Demographic stochasticity reduces the synchronizing effect of dispersal in predator-prey metapopulations

Dispersal may affect predator-prey metapopulations by rescuing local sink populations from extinction or by synchronizing population dynamics across the metapopulation, increasing the risk of regional extinction. Dispersal is likely influenced by demographic stochasticity, however, particularly because dispersal rates are often very low in metapopulations. Yet the effects of demographic stochasticity on predator-prey metapopulations are not well known. To that end, I constructed three models of a two-patch predator-prey system. The models constitute a hierarchy of complexity, allowing direct comparisons. Two models included demographic stochasticity (pure jump process [PJP] and stochastic differential equations [SDE]), and the third was deterministic (ordinary differential equations [ODE]). One stochastic model (PJP) treated population sizes as discrete, while the other (SDE) allowed population sizes to change continuously. Both stochastic models only produced synchronized predator-prey dynamics when dispersal was high for both trophic levels. Frequent dispersal by only predators or prey in the PJP and SDE spatially decoupled the trophic interaction, reducing synchrony of the non-dispersive species. Conversely, the ODE generated synchronized predator-prey dynamics across all dispersal rates, except when initial conditions produced anti-phase transients. These results indicate that demographic stochasticity strongly reduces the synchronizing effect of dispersal, which is ironic because demographic stochasticity is often invoked post hoc as a driver of extinctions in synchronized metapopulations.     

Environmental damage — Environmental expenditure 1: Statistical evidence on the Federal Republic of Germany

Summary The conventional economic accounting systems have not played an enlightening role in statistically revealing the actual damage to the environment. They can, however, be methodologically improved; and they must be complemented by assessments of the ecological costs of the production process.In this article statistical evidence is provided on the level and structure of environmental damage and protection expenditures in the Federal Republic of Germany,i.e. on the environmental damage itself and on the environmental protection investments by industry and government, the capital stock for environmental protection, the total costs of and expenditures for environmental protection.Dr Christian Leipert and Prof. Udo Simonis are both regular contributors toThe Environmentalist (see 1989, pp.171–183; 1990, pp.25–38). Prof. Simonis is Director of the International Institute for Environment and Society (Wissenschaftszentrum) and Dr Leipert a member of its research staff.