Driving while impaired by alcohol: An analysis of drink-drivers involved in UK collisions

Objective: Drink-driving represents a critical issue on international organizations’ agendas as one of the key behavioral risk factors in road traffic safety, alongside speed and nonuse of motorcycle helmets, seat belts, and child restraints. Changing road user behaviors regarding these 5 factors is a critical component in reducing road traffic injuries and casualties. The objective of this study is the identification of drivers who are more likely to contribute to crashes in the UK while impaired by alcohol to design targeted drink drive compliance campaigns.

Method: To profile drivers with the factor “impaired by alcohol” assigned in collisions, an extensive data set is used, including all reported injury collisions between 2011 and 2015 in the UK (police records), merged with the Experian Mosaic Database. A multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression is conducted, utilizing the hierarchical nature of the data (drivers within Mosaic types).

Results: Using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis, the finding is that some driver profiles are more likely to contribute to crashes and are assigned the contributory factor “impaired by alcohol.” Drink-related crashes are more common in some circumstances or for some crash-involved driver groups than others. For instance, alcohol-related crashes are more likely to occur on single carriageways and among males and 25- to 35-year-olds. Drink-drive-related crashes are found to be strongly associated with dark lighting conditions and, more specifically, with late night hours (the interval between 3:00 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. accounts for a third of the drink-drive-related collisions). Using the Experian Mosaic Database which divides the UK population into 66 types based on demographic, lifestyle, and behavior characteristics, the finding is that, among crash-involved drivers, some Mosaic types are significantly more likely (e.g., pocket pensions, dependent greys, streetwise singles) and others are significantly less likely (e.g., crowded kaleidoscope, cultural comfort, penthouse chic) to contribute to a drink-related crash.

Conclusions: The outcome is a more nuanced understanding of drivers contributing to drink-related crashes in the UK. The study concludes by discussing the implications for governments and other interested bodies for better targeting and delivery of public education campaigns and interventions.     

A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

Policy conflicts in the siting of natural gas pipelines

ABSTRACT

Researchers often focus on the most intense conflicts, skewing our perception of the diversity and nature of policy conflicts. The paper examines the discourse engaged in the siting of three pipeline projects under construction, each with varying levels of conflict, and one rejected project of high conflict. We analyze over 700 newspaper articles that span the life of each proposed pipeline and supplement the news media data with interviews. Using these data, we compare differences in actor types, frames, and behaviors in natural gas pipeline siting processes characterized by high, medium, and low conflict. Comparing the characteristics of energy siting conflicts at varying intensities helps support corresponding portrayals of how people engage in the policy process. This paper offers theoretical and empirical guidance on understanding policy conflict intensity variation.     

Using Sediment Budgets to Investigate the Pathogen Flux Through Catchments

We demonstrate a materials budget approach to identify the main source areas and fluxes of pathogens through a landscape by using the flux of fine sediments as a proxy for pathogens. Sediment budgets were created for three subcatchment tributaries of the Googong Reservoir in southeastern New South Wales, Australia. Major inputs, sources, stores, and transport zones were estimated using sediment sampling, dam trap efficiency measures, and radionuclide tracing. Particle size analyses were used to quantify the fine-sediment component of the total sediment flux, from which the pathogen flux was inferred by considering the differences between the mobility and transportation of fine sediments and pathogens. Gullies were identified as important sources of fine sediment, and therefore of pathogens, with the pathogen risk compounded when cattle shelter in them during wet periods. The results also indicate that the degree of landscape modification influences both sediment and pathogen mobilization. Farm dams, swampy meadows and glades along drainage paths lower the flux of fine sediment, and therefore pathogens, in this landscape during low-flow periods. However, high-rainfall and high-flow events are likely to transport most of the fine sediment, and therefore pathogen, flux from the Googong landscape to the reservoir. Materials budgets are a repeatable and comparatively low-cost method for investigating the pathogen flux through a landscape.     

Sorption of fenamiphos to different soils: the influence of soil properties

Fenamiphos (0-ethyl-0(3-methyl-4-methylthiophenyl)-isopropylamido-phosphate) is a widely used nematicide and insecticide in bowling greens and agriculture, but information on its sorption including its metabolites is limited. Hence, the sorption of fenamiphos (nematicide) and its major degradation products fenamiphos sulfoxide (FSO) and fenamiphos sulfone (FSO2) were determined in thirteen contrasting soils collected from Australia and Ecuador. The sorption coefficients (Kd) exhibited a wide range of variation from 2.48 to 14.94 L/Kg for fenamiphos; from 0 to 7.42 L/Kg for FSO and from 0 to 9.49 L/Kg for FSO2. The sorption affinity of the three compounds for all soils tested was as follows: fenamiphos > fenamiphos sulfone > fenamiphos sulfoxide. The results showed that the sorption of fenamiphos and its metabolites in some soils is very low, and in one case is nonexistant for the metabolites. This is of particular concern as due to its low sorption coefficient, the compound could easily migrate and contaminate water bodies. Fenamiphos and its oxidation products have been reported to be highly toxic to aquatic invertebrates and therefore, the information generated in this study assumes great importance in the risk assessment of fenamiphos and its metabolites in the environment.     

