Modeling post-fledging survival of Lark Buntings in response to ecological and biological factors

We evaluated the influences of several ecological, biological, and methodological factors on post-fledging survival of a shortgrass prairie bird, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys). We estimated daily post-fledging survival (n = 206, 82 broods) using radiotelemetry and color bands to track fledglings. Daily survival probabilities were best explained by drought intensity, time in season (quadratic trend), ages < or = 3 d post-fledging, and rank given drought intensity. Drought intensity had a strong negative effect on survival. Rank was an important predictor of fledgling survival only during the severe drought of 2002 when the smallest fledglings had lower survival. Recently fledged young (ages < or = 3 d post-fledging) undergoing the transition from nest to surrounding habitat experienced markedly lower survival, demonstrating the vulnerable nature of this time period. Survival was greater in mid and late season than early season, corresponding to our assumptions of food availability. Neither mark type nor sex of attending parent influenced survival. The model-averaged product of the 22-d survival calculated using mean rank and median value of time in season was 0.360 +/- 0.08 in 2001 and 0.276 +/- 0.08 in 2002. Survival estimates that account for age, condition of young, ecological conditions, and other factors are important for parameterization of realistic population models. Biologists using population growth models to elucidate mechanisms of population declines should attempt to estimate species-specific of post-fledging survival rather than use generalized estimates.     

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change

The influence of recent climate change on the world's biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation; yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 3 degrees C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.     

Giving a Voice to Posterity – Deliberative Democracy and Representation of Future People

The aim of this paper is to consider whether some seats in a democratically elected legislative assembly ought to be reserved for representatives of future generations. In order to examine this question, I will propose a new democratic model for representing posterity. It is argued that this model has several advantages compared with a model for the democratic representation of future people previously suggested by Andrew Dobson. Nevertheless, the democratic model that I propose confronts at least two difficult problems. First, it faces insoluble problems of representative legitimacy. Second, one might question whether this model provides a reasonably effective way to represent future interests compared with existing representative democratic institutions. Despite such problems, it is argued that political representation of posterity can be defended on the basis of fundamental ideas and ideals in recent theory of deliberative democracy. The first reason for this is that in a number of cases democratic decisions cannot be regarded as normatively legitimate from the point of view of deliberative democracy, unless posterity is given a voice. The second reason is that representation of posterity can contribute to more rational and impartial deliberations and decisions in legislative assemblies.     

Green supply chain management in the chemical industry: structural framework of drivers

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of Green Supply Chain Management (GSCM) is to improve the quality of supply chain management strategies and environmental performance. As per current statistics, the chemical industry is growing fast in Bangladesh. In order to compete for global competition, GSCM is essential in this sector. This paper proposes a systematic approach of structural framework whose aim is to enhance the probability of constructive implementation of GSCM in the field chemical industry in Bangladesh. Therefore, this framework evaluates the appropriate interrelationship along with the drivers of GSCM in the chemical industry. In total, eight drivers were finalized from an associated literature review with the help of survey and by taking expert opinions via the Delphi methodology. In addition to MICMAC analysis, the driving and the dependence powers for all the drivers were determined. Moreover, the structural frameworks for the drivers were developed by means of total interpretive structural modeling (TISM) technique. As a result, the findings indicate that the most significant driver was supplier pressure and willingness and the most important barrier was high cost. Finally, the main objective of this research is expected to help industrial managers to evaluate and understand the critical areas where they should emphasize to implement GSCM in the chemical industry.     

Toward Conservation of Midcontinental Shorebird Migrations

Shorebirds represent a highly diverse group of species, many of which experience tremendous energy demands associated with long-distance migratory flights. Transcontinental migrants are dependent upon dynamic freshwater wetlands for stopover resources essential for replenishment of lipid reserves and completion of migration. Patterns of shorebird migration across midcontinental wetlands were detected from migration reports to American Birds and information provided by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service national wildlife refuges. Patterns in species composition and abundance varied geographically, emphasizing the uniqueness of different regions to migrating shorebirds. Smaller species and neotropical migrants moved primarily across the Great Plains, whereas larger species and North American migrants predominated in assemblages in the intermountain west Shorebirds were broadly dispersed in wetland habitats with dynamic water regimes. Whereas populations of shorebirds in coastal systems appear to concentrate at sites of seasonally predictable and abundant food resources, we propose that transcontinental shorebirds disperse and use wetlands opportunistically. This migration system exemplifies the need for large-scale, coordinated regional management efforts that recognize the dynamic nature of ecosystem processes.