A survey of diagnostic amniocenteses in Oxford from 1974–1981

A survey was conducted of the results of mid-trimester diagnostic amniocenteses in the Oxford Region from 1974 to 1981. The survey used data relating to all 4357 singleton pregnancies in which an amniocentesis was performed during this period. Follow-up information on outcome was obtained in respect of 4284 (98 per cent) pregnancies. A cell culture to determine karyotype and an alpha-fetoprotein determination was carried out in all cases. From 1974 to 1981 amniocenteses became increasingly common, rising from 2 to 32 per 1000 births. The most common indication for amniocentesis was a high risk of a chromosome abnormality–56 per cent of all amniocenteses. Within this group advanced maternal age was responsible for 89 per cent of the cases. The next most common indication was a high risk of a neural tube defect (37 per cent of all amniocenteses)–in 1974 a raised maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein level accounted for only 4 per cent of these; by 1981 this had risen to 67 per cent. There were seven false-positive and 132 true-positive diagnoses of neural tube defect; since 1981, with the introduction of amniotic fluid acetylocholinesterase determination as a secondary diagnostic test for neural tube defects, there have been no further false-positive diagnoses. In 1981 76 per cent of women aged 35 years or more did not have an amniocentesis. It is not known to what extent this was due to not offering women in this age group amniocentesis or to women not accepting such an offer.     

Biodiversity Differences between Managed and Unmanaged Forests: Meta-Analysis of Species Richness in Europe

Abstract: Past and present pressures on forest resources have led to a drastic decrease in the surface area of unmanaged forests in Europe. Changes in forest structure, composition, and dynamics inevitably lead to changes in the biodiversity of forest‐dwelling species. The possible biodiversity gains and losses due to forest management (i.e., anthropogenic pressures related to direct forest resource use), however, have never been assessed at a pan‐European scale. We used meta‐analysis to review 49 published papers containing 120 individual comparisons of species richness between unmanaged and managed forests throughout Europe. We explored the response of different taxonomic groups and the variability of their response with respect to time since abandonment and intensity of forest management. Species richness was slightly higher in unmanaged than in managed forests. Species dependent on forest cover continuity, deadwood, and large trees (bryophytes, lichens, fungi, saproxylic beetles) and carabids were negatively affected by forest management. In contrast, vascular plant species were favored. The response for birds was heterogeneous and probably depended more on factors such as landscape patterns. The global difference in species richness between unmanaged and managed forests increased with time since abandonment and indicated a gradual recovery of biodiversity. Clearcut forests in which the composition of tree species changed had the strongest effect on species richness, but the effects of different types of management on taxa could not be assessed in a robust way because of low numbers of replications in the management‐intensity classes. Our results show that some taxa are more affected by forestry than others, but there is a need for research into poorly studied species groups in Europe and in particular locations. Our meta‐analysis supports the need for a coordinated European research network to study and monitor the biodiversity of different taxa in managed and unmanaged forests.     

The impact of airport de-icing on a river: the case of the Ouseburn, Newcastle upon Tyne

The damaging effects of airport de-icers to adjacent waterways have been suggested by a number of studies, but none have been able to demonstrate these effects in a field situation. The Ouseburn is a part-urban and partrural catchment of varied land-use and includes a tributary which drains the Newcastle International Airport. The tributary contributes only 3-5% of the river's average flow, yet it had a disproportionately adverse impact upon the river. This paper demonstrates how this was linked to the airport's winter application of urea salt de-icers. An integrated approach involving hydrological, chemical, bacteriological and macroinvertebrate sampling was used. During cold weather, higher levels of ammonia were recorded in the tributary and downstream, and concentrations peaked during runoff events. It is suggested that hydrolysis, facilitated by urea digesting bacteria, and surface runoff is the mechanism by which ammonia enters the stream. The airport tributary had a less diverse macroinvertebrate fauna than expected and had larger numbers of bacteria which were able to utilise urea. In-situ bioassay experiments found large deaths of Gammarus pulex (L.) and low biotic indices at a site downstream of the airport tributary confluence. Together with elevated ammonia levels this suggested that urea application adversely impacted on the main stream's water quality and ecology. The airport authorities have responded by changing to a less toxic de-icer.     

The Evolution and Role of Non-OPEC Production in the International Oil Market

In 1982, for the first time since OPEC was founded in 1961, its production was surpassed by the non-OPEC countries in the world excluding the centrally planned economies. In that year, for the world as a whole, OPEC provided 35% of the oil consumed. The decline was brought about by a decrease in consumption and by a marked increase in production from non-OPEC sources. It is expected that non-OPEC producers will have the capacity to meet more than half of the world's oil requirements until the early 1990s, at which time OPEC producers will again assume the role of providing over 50% of the world's oil.     

