Performance of IUCN proxies for generation length

One of the criteria used by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to assess threat status is the rate of decline in abundance over 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer. The traditional method for calculating generation length (T) uses age‐specific survival and fecundity, but these data are rarely available. Consequently, proxies that require less information are often used, which introduces potential biases. The IUCN recommends 2 proxies based on adult mortality rate, = α + 1/d, and reproductive life span, = α + z^*RL, where α is age at first reproduction, d is adult mortality rate, RL is reproductive life span, and z is a coefficient derived from data for comparable species. We used published life tables for 78 animal and plant populations to evaluate precision and bias of these proxies by comparing and with true generation length. Mean error rates in estimating T were 31% for and 20% for , but error rates for were 16% when we subtracted 1 year ( ), as suggested by theory; also provided largely unbiased estimates regardless of the true generation length. Performance of depends on compilation of detailed data for comparable species, but our results suggest taxonomy is not a reliable indicator of comparability. All 3 proxies depend heavily on a reliable estimate of age at first reproduction, as we illustrated with 2 test species. The relatively large mean errors for all proxies emphasized the importance of collecting the detailed life‐history information necessary to calculate true generation length. Unfortunately, publication of such data is less common than it was decades ago. We identified generic patterns of age‐specific change in vital rates that can be used to predict expected patterns of bias from applying .     

Modeling urban solar energy with high spatiotemporal resolution: A case study in Toronto,Canada

This research presents a method to determine the maximum potential for the capturing of solar radiation on the rooftop of buildings in an urban environment. This involves the modeling of solar energy potential and comparison to historical building energy demand profiles through the use of 3-D solar simulation software tools and geographic information systems (GIS). The objective is to accurately identify the amount of surface area that is suitable for solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and to estimate the hourly PV electricity generation potential of existing building rooftops in an urban environment. This study demonstrates a viable approach for modeling urban solar energy and offers valuable information for electricity distributors, policy makers, and urban energy planners to facilitate the substantial design of a green built environment. The developed methodology is comprised of three main sections: (1) determination of suitable rooftop area, (2) determination of the amount of incident solar radiation available per rooftop, and (3) estimation of hourly solar PV electricity generation potential. A case study was performed using this method for Ryerson University, located in Toronto, Canada. It was found that solar PV could supply up to 19% of the study area’s electricity demands during peak consumption hours. The potential benefits of solar PV was also estimated based upon hourly greenhouse gas emission intensity factors as well as Time-of-Use (TOU) savings through the Ontario Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) program, which allows for better representation of the positive impacts of solar technologies.     

Natural gas engine driven heat pump system – a case study of an office building

ABSTRACT

An eQUEST model was developed to conduct a simulation study of a natural gas engine-driven heat pump (GEHP) for an office building in Woodstock, Ontario, Canada. Prior to the installation of the GEHP, the heating and cooling demands of the office building were provided by rooftop units (RTUs), comprising of natural gas heater and electric air conditioner. Energy consumption for both GEHP and RTUs were monitored for operation in alternating months. These recorded energy consumptions along with weather data were used in the regression analysis. The developed eQUEST models were validated and calibrated with the regression analysis results with respect to the ASHRAE Guideline 14–2014. The eventual models were then applied to investigate the potential annual energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and energy cost savings achieved by using the GEHP in Woodstock, and other cities in Canada, particularly in Ontario.     

Reinventing Environmental Regulation from the Grassroots Up: Explaining and Expanding the Success of the Toxics Release Inventory

/ The success of the Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) stands in stark contrast to most other environmental regulations in the United States. Between its inception in 1988 and 1995, releases of chemicals listed on the TRI have declined by 45%. We argue the TRI has achieved this regulatory success by creating a mechanism of "populist maxi-min regulation." This style of regulation differs from traditional command-and-control in several ways. First, the majorrole of public agencies is not to set and enforce standards, but to establish an information-rich context for private citizens, interest groups, and firms to solve environmental problems. Second, environmental "standards" are not determined by expert analysis of acceptable risk, but are effectively set at the levels informed citizens will accept. Third, firms adopt pollution prevention and abatement measures in response to a dynamic range of public pressures rather than to formalized agency standards or governmental sanction. Finally, public pressure ruthlessly focuses on the worst polluters-maximum attention to minimum performers-to induce them to adopt more effective environmental practices. TRI has inadvertently set in motion this alternative style of regulation that has, in turn, dramatically reduced toxics emissions in the United States. By properly understanding the mechanisms that drive TRI's accomplishments, more intentional public policy designs can expand the system of populist maxi-min regulation and achieve even more rapid toxics reduction.     

Communication ecology of webbing clothes moth: 4. Identification of male- and female-produced pheromones

Summary. We investigated the hypothesis that aggregation signals produced by male webbing clothes moths (WCM), Tineola bisselliella (Hum.) (Lepidoptera: Tineidae), and close-range male attractant signals produced by females have a pheromonal basis, at least in part. Gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD) and GC-mass spectrometric analyses of bioactive methanolic extracts of male WCM disclosed three candidate pheromone components: hexadecanoic acid methyl ester (16:Ester), (Z)-9-hexadecenoic acid methyl ester (Z9—16:Ester), and octadecanoic acid methyl ester (18:Ester). In bioassay experiments in a large Plexiglas™ arena, a blend of synthetic 16:Ester plus Z9—16:Ester was attractive to male and virgin (but not mated) female WCM; the 18:Ester was inactive. GC-EAD analyses of pheromone gland extracts from female WCM revealed (E,Z)-2,13-octadecadienal (E2Z13—18:Ald) and (E,Z)-2,13-octadecadienol (E2Z13—18:OH) as candidate sex pheromone components. In arena bioassay experiments, 1—5 female equivalents of synthetic E2Z13—18:Ald (0.2 ng) and E2Z13—18:OH (0.1 ng) were more attractive to male WCM than were two virgin female WCM. We anticipate that the combination of aggregation and sex pheromones, male-produced sonic aggregation signals, and habitat-derived semiochemicals will be highly effective in attracting male and female WCM to commercial traps. Received 12 January 2001; accepted 8 June 2001.     

Sources and seasonal variation of PAHs in the sediments of drinking water reservoirs in Hong Kong and the Dongjiang River (China)

The main objective of this study was to investigate occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the sources of the drinking water supply of Hong Kong. The main emphasis was on the Dongjiang River in mainland China which is the major source, supplying 80% of the total consumption in Hong Kong (the remaining 20% is obtained from rain water). Sediments were collected from four sites along the Dongjiang River and four reservoirs in Hong Kong during both the dry and wet weather seasons. The concentrations of total PAHs in the sediments ranged between 36 and 539 microg/kg dry wt. The lower levels were detected at the upstream site on the Dongjiang River and at the reservoirs in Hong Kong (44-85 microg/kg dry wt), while the mid- and downstream sites on the Dongjiang River were more polluted (588-658 microg/kg dry wt). Examination of the PAH profiles revealed that the mid- and downstream sections of the Dongjiang River contained high percentages of 4,5,6-ring PAHs, similar to the amounts of atmospheric particulate matter and road dust collected during the dry weather season from the Pearl River Delta region as reported in the literature. Seasonal changes were revealed in the reservoirs of Hong Kong, with higher PAH levels in the wet weather season than in the dry weather season. For those reservoirs in Hong Kong that store water from the Dongjiang River, a distinct seasonal pattern was also observed, namely, that under dry weather season conditions the PAHs found in the sediments were primarily from petrogenic source, while under wet weather season conditions they were from pyrolytic sources. No such pattern was detected in the reservoirs which stored only rain water.