Novel Organisms: Comparing Invasive Species, GMOs, and Emerging Pathogens

Invasive species, range-expanding species, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), synthetic organisms, and emerging pathogens increasingly affect the human environment. We propose a framework that allows comparison of consecutive stages that such novel organisms go through. The framework provides a common terminology for novel organisms, facilitating knowledge exchange among researchers, managers, and policy makers that work on, or have to make effective decisions about, novel organisms. The framework also indicates that knowledge about the causes and consequences of stage transitions for the better studied novel organisms, such as invasive species, can be transferred to more poorly studied ones, such as GMOs and emerging pathogens. Finally, the framework advances understanding of how climate change can affect the establishment, spread, and impacts of novel organisms, and how biodiversity affects, and is affected by, novel organisms.     

Spatio-temporal patterns in county-level incidence and reporting of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States, 1990–2000

We present an exploratory analysis of reported county-specific incidence of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States for the years 1990–2000. We briefly review the disease ecology of Lyme disease and the use of risk maps to describe local incidence as estimates of local risk of disease. We place the relevant elements of local environmental and ecological variables, local disease incidence, and (importantly) local disease reporting in a conceptual context to frame our analysis. We then apply hierarchical linear models of increasing complexity to summarize observed patterns in reported incidence, borrowing information across counties to improve local precision. We find areas of increasing incidence in the central northeastern Atlantic coast counties, increasing incidence branching to the north and west, and an area of fairly stable and slightly decreasing reported incidence in western New York.     

Phthalates and the aquatic environment: Part II The bioconcentration and depuration of di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) and di-isodecyl phthalate (DIDP) in mussels (Mytilus edulis)

Mussels ($\text{Mytilus edulis}$) were exposed to di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) and to di-isodecyl phthalate (DIDP) over a period of 28 days. The bioconcentration factor (BCF) as measured by ¹⁴C analysis, reached estimated plateau levels corresponding to mean BCF values of approximately 2500 and 3500 for the DEHP and DIDP respectively. The mussels were then held in clean seawater for a further 14 days and ¹⁴C analysis showed a depuration half-life of approximately 3.5 days for both phthalates. During the whole 42 days of the experiment general observations on the health of the animals showed no evidence of any adverse effects.     

Environmental monitoring to enhance comprehension and control of infectious diseases

In a world of emerging and resurging infectious diseases, dominated by zoonoses, environmental monitoring plays a vital role in our understanding their dynamics and their spillover to humans. Here, we critically review the ecology, epidemiology and need for monitoring of a variety of directly transmitted (Sin Nombre virus, Avian Influenza) and vector-borne (Ross River virus, West Nile virus, Lyme disease, anaplasmosis and babesiosis) zoonoses. We focus on the valuable role that existing monitoring plays in the understanding of these zoonoses, the demands for new monitoring, and how improvements can be made to existing monitoring. We also identify the fruitful outcomes which would result from implementation of the monitoring demands we have highlighted. This review aims to promote improvements in our understanding of zoonoses, their management, and public health by encouraging discussion among researchers and public health officials.     

Numerical and behavioral effects within a pulse-driven system: consequences for shared prey

Some of the clearest examples of the ramifying effects of resource pulses exist in deciduous forests dominated by mast-producing trees, such as oaks, beech, and hornbeam. Seed production in these forests represents only the first of several pulsed events. Secondary pulses emerge as mast-consuming small rodents numerically respond to seed production and tertiary pulses emerge as generalist predators numerically respond to rodents. Raptors may also respond behaviorally (i.e., diet shifts) to subsequent crashes in small rodents following the crash phase in seed production. In oak-dominated forest in the Hudson Valley, New York, these various pulse and crash phases act synergistically, although not simultaneously, to influence thrush population dynamics through predation on nests, juveniles, and adults. As a consequence, factors limiting population growth rate and their age-specific action vary as a function of past acorn production. We highlight these interactions based on our eight-year study of thrush demography, acorn production, and small mammal abundance coupled with information on regional adult thrush population trends from the Breeding Bird Survey. We use these data sets to demonstrate the sequence of primary to tertiary pulses and how they influence breeding thrush populations. To extend our discussion beyond masting phenomena in the eastern United States, we briefly review the literature of alternative avian prey within pulsed systems to show (1) numerical and behavioral responses by generalist predators are ubiquitous in pulsed systems, and this contributes to (2) variability in reproduction and survivorship of avian prey linked to the underlying dynamics of the pulse. We conclude by exploring the broad consequences of cascading resource pulses for alternative prey based upon the indirect interaction of apparent competition among shared prey and the nature of temporal variability on populations.     

