Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides in soils from the East Antarctic coast

Concentrations of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), alpha-, beta- and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, 6 o,p'-and p,p'-isomers of DDT and 28 PCB congeners have been measured in eleven soil samples and one lichen collected on the Eastern coast of Antarctica from 5 Russian stations. For samples with low concentrations of PCBs (range 0.20-0.41 ng g(-1) dry weight) and pesticides (0.86-4.69 ng g(-1) and 0.11-1.22 ng g(-1) dry weight for HCHs and DDTs, respectively), atmospheric long-range transport from Africa, South America or Australia was suggested as the sole source of contamination. The profile of PCB congeners was dominated by the more volatile tri-, tetra- and penta-PCBs congeners, thus supporting long-range transport hypothesis. Four samples contained moderate levels of PCBs (range 1.98-6.94 ng g(-1) dry weight) and variable concentrations of pesticides (gamma-HCH, p,p'-DDT and o,p'-DDT being the main contaminants). For samples with high concentrations of PCBs (range 90.26-157.45 ng g(-1)) and high concentrations of pesticides, the presence of high molecular weight PCB congeners such as: 153, 180, 187, 170 etc, strongly suggest a local source (biotic) of PCBs rather than atmospheric transport. It is likely that on a local scale, biotic focussing of pollutants, due to bird activities (nesting and excrement) can cause high contamination levels and become more significant than contaminant input via abiotic pathways.     

Time dependent influx and efflux of phenol by immobilized microbial consortium

Phenol, like many other organic solvents, is toxic to micro-organisms even at low concentrations. However, some micro-organisms can withstand this toxicity to a certain concentration. To observe the uptake mechanism of phenol, bacteria were isolatedfrom a petroleum refinery effluent and identified. Study was carried out to understand the effect of varying sub-lethal concentrations of phenol, on all the isolated individual bacterial cultures. Out of the bacteria isolated, Serratia liquefaciens was found to tolerate phenol concentration up to 1500 mg l^-1. A microbial consortium of the isolated bacteriawas formulated and immobilized. Individual cultures were also immobilized and uptake of phenol by the immobilized micro-organisms was observed in a nutrient-rich and nutrient-stressed medium containing phenol as a sole source of carbon. A time-dependent uptake of phenol was exhibited by the micro-organismsin nutrient-stressed medium, after which a sudden increase in phenol concentration occurred in the extracellular medium, till it reached back to the initial concentration. This was attributedto an active efflux mechanism adopted by the micro-organisms to withstand the toxic shock.     

A 1 and 6 month follow-up of prenatal diagnosis patients who lost pregnancies

This paper reports results of an exploratory study of prenatal diagnosis patients who experienced voluntary terminations of pregnancy following the detection of an abnormality or spontaneous miscarriages. The 121 participants were part of the national collaborative Chorionic Villus Sampling and Amniocentesis Study. They completed semi-structured telephone interviews and mailed questionnaires at 1 month and 6 months after the pregnancy losses. Scores on the Profile of Mood States showed that mood levels improved significantly over time. However, there were some declines in loss-related support from partners and others. The persisting distress and difficulties of a minority highlight the variability in women's responses to pregnancy losses. Women who lost pregnancies later in gestation, showed the greatest mood disturbances at initial assessments, used professional mental health assistance after the loss, or reported less satisfactory loss-related support from significant others showed the greatest levels of mood disturbance at the six-month assessment. Follow-up contacts with patients who lose pregnancies should be used to inform women about the variation in possible grief reactions, to assess the extent of support the women are receiving from their partners and significant others, and to provide additional follow-up or referral of those experiencing the greatest distress.     

Fetal translocation between chromosomes 2, 18, and 21 resolved by fish

An apparently balanced t(2q;21q) translocation was discovered in fetal blood and amniocytes of a 22-week fetus, monitored because of ultrasonographic evidence of a heart disease. FISH (fluorescence in situ hybridization) analysis disclosed a complex translocation between chromosomes 2q, 18q, and 21q, which was inherited from the healthy mother. This observation corroborates the usefulness of molecular cytogenetic techniques in raising the quality of prenatal diagnosis and detecting subtle rearrangements not resolved by standard cytogenetics.     

