Tree recruitment in an empty forest

To assess how the decimation of large vertebrates by hunting alters recruitment processes in a tropical forest, we compared the sapling cohorts of two structurally and compositionally similar forests in the Rio Manu floodplain in southeastern Peru. Large vertebrates were severely depleted at one site, Boca Manu (BM), whereas the other, Cocha Cashu Biological Station (CC), supported an intact fauna. At both sites we sampled small (> or =1 m tall, <1 cm dbh) and large (> or =1 cm and <10 cm dbh) saplings in the central portion of 4-ha plots within which all trees > or =10 cm dbh were mapped and identified. This design ensured that all conspecific adults within at least 50 m (BM) or 55 m (CC) of any sapling would have known locations. We used the Janzen-Connell model to make five predictions about the sapling cohorts at BM with respect to CC: (1) reduced overall sapling recruitment, (2) increased recruitment of species dispersed by abiotic means, (3) altered relative abundances of species, (4) prominence of large-seeded species among those showing depressed recruitment, and (5) little or no tendency for saplings to cluster closer to adults at BM. Our results affirmed each of these predictions. Interpreted at face value, the evidence suggests that few species are demographically stable at BM and that up to 28% are increasing and 72% decreasing. Loss of dispersal function allows species dispersed abiotically and by small birds and mammals to substitute for those dispersed by large birds and mammals. Although we regard these conclusions as preliminary, over the long run, the observed type of directional change in tree composition is likely to result in biodiversity loss and negative feedbacks on both the animal and plant communities. Our results suggest that the best, and perhaps only, way to prevent compositional change and probable loss of diversity in tropical tree communities is to prohibit hunting.     

Ecological literacy and psychographics: lifestyle contributors to ecological knowledge and understanding

Knowledge and understanding about how the ecological systems of the Earth support life form the foundation for ecological literacy, which, in turn, is of critical importance for sustainability. There is widespread concern that levels of ecological literacy within many contemporary human societies are too low to enable effective decision-making about how to live sustainably. This paper presents and discusses the findings of an ecological literacy assessment of South Australian adults. The assessment tested for knowledge and understanding of ecological systems and interconnections with human society. Analyses revealed significant relationships between assessment scores and a range of value-based and behavioural characteristics. Such characteristics included the value placed on nature, time spent outdoors and in nature, involvement in nature-based activities, and perceived sources of ecological knowledge and understanding. Higher average scores were correlated with higher values accorded to involvement in outdoor activities, importance of the outdoors to enjoyment of life, importance of nature in the household, volunteer environmental activity and growing food. Higher scores were also correlated with higher education, research activities, outdoor lifestyles, place-based experiences, volunteer activities, mentors and colleagues, and books and magazines. Lower scores were achieved by those who considered media, natural disasters and environmental marketing to be major contributors to their ecological knowledge. These findings contribute to a broader study of the relationships between ecological literacy and a range of both socio-demographic and psychographic characteristics. They invite serious consideration from any society that values the participation of an informed population with the capacity to make sustainable environmental decisions.     

Photographic mark-recapture analysis of clustered mammal-eating killer whales around the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska

We used photographic mark-recapture methods to estimate the number of mammal-eating “transient” killer whales using the coastal waters from the central Gulf of Alaska to the central Aleutian Islands, around breeding rookeries of endangered Steller sea lions. We identified 154 individual killer whales from 6,489 photographs collected between July 2001 and August 2003. A Bayesian mixture model estimated seven distinct clusters (95% probability interval = 7–10) of individuals that were differentially covered by 14 boat-based surveys exhibiting varying degrees of association in space and time. Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to sample identification probabilities across the distribution of clusters to estimate a total of 345 identified and undetected whales (95% probability interval = 255–487). Estimates of covariance between surveys, in terms of their coverage of these clusters, indicated spatial population structure and seasonal movements from these near-shore waters, suggesting spatial and temporal variation in the predation pressure on coastal marine mammals.     

100-years of Australian bushfire property losses: Is the risk significant and is it increasing?

This study examines the bushfire (wildland fire) risk to the built environment in Australia. The most salient result is that the annual probability of building destruction has remained almost constant over the last century despite large demographic and social changes as well as improvements in fire fighting technique and resources. Most historical losses have taken place in a few extreme fires which if repeated are likely to overwhelm even the most professional of fire services. We also calculate the average annual probability of a random home on the urban–bushland interface being destroyed by a bushfire to be of the order of 1 in 6500, a factor 6.5 times lower than the ignition probability of a structural house fire. Thus on average and if this risk was perceived rationally, the incentive for individual homeowners to mitigate and reduce the bushfire danger even further is low. This being the case and despite predictions of an increasing likelihood of conditions favouring bushfires under global climate change, we suspect that building losses due to bushfires are unlikely to alter materially in the near future.     

Characteristics associated with high and low levels of ecological literacy in a western society

The integrity of the relationship between humanity and nature is fundamental to the health and survival of our species. Humans have always required knowledge and understanding of the planet’s life-supporting systems. Such knowledge and understanding form the basis of ecological literacy which, we suggest, is fundamental to the sustainability of human settlements. An assessment of South Australian adults showed positive correlations between ecological literacy and a number of socio-demographic and psychographic factors. An analysis of the most and least eco-literate individuals within a sample of over 1000 adults revealed significant distinguishing characteristics. Our findings indicate that high ecological literacy is strongly correlated with gender, age, education (and in particular, science-based education), employment status, engagement with nature both as children and adults, growing food, outdoor experiences and lifestyles, growing up in small communities and relational learning. In contrast, low ecological literacy is associated with a different set of socio-demographic and psychographic characteristics such as lower levels of education, growing up in large urban communities, and spending little time outdoors or in natural settings. In addition, perceptions about the major contributors to ecological knowledge and understanding were markedly different within the two groups. These patterns of difference between those with high and low ecological literacy among South Australian adults invite serious consideration for a society that aspires to cultivate an informed citizenry with capacity for making effective environmental decisions.     

Ecological literacy and socio-demographics: who are the most eco-literate in our community,and why?

Ecological literacy is founded upon knowledge and understanding about how the ecological systems of the Earth function and support life. A widespread concern that levels of ecological literacy within many contemporary human communities are inadequate to enable effective decision-making about sustainable ways of living led to a rigorous and carefully designed assessment of over 1000 South Australian adults from diverse sectors including industry, government, nongovernment, business and community organisations. This assessment tested for local and global knowledge, including an understanding of the interconnection of natural systems with human society. Quantitative analyses revealed significant relationships between scores and a range of socio-demographic characteristics. Scores varied significantly with gender, age, education, employment, place of growing up and time spent in South Australia (SA). Highest average scores were found in males, middle-age groups, the most highly educated, those with science-related educational backgrounds, those working in environment-related fields, those who grew up in small town environments rather than in large towns or cities and in those who had spent more than 10 years in SA. These findings contribute to a broader study of factors associated with ecologically literate individuals and groups within the western and industrialised adult community of SA. They form a valuable foundation on which to build efforts to further understand and develop ecological literacy within our citizenry and governing bodies.