steady state is efficient, but the stable one may or may not be. We study the robustness of our results by assuming a logarithmic utility function. We show that for the Cobb–Douglas production function the steady state is unique and stable regardless of whether the equilibrium is efficient or inefficient. Our analytical results are illustrated by numerical calculations.     

Flow cytometric method to measure urea-resistant alkaline phosphatase from blood neutrophils for use in the prenatal screening of Down's syndrome

The histochemical measurement of urea-resistant alkaline phosphatase from maternal blood neutrophils is known to have a high detection rate for the prenatal detection of Down's syndrome pregnancies. However, because the histochemical method is laborious and subjective to use, it has not gained widespread acceptance in prenatal screening programmes. We present a simple and objective method for the measurement of urea-resistant alkaline phosphatase by flow cytometry. The method should allow the design of larger studies aimed at evaluating the role of neutrophil urea-resistant alkaline phosphatase in the prenatal screening for Down's syndrome.     

Influence of no-tillage on the distribution and lability of phosphorus in Finnish clay soils

No-tillage (NT) is a method adopted to reduce erosion and particulate phosphorus (P) load from arable land to watercourses. However, it has been found to increase the loss of dissolved P with surface runoff, but the reasons for that have rarely been examined in detail. The objective of the present study was to determine the chemical factors explaining this response by investigating the impact of NT on the type and distribution of P reserves as well as on organic carbon (C) in the 0–35 cm topsoil layer of clay soil profiles (Vertic Cambisols). Soil samples were taken from two experimental fields (Jokioinen and Aurajoki) at 0–5, 5–20 and 20–35 cm depths in conventionally tilled (CT) and non-tilled (for 4–5 years) plots. The plots had been cultivated and fertilized according to the common field practices in Finland (15–18 kg P and 100–128 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹).Inorganic and organic P reserves characterized by a modified Chang and Jackson fractionation procedure were not significantly affected by the cultivation methods. However, in the uppermost soil layer (0–5 cm) in NT of the Jokioinen field, the labile P determined by water extraction (P_w) increased significantly, whereas the increase in P extracted with acid ammonium acetate (P_AAC) remained statistically insignificant. The increase in labile P coincided with a significant increase in organic carbon (C), which supports the theory that competition between organic anions and phosphate for the same sorption sites on oxide surfaces will enhance the lability of soil P. In the Aurajoki field with distinct soil cracking, P_w and P_AAC were not affected by NT in the uppermost soil layer, but they increased in the deepest soil layer (20–35 cm) concomitantly with an increase in Al-bound P and organic C. However, the increases were not statistically significant. In both fields, soil acidification due to the repeated application of N fertilizers at a shallow soil depth as well as the accumulation of organic C lowered pH of the uppermost soil layer in NT compared to the deeper soil layers. The results indicated that even short-term NT can increase the labile P in clay soil. However, further studies are needed to assess the long-term changes in lability of surface soil P and, consequently, the possible need for readjustment of the fertilization level in NT.     

Climate change,multiple stressors and human vulnerability: a systematic review

We systematically reviewed current climate change literature in order to examine how multiple processes that affect human vulnerability have been studied. Of the 125 reviewed articles, 79 % were published after 2009. There are numerous concepts that point out to stressors other than climate change that were used in reviewed studies. These different concepts were used interchangeably, and they illustrate processes that act on different scales. Most widely used concepts included non-climatic (40 % of the articles), multiple stressors (38 %) and other factors (37 %). About 75 % of the studies either acknowledged or carefully analyzed the social and environmental context in which vulnerability is experienced. One-third of the studies recognized climate change-related stressors as the most important, one-third argued that stressors other than climate are more important, and the rest of the studies did not analyze the relative importance of the different processes. Interactions between different stressors were mentioned in 76 % and analyzed explicitly in 28 % of the articles. Our review shows that there are studies that analyze the social context of vulnerability within climate change-related literature and this literature is rapidly expanding. Reviewed studies point out that there are multiple interacting stressors, whose interlinkages need to be carefully analyzed and targeted by policies, which integrate adaptation to climate change and other stressors. In conclusion, we suggest that future studies should include analytical frameworks that reflect dissimilarities between different types of stressors, methodological triangulation to identify key stressors and analysis of interactions between multiple stressors across different scales.     

Growth of northern deciduous trees under increasing atmospheric humidity: possible mechanisms behind the growth retardation

Regional Environmental Change - Increasing atmospheric humidity—a climate trend predicted for northern Europe—will reduce water flux through vegetation. Diminished transpirational water...     

Evidence of rich microbial communities in the subsoil of a boreal acid sulphate soil conducive to greenhouse gas emissions

The largest areas of acid sulphate (AS) soils in Europe are located in Finland, where 67,000–130,000 ha of AS soils are in agricultural use. In addition to their acidifying effects on waters, AS soils might be a significant source of greenhouse gases. In this pilot research, carbon and nitrogen content and microbial activity were studied in an AS and a non-AS soil. Large carbon and nitrogen stocks (110 Mg C_org ha^?1 and 15 Mg N_tot ha^?1) as well as high substrate induced respiration (33 μg CO₂–C g^?1h^?1) were found in the C horizons of the AS soil but not in the non-AS soil. High microbial activity in these horizons of the AS soil was further confirmed by the measurement of dehydrogenase activity, basal respiration, the numbers of culturable bacterial cells, and the ratio of culturable to total numbers of cells. Still, the denitrifying enzyme activity was very low in the anaerobic horizons of the AS soil, indicating the prevalence of microbes other than denitrifiers. We suspect that the microbial community originated with the genesis of AS soil and has been supported by the large stocks of accumulated carbon and mineral nitrogen in the C horizons. If these permanently water-saturated subsoils are exposed to oxygen and their microbial activity consequently increases, large carbon and nitrogen stocks are likely to be mobilised, resulting in increased emission of greenhouse gases. Additional studies of boreal AS soils are needed to assess their potential contribution to increases in greenhouse gas fluxes at the local, regional, and global scales.     