Spatial variability of soil phosphorus in relation to the topographic index and critical source areas: sampling for assessing risk to water quality

A measure of soil P status in agricultural soils is generally required for assisting with prediction of potential P loss from agricultural catchments and assessing risk for water quality. The objectives of this paper are twofold: (i) investigating the soil P status, distribution, and variability, both spatially and with soil depth, of two different first-order catchments; and (ii) determining variation in soil P concentration in relation to catchment topography (quantified as the "topographic index") and critical source areas (CSAs). The soil P measurements showed large spatial variability, not only between fields and land uses, but also within individual fields and in part was thought to be strongly influenced by areas where cattle tended to congregate and areas where manure was most commonly spread. Topographic index alone was not related to the distribution of soil P, and does not seem to provide an adequate indicator for CSAs in the study catchments. However, CSAs may be used in conjunction with soil P data for help in determining a more "effective" catchment soil P status. The difficulties in defining CSAs a priori, particularly for modeling and prediction purposes, however, suggest that other more "integrated" measures of catchment soil P status, such as baseflow P concentrations or streambed sediment P concentrations, might be more useful. Since observed soil P distribution is variable and is also difficult to relate to nationally available soil P data, any assessment of soil P status for determining risk of P loss is uncertain and problematic, given other catchment physicochemical characteristics and the sampling strategy employed.     

Recycling polymeric waste from electronic and automotive sectors into value added products

The environmentally sustainable disposal and recycling of ever increasing volumes of electronic waste has become a global waste management issue. The addition of up to 25% polymeric waste PCBs (printed circuit boards) as fillers in polypropylene (PP) composites was partially successful: while the tensile modulus, flexural strength and flexural modulus of composites were enhanced, the tensile and impact strengths were found to decrease. As a lowering of impact strength can significantly limit the application of PP based composites, it is necessary to incorporate impact modifying polymers such as rubbery particles in the mix. We report on a novel investigation on the simultaneous utilization of electronic and automotive rubber waste as fillers in PP composites. These composites were prepared by using 25 wt.% polymeric PCB powder, up to 9% of ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), and PP: balance. The influence of EPR on the structural, thermal, mechanical and rheological properties of PP/PCB/ EPR composites was investigated. While the addition of EPR caused the nucleation of the β crystalline phase of PP, the onset temperature for thermal degradation was found to decrease by 8%. The tensile modulus and strength decreased by 16% and 19%, respectively; and the elongation at break increased by ~71%. The impact strength showed a maximum increase of ~18% at 7 wt.%–9 wt.% EPR content. Various rheological properties were found to be well within the range of processing limits. This novel eco-friendly approach could help utilize significant amounts of polymeric electronic and automotive waste for fabricating valuable polymer composites.

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Testing and Improving Temperature Thresholds for Snow and Rain Prediction in the Western United States

The phase of precipitation at the land surface is critical to determine the timing and amount of water available for hydrological and ecological systems. However, there are few techniques to directly observe the precipitation phase and many prediction tools apply a single temperature threshold (e.g., 0°C) to determine phase. In this paper, we asked two questions: (1) what is the accuracy of default and station optimized daily temperature thresholds for predicting precipitation phase and (2) what are the regions and conditions in which typical temperature‐based precipitation phase predictions are most suited. We developed a ground truth dataset of rain vs. snow using an expert decision‐making system based on precipitation, snow depth, and snow water equivalent observations. This dataset was used to evaluate the accuracy of three temperature‐threshold‐based techniques of phase classification. Optimizing the temperature threshold improved the prediction of precipitation phase by 34% compared to using 0°C threshold. Developing a temperature threshold based on station elevation improved the error by 12% compared with using the 0°C temperature threshold. We also found the probability of snow as a function of temperature differed among ecoregions, which suggests a varied response to future climate change. These results highlight a current weakness in our ability to predict the effects of regional warming that could have uneven impacts on water and ecological resources.