Predicting Fish Growth Potential and Identifying Water Quality Constraints: A Spatially-Explicit Bioenergetics Approach

Anthropogenic impairment of water bodies represents a global environmental concern, yet few attempts have successfully linked fish performance to thermal habitat suitability and fewer have distinguished co-varying water quality constraints. We interfaced fish bioenergetics, field measurements, and Thermal Remote Imaging to generate a spatially-explicit, high-resolution surface of fish growth potential, and next employed a structured hypothesis to detect relationships among measures of fish performance and co-varying water quality constraints. Our thermal surface of fish performance captured the amount and spatial-temporal arrangement of thermally-suitable habitat for three focal species in an extremely heterogeneous reservoir, but interpretation of this pattern was initially confounded by seasonal covariation of water residence time and water quality. Subsequent path analysis revealed that in terms of seasonal patterns in growth potential, catfish and walleye responded to temperature, positively and negatively, respectively; crappie and walleye responded to eutrophy (negatively). At the high eutrophy levels observed in this system, some desired fishes appear to suffer from excessive cultural eutrophication within the context of elevated temperatures whereas others appear to be largely unaffected or even enhanced. Our overall findings do not lead to the conclusion that this system is degraded by pollution; however, they do highlight the need to use a sensitive focal species in the process of determining allowable nutrient loading and as integrators of habitat suitability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We provide an integrated approach useful for quantifying fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints on fish performance at spatial scales appropriate for whole-system management.     

An occupancy‐based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so‐called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889–2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post‐development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34‐61) and 15% (95% CI 6‐33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001?2011), top performing (based on AIC_c) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.     

Closing the Incentive Gap: The Role of Public and Private Actors in Governing Indonesia's Tuna Fisheries

Indonesia is one of the world's largest tuna producing countries, yet regulatory oversight remains weak and management is poor. Incentive-based approaches are a way to improve state-based resource management, but they often require strong government regulation. In this paper, we use principal–agent theory and the notion of the ‘incentive gap’ to explore how incentives could be brought to bear in Indonesia through a combination of private and public actors. With a shared fish stock like tuna, we argue that a double principal–agent problem emerges, where information, asymmetries between various players complicate management. We focus on the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard in three different tuna fisheries in Indonesia to identify the nature of the incentive gap, and comment on the mix of public and private actors currently engaged in tuna fishery governance towards reducing the gap. The double principal–agent problem is a useful yet underutilized framework to understand the dynamics of shared stocks management. In this first application to a developing country fishery, we conclude that information asymmetries cannot be overcome without the involvement of private actors, who are increasingly becoming important in aligning regional and global objectives with those of fishers themselves.     

Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change

Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species’ impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout (Salmo trutta), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.     

Relationships between exposure to polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorine pesticides and the risk for developing type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and a meta-analysis of exposures to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD)

A systematic review was performed to evaluate the association between environmental exposures to polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (PHAHs) and organochlorine (OC) pesticides and the risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Searches of EMbase, Google Scholar, Medline, and Scopus were performed. Reports were included if they were original human studies whose design included a control group and if the sample size was larger than 10 participants per group. The articles were excluded if the type of diabetes was unknown or Type 1. Odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CI), and modified Naranjo scores for the effects of environmental contaminants were determined for each study. Of the 35 eligible studies, six were included in the meta-analysis; these focused specifically on 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). Meta-analysis of these studies showed no significant increased OR for the development of T2D from exposure to TCDD. However, subgroup analysis showed significant elevated OR for the development of T2D if exposure is repeated and accompanied by exposure to other persistent pesticides (OR?=?1.48; 1.10–1.90) but a decreased odds for T2D with exposure resulting from accidental exposure (OR?=?0.46; 0.39–0.52). Our results suggest that there are significant risks of developing T2D in populations with recurring exposures to TCDD in concert with other persistent chlorinated pesticides. A mean Naranjo score of 2.0 was determined for all 35 articles; this score was 2.5 when examining only TCDD studies and 2.1 when examining studies that looked only at T2D. Each of these Naranjo scores suggests a possible association between the prevalence of T2D and exposure to PHAHs or OC pesticides.     

The cost of floods in developing countries’ megacities: a hedonic price analysis of the Jakarta housing market,Indonesia

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - Although many megacities in developing countries experience floods annually that affect a large number of people, relatively few empirical studies have...     

Assessing the likely effectiveness of multispecies management for imperiled desert fishes with niche overlap analysis

A critical decision in species conservation is whether to target individual species or a complex of ecologically similar species. Management of multispecies complexes is likely to be most effective when species share similar distributions, threats, and response to threats. We used niche overlap analysis to assess ecological similarity of 3 sensitive desert fish species currently managed as an ecological complex. We measured the amount of shared distribution of multiple habitat and life history parameters between each pair of species. Habitat use and multiple life history parameters, including maximum body length, spawning temperature, and longevity, differed significantly among the 3 species. The differences in habitat use and life history parameters among the species suggest they are likely to respond differently to similar threats and that most management actions will not benefit all 3 species equally. Habitat restoration, frequency of stream dewatering, non‐native species control, and management efforts in tributaries versus main stem rivers are all likely to impact each of the species differently. Our results demonstrate that niche overlap analysis provides a powerful tool for assessing the likely effectiveness of multispecies versus single‐species conservation plans. Evaluación de la Posible Efectividad del Manejo Multi‐Especie paraPeces de Desierto en Peligro Mediante el Análisis de Traslape de Nichos