Conjoint analysis for environmental evaluation

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Conjoint analysis and the related choice-modelling methods have been used for many years in marketing research to evaluate consumer behaviour and preferences for different kinds of product attributes. Recently, the number of applications in environmental science and management has started to grow. Conjoint analysis is found in many different forms, and the environmental studies evaluated in this review display the same range of methods as in other fields. The key characteristic of all these methods is that trade-offs are evaluated by jointly considering a number of important attributes. MAIN FEATURES: This paper is a review of the literature on environmental applications of conjoint analysis and assesses in which environmental area conjoint analysis has been most successful. The method and the design of the studies are reviewed as well. RESULTS: A total of 84 studies were found, dealing with environmental issues that were evaluated by conjoint analysis. The studies concern agriculture, ecosystem management, energy, environmental evaluation, forestry, land management, pollution, products, recreation, environmental risk analysis and waste management. DISCUSSION: Choice experiments seem to have a comparatively stronger position in environmental studies than elsewhere. Most of the environmental applications are related to natural resource management. This is somewhat surprising, but a number of reports have appeared also on product evaluation, which could be a key application area in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to marketing and transportation, the number of environmental conjoint studies is rather small but increasing, and the method has proven to work effectively in eliciting preferences on environmental issues. In environmental issues, experimenters often use choice experiments, especially concerning ecosystem management and environmental evaluations. When it comes to evaluating preferences concerning agriculture, forestry, energy and products, a more traditional approach of conjoint analysis is favoured. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Two new areas of application are identified in this review--environmental communication and expert elicitation. Conjoint analysis can thus be developed into a useful instrument for environmental risk analysis and communication, both of which are necessary for an efficient approach to risk governance.     

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.     

Accurate sampling of PCDD/F in high temperature flue-gas using cooled sampling probes

In a laboratory-scale combustion reactor, flue-gas samples were collected at two temperatures in the post-combustion zone, 700 °C and 400 °C, using two different water-cooled sampling probes. The probes were the cooled probe described in the European Standard method EN-1948:1, referred to as the original probe, and a modified probe that contained a salt/ice mixture to assist the cooling, referred to as the sub-zero probe. To determine the efficiency of the cooling probes, internal temperature measurements were recorded at 5 cm intervals inside the probes. Flue-gas samples were analyzed for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs). Samples collected at 700 °C using the original cooling probe showed higher concentrations of PCDD/Fs compared to samples collected using the sub-zero probe. No significant differences were observed between samples collected at 400 °C. The results indicated that artifact formation of PCDD/Fs readily occurs during flue-gas sampling at high temperatures if the cooling within the probe is insufficient, as found for the original probe at 700 °C. It was also shown that this problem could be alleviated by using probes with an enhanced cooling capacity, such as the sub-zero probe.Although this may not affect samples collected for regulatory purposes in exit gases, it is of great importance for research conducted in the high-temperature region of the post-combustion zone.     

Characterisation and fingerprinting of PCBs in flue gas and ash from waste incineration and in technical mixtures

Congener patterns of mono- to deca-chlorinated biphenyls (PC1-10B) were evaluated in (a) waste incineration flue gases collected in the post-combustion zone of a laboratory-scale fluidized-bed reactor, (b) ashes from two different MSW incineration plants, and (c) published data of eight Aroclor formulations. The congener patterns of the flue gases, ashes, and Aroclor mixtures clearly differed from each other, likely reflecting differences in formation pathways. The flue gas congener patterns were largely dominated by the least chlorinated congeners, whereas the ashes displayed more evenly distributed patterns. The most abundant congeners indicated a preference for 3,3',4,4'-oriented substitution, which may be related to de novo-type formation involving perylene. Principal component analysis confirmed that congener patterns differed among the three matrices and also distinguished flue gases collected at 200 °C from those collected at 300 °C and 450 °C. This distinction could be partly explained by the degree of chlorination, although the substitution status of the ortho-position, and substitution in the 3,3',4,4'-positions also seemed to be influential. Injecting biphenyl into the post-combustion zone of the reactor did not alter the patterns, indicating that availability of the backbone structure is not a limiting factor for PCB formation.     

Is the first-trimester combined screening result associated with the phenotype of Down syndrome? A population-based cohort study

Objective

To investigate if the Down syndrome phenotype differs according to the result of first-trimester combined screening (FTS).

Method

We included all Down syndrome cases diagnosed by karyotype in pregnancy or after birth in Denmark during 2005–2018. We compared screen positive (odds ≥1:300) and screen negative (odds <1:300) cases as well as screen result subgroups with respect to anthropometrics, congenital malformations, childhood diseases, and hospitalization.

Results

Absolute measures of fetal and birth anthropometrics were comparable between groups. A prenatal malformation diagnosis was more prevalent among screen positive than screen negative cases. Analyses suggested that this could reflect a detection bias. Cases with a screen result of 1:2–1:10 had a higher probability of being diagnosed with a malformation prenatally and with severe congenital heart disease (CHD) postnatally compared with a result of 1:11–1:300. Screen positive cases more often had non-severe CHD but less often a non-heart malformation compared with screen negative cases, while proportions of severe CHD were similar in these groups. Data on hospitalizations showed inconsistent results.

Conclusion

The 1:300 screening threshold had limited or no value in predicting Down syndrome phenotype severity. In contrast, cases with a screen result between 1:2 and 1:10 may represent a more severe phenotype.     

Atmospheric deposition, retention, and stream export of dioxins and PCBs in a pristine boreal catchment

The mass-balance between diffuse atmospheric deposition of organic pollutants, amount of pollutants retained by the terrestrial environment, and levels of pollutants released to surface stream waters was studied in a pristine northern boreal catchment. This was done by comparing the input of atmospheric deposition of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) and PCBs with the amounts exported to surface waters. Two types of deposition samplers were used, equipped with a glass fibre thimble and an Amberlite sampler respectively. The measured fluxes showed clear seasonality, with most of the input and export occurring during winter and spring flood, respectively. The mass balance calculations indicates that the boreal landscape is an effective sink for PCDD/Fs and PCBs, as 96.0-99.9 % of received bulk deposition was retained, suggesting that organic pollutants will continue to impact stream water in the region for an extended period of time.     

Effects of regional differences in waste composition on the thermal formation of polychlorinated aromatics during incineration

Two artificial wastes (A and B) whose contents reflect regional differences in municipal solid waste composition, were used to investigate the thermal formation of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs), biphenyls (PCBs), and naphthalenes (PCNs) during incineration. Flue gas samples were simultaneously collected at three ports in the post-combustion zone corresponding to flue gas temperatures of 400, 300, and 200 °C. The combustion of Waste B, which had a higher chlorine and metal content than Waste A, produced greater levels of highly-chlorinated homologues, as demonstrated by a higher degree of chlorination. The total concentrations of PCDDs, PCDFs, PCBs, and PCNs formed in the combustion of both wastes increased as temperature decreased along the convector. There were no significant differences in total concentrations between Waste A and Waste B combustion at specific temperatures, with exception of PCDFs at 400 °C. Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA) modeling, used to evaluate the data for all compound groups, suggest that during flue gas quenching at temperatures of 400 °C low-chlorinated homologues are preferentially formed in the presence of copper, which is known to be a very active catalyst for this process. At 300 and 200 °C, the formation of highly-chlorinated homologues is favored.