Biotransformation of metamitron by human p450 expressed in transgenic tobacco cell cultures

In the present investigation, the oxidative metabolism of 14C-labeled metamitron was examined in plant cell cultures of tobacco overexpressing human P450 enzymes CYP1A1 or CYP1A2; special interest was in the aromatic hydroxylation of the herbicide. The oxidative metabolites deaminometamitron (DAM) and 4-hydroxydeaminometamitron (4-HDAM) were found in the untransformed control culture as well as in the transgenic culture. The transgenic cultures, however, exhibited higher turnover rates after 48 h of incubation with 20 microg 14C-metamitron per assay (untransformed: 40%, CYP1A1: 80%, CYP1A2: 100%). Primary metabolite 4-HDAM was partially found in glucosylated form in the transgenic cultures. As minor oxidative metabolites, 6-hydroxyphenyl-3-methoxymethyl-1,2,4-triazine-5(4H)-one and 3-hydroxymethyl-6-phenyl-1,2,4-triazine-5(4H)-one were identified in the transgenic cultures by GC-MS, LC-MS. Additionally, it could be demonstrated that both foreign enzymes (CYP1A1, CYP1A2) also catalyzed the deamination of metamitron. In a large-scale study (up to 400 microg per assay) with the transgenic culture expressing CYP1A2, the high efficiency of this P450 system toward metamitron was demonstrated: turnover of the xenobiotic was almost complete with 400 microg. Since large portions of unglucosylated 4-H-DAM were found, the activity of foreign CYP1A2 apparently exceeded that of endogenous O-glucosyltransferases of the tobacco cell culture. We concluded that in comparison to the nontransformed cell culture, the extent of metabolism was considerably higher in the transgenic cultures. The transgenic cell cultures expressing human CYP1A1 or CYP1A2 are thus suitable tools for the production of large quantities of primary oxidized metabolites of metamitron.     

Mineralization,metabolism and formation of non-extractable residues of 14C-labelled organic contaminants during pilot-scale composting of municipal biowaste

Use of municipal biowaste for composting instead of its disposal has become a major source of concern as regards contamination by hazardous substances. To elucidate the hazard potential of compost application, municipal biowaste was amended with 14C-labelled model substances (pyrene, simazine) and incubated in a pilot-scale composting simulation system. A mass balance incorporating the mineralization, metabolism and sorption of the two model substances was established over a period of 370 days. The results are quite different for the two chemicals, reflecting their intrinsic properties: more than 60% of the applied 14C-simazine resulted in non-extractable residues (NER). Silylation experiments indicated that the formation of NER from simazine and its metabolites was due to both physical entrapment in the matrix and chemical binding. The mineralization and formation of NER represented the major pathways of disappearance for pyrene during one year of composting, accounting for 60 and 26% of initially applied 14C-activity, respectively. Mineralization occurred delayed after the thermophilic phase. As regards remobilization, release of pyrene from NER during composting could be excluded, whereas simazine, data were inconclusive in this respect.     

Are indigenous forest reserves sustainable? An analysis of present and future land-use trends in Bosawas,Nicaragua

SUMMARY

In recent years, indigenous tenure over forest lands has emerged as a means to conserve forests while recognizing indigenous rights. There is concern, however, that indigenous reserves may not be an appropriate policy tool for sustained forest conservation. Our research examined how recognition of indigenous common-property rights has controlled agricultural expansion and conserved forests in Bosawas Biosphere Reserve, Nicaragua. We used satellite imagery with empirical data gathered in the field on land-use institutions, population pressures, and land-use practices to compare whether indigenous communities under territorial management or public management are better able to (1) control the ‘fast threat’ of frontier expansion and (2) address the long-term ecological threats posed by indigenous land-use practices and institutional changes in the region. Our findings are that indigenous residents who share common-property rights over their territories are better able to control agricultural expansion than are indigenous residents living on public lands. With respect to the long-term threats to the region, a series of simulations of possible land-use pressures demonstrate that the enforcement of territorial boundaries and further development of indigenous forest management rules will prove crucial in determining land-use capacity and deforestation over the next 50 years.