Janzen-Connell effects are widespread and strong enough to maintain diversity in grasslands

Crop rotation schemes are believed to work by preventing specialist soil-borne pests from depressing the future yields of similar crops. In ecology, such negative plant-soil feedbacks may be viewed as a type of Janzen-Connell effect, which promotes species coexistence and diversity by preventing the same species from repeatedly occupying a particular site. In a controlled greenhouse experiment with 24 plant species and using soils from established field monocultures, we reveal community-wide soil-based Janzen-Connell effects between the three major functional groups of plants in temperate European grasslands. The effects are much stronger and more prevalent if plants are grown in interspecific competition. Using several soil treatments (gamma irradiation, activated carbon, fungicide, fertilizer) we show that the mechanism of the negative feedback is the buildup of soil pathogens which reduce the competitive ability of nearly all species when grown on soils they have formerly occupied. We further show that the magnitude of the change in competitive outcome is sufficient to stabilize observed fitness differences between functional groups in reasonably large communities. The generality and strength of this negative feedback suggests that Janzen-Connell effects have been underestimated as drivers of plant diversity in temperate ecosystems.     

渤海湾两条河流及其近岸海域水体中DOM的光谱特征及影响因素

应用三维荧光光谱结合吸收光谱分析,研究了2019年夏季天津市大清河-独流减河水系和河北省黄骅市捷地减河及其河口区水体中溶解有机物（DOM）的空间分布特征、来源及其影响因素。紫外-可见光谱结果表明,研究区水体的SUVA₂₅₄与盐度有显著正相关关系;两条河流的下游水体中S_275-295均值均大于上游和中游。平行因子分析结果表明,两条河流均检测到两种类腐殖质组分C1（240,300/390 nm）和C3（260,335/477 nm）以及一种类蛋白质组分C2（225,275/339 nm）。在大清河-独流减河水系及其近岸海域水体中,这三种组分与盐度呈显著负相关关系,其中由于人为输入（TN和TP含量高,工业排污）影响导致C2与盐度的相关性弱于C1和C3。该水系水体在低盐度时C2的占比高于捷地减河,主要受到工农业废水输入与其支流子牙河汇入的共同影响,而捷地减河主要受农业废污水输入的影响。此外,自然因素（盐度、海水混合）和人为因素（人为输入、筑坝拦截）的不同导致渤海湾两条入海河流中有色溶解有机质（CDOM）的光学特性和混合行为出现显著差异。其中筑坝拦截导致独流减河坝前水体的CDOM平均分子量低于下游水体,并且增强了河口区陆源类腐殖质的去除作用。综上,三维荧光光谱结合平行因子分析能判别河流局部条件的差异对整体CDOM空间分布特征的影响,研究结果可为渤海湾地区河流及河口水体CDOM生物地球化学过程研究提供基础数据。     

基于游客视角的红色旅游资源开发价值共创机制

以井冈山风景名胜区作为案例地,基于价值共创理论,运用大数据分析与内容分析方法,收集并分析马蜂窝网站上井冈山景区的游记文本,构建红色旅游资源开发的价值共创机制：以历史文化遗产、自然景观资源和标志性景观符号为资源基础,游客通过红色文化体验、学习培训活动、解说服务体验和自然景观体验等实践活动,获得对红色历史文化的认知、情感的联结和价值观的塑造。另外,红色旅游景区现有的价值共创实践仍旧有限,红色旅游资源开发价值共创机制整合了游客需求、景区支持以及可能存在的价值共创实践,对创新红色旅游资源开发利用手段与产业转型升级具有实践意义。     

An Australian perspective on rewilding

Rewilding is increasingly recognized as a conservation tool but is often context specific, which inhibits broad application. Rewilding in Australia seeks to enhance ecosystem function and promote self-sustaining ecosystems. An absence of large-bodied native herbivores means trophic rewilding in mainland Australia has focused on the restoration of functions provided by apex predators and small mammals. Because of the pervasive influence of introduced mesopredators, predator-proof fences, and establishment of populations on predator-free islands are common rewilding approaches. This sets Australian rewilding apart from most jurisdictions and provides globally relevant insights but presents challenges to restoring function to broader landscapes. Passive rewilding is of limited utility in arid zones. Although increasing habitat extent and quality in mesic coastal areas may work, it will likely be necessary to undertake active management. Because much of Australia's population is in urban areas, rewilding efforts must include urban areas to maximize effectiveness. Thus rewilding is not synonymous with wilderness and can occur over multiple scales. Rewilding efforts must recognize human effects on other species and benefit both nature and humans. Rewilding in Australia requires development of a shared vision and strategy and proof-of-concept projects to demonstrate the benefits. The repackaging of existing conservation activities as rewilding may confuse and undermine the success of rewilding programs and should be avoided. As elsewhere, rewilding in Australia should be viewed as an important conservation tool.