Occupational chemical exposure and risk estimation in process development and design

Each year more people die from diseases caused by work than are killed in industrial accidents. Therefore, methods are needed to evaluate occupational health hazards as early as possible when the process is still under development. A method for estimating inhalative exposures and risks in petrochemical and related plants is presented. The method is simple and suffices with the limited data availability during the early design stages.The steps of the method, which utilizes preliminary process flow diagrams are as follows: first the fugitive emissions and process plot areas are estimated based on precalculated process modules representing the typical process sections (such as a distillation unit). Chemical concentration in the air is then calculated based on the wind velocity probability and the estimated process cross-sectional area. For this purpose a typical wind velocity distribution in the area is used. The worker risk of exposure to chemicals is evaluated either based on the concentration in air by using the hazard quotient method or calculating the carcinogenic chemicals intake and the resulting risk of cancer. The values are compared to the benchmarks.As a result the process route health characteristics such as fugitive emissions rate, critical wind speed, chemical concentration in air and intake amount as well as the corresponding risk of exposure are produced. By using statistical meteorological data, health risks of occupational exposure can be estimated more realistically as probabilities. The approach is capable of comparing alternative processes to select the concept which is inherently occupationally healthier. Using this method, the exposure problems of a process can be identified earlier and proper decisions can be made early in process development or predesign stage.The concentration-based method is demonstrated by a case study of six competing manufacturing routes for methyl methacrylate (MMA). The C3 is found to be the most harmful alternative to health. Both concentration-based and intake-based methods are applied. The study indicates that the intake-based risk estimation benchmark is stricter than the exposure limit-based benchmark for carcinogens.     

A decision framework for possible remediation of contaminated sediments in the River Kymijoki, Finland

Background, aim, and scope  The paper describes the spatial contamination of the River Kymijoki, South-Eastern Finland, and the coastal region of the Gulf of Finland with PCDD/Fs and mercury. The findings of ecotoxicologial and human health studies are also reported, including environmental and human risk assessments. Sediments from the River Kymijoki, draining into the Gulf of Finland, have been heavily polluted by the pulp and paper industry and by chemical industries. A wood preservative, known as Ky-5, was manufactured in the upper reaches of the river between 1940 and 1984 causing severe pollution of river sediments with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF). Moreover, the sediments have been polluted with mercury (Hg) from chlor-alkali production and the use of Hg as a slimicide in pulp and paper manufacturing. Materials and methods  An extensive sediment survey was conducted as well as sediment transport modeling, toxicity screening of sediment invertebrates, and a survey of contaminant bioaccumulation in invertebrates and fish. Studies on human exposure to PCDD/Fs and the possible effects on hypermineralization of teeth as well as an epidemiological study to reveal increased cancer risk were also conducted. An assessment of the ecological and human health risks with a null hypothesis (no remediation) was undertaken. Results  The sediment survey revealed severe contamination of river and coastal sediments with PCDD/Fs and Hg. The total volume of contaminated sediments was estimated to reach 5 × 10⁶ m³ and hot spots with extremely high concentrations (max 292,000 ng g⁻¹ or 1,060 ng I-TEQ g⁻¹ d.w.) were located immediately downstream from the pollution source (approximately 90,000 m³). Sediment contamination was accompanied by changes in benthic assemblages, but direct effects were masked by many factors. The fish showed only slightly elevated PCDD/F levels in muscle, but orders of magnitude higher in the liver compared with reference freshwater sites and the Baltic Sea. The concentrations in human fat did not reveal high human exposure in the Kymijoki area in general and was lower than in sea fishermen. The relative risk for total cancer among farmers was marginally higher (RR = 1.13) among those living close to the river, compared with farmers living further away, and the possibility of increased cancer risk cannot be ruled out. A conservative risk assessment revealed that the present probability of exceeding the WHO upper exposure limit of 4 pg WHO-TEQ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs was 6%. The probability of exceeding the WHO limit value of 0.23 μg kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for methyl mercury was estimated to be notably higher at 62%. Based on these studies and the estimated risks connected with different remediation techniques a general remediation plan with cost benefit analysis was generated for several sub-regions in the river. Dredging, on-site treatment, and a close disposal of the most contaminated sediments (90,000 m³) was suggested as the first phase of the remediation. The decision regarding the start of remediation will be made during autumn 2008. Conclusions  The sediments in the River Kymijoki are heavily polluted with PCDD/Fs and mercury from earlier chlorophenol, chlor-alkali, and pulp and paper manufacturing. A continuous transport of contaminants is taking place to the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The highly increased PCDD/F and Hg levels in river sediments pose an ecotoxicological risk to benthic fauna, to fish-eating predators and probably to human health. The risks posed by mercury exceed those from PCDD/Fs and need to be evaluated for (former) chlor-alkali sites and other mercury releasing industries as one basis for remediation decision making. Recommendations and perspectives  The studies form the basis of a risk management strategy and a plan for possible remediation of contaminated sediments currently under consideration in the Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre. It is recommended that a detailed restoration plan for the most seriously contaminated areas should be undertaken. Based on current knowledge, the restoration of the whole river is not feasible, considering the current risk caused by the contaminated sediment in the river and the costs of an extensive restoration project. The experiences gained in the present case should be utilized in the evaluation of PCDD/F- and mercury-contaminated sites in other countries. The case demonstrates that the historic reservoirs are of contemporary relevance and should be addressed, e.g., in the national implementation plans of the Stockholm Convention. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.