Spatial selection and inheritance: applying evolutionary concepts to population dynamics in heterogeneous space

Organisms in highly suitable sites generally produce more offspring, and offspring can inherit this suitability by not dispersing far. This combination of spatial selection and spatial inheritance acts to bias the distribution of organisms toward suitable sites and thereby increase mean fitness (i.e., per capita population increase). Thus, population growth rates in heterogeneous space change over time by a process conceptually analogous to evolution by natural selection, opening avenues for theoretical cross-pollination between evolutionary biology and ecology. We operationally define spatial inheritance and spatial selective differential and then combine these two factors in a modification of the breeder's equation, derived from simple models of population growth in heterogeneous space. The modified breeder's equation yields a conservative criterion for persistence in hostile environments estimable from field measurements. We apply this framework for understanding gypsy moth population persistence amidst abundant predators and find that the predictions of the modified breeder's equation match initial changes in population growth rate in independent simulation output. The analogy between spatial dynamics and natural selection conceptually links ecology and evolution, provides a spatially implicit framework for modeling spatial population dynamics, and represents an important null model for studying habitat selection.     

Multiple causes of variable tick burdens on small-mammal hosts

Blood meals by blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) on vertebrate hosts serve to transmit the agents of several zoonotic diseases, including Lyme disease, human babesiosis, and human granulocytic anaplasmosis, between host and tick. If ticks are aggregated on hosts, a small proportion of hosts may be responsible for most transmission events. Therefore, a key element in understanding and controlling the transmission of these pathogens is identifying the group(s) or individuals feeding a disproportionate number of ticks. Previous studies of tick burdens, however, have focused on differences in mean annual burdens between one or a few groups of hosts, ignoring both the strong seasonal dynamics of I. scapularis and their aggregation on hosts. We present a statistical modeling framework that predicts burdens on individual hosts throughout the year as a function of temporal-, site-, and individual-specific attributes, as well as the degree of aggregation in a negative binomial distribution. We then fit alternate versions of this model to an 11-year data set of I. scapularis burdens on white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) and eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus) to explore which factors are important to predicting tick burdens. We found that tick burdens are a complex function of many extrinsic and intrinsic factors, including seasonality. Specifically: (1) burdens on mice and chipmunks increased with densities of host-seeking ticks in a manner that suggests hosts become saturated. (2) Chipmunks draw larval ticks away from mice, which are efficient reservoirs of the Lyme disease bacterium, and mice draw nymphs away from chipmunks, which are key nymphal hosts. (3) While individual correlates were statistically important, the relationships were complex, and no group or correlate (sex, age, mass) could explain which hosts fed a disproportionate number of ticks. (4) Ticks were strongly aggregated on hosts within and across groups suggesting that some undiscovered quality of individual hosts was responsible for the aggregation. (5) Those individuals that fed more nymphs than expected, and are thus more likely to be infected with the Lyme disease agent, also tend to feed and infect more larvae than expected. Predicting which individuals those are is not yet possible.     

Cross-sectional biomonitoring study of pesticide exposures in Queensland,Australia, using pooled urine samples

A range of pesticides are available in Australia for use in agricultural and domestic settings to control pests, including organophosphate and pyrethroid insecticides, herbicides, and insect repellents, such as N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET). The aim of this study was to provide a cost-effective preliminary assessment of background exposure to a range of pesticides among a convenience sample of Australian residents. De-identified urine specimens stratified by age and sex were obtained from a community-based pathology laboratory and pooled (n = 24 pools of 100 specimens). Concentrations of urinary pesticide biomarkers were quantified using solid-phase extraction coupled with isotope dilution high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Geometric mean biomarker concentrations ranged from <0.1 to 36.8 ng/mL for organophosphate insecticides, <0.1 to 5.5 ng/mL for pyrethroid insecticides, and <0.1 to 8.51 ng/mL for all other biomarkers with the exception of the DEET metabolite 3-diethylcarbamoyl benzoic acid (4.23 to 850 ng/mL). We observed no association between age and concentration for most biomarkers measured but noted a “U-shaped” trend for five organophosphate metabolites, with the highest concentrations observed in the youngest and oldest age strata, perhaps related to age-specific differences in behavior or physiology. The fact that concentrations of specific and non-specific metabolites of the organophosphate insecticide chlorpyrifos were higher than reported in USA and Canada may relate to differences in registered applications among countries. Additional biomonitoring programs of the general population and focusing on vulnerable populations would improve the exposure assessment and the monitoring of temporal exposure trends as usage patterns of pesticide products in Australia change over time.