Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

The hardrock minerals industry and the landscape architect

The landscape architecture profession is a source of creative thinking and planning which is relatively untapped within the mining industry in the United States of America. The landscape architect has been active in European operations for years as indicated by the four examples presented. The landscape architect can provide an important interface with mine design and engineering and environmental affairs. To initiate this interface within the United States, and increase its effectiveness, six objectives are presented and discussed.     

Tree growth inference and prediction from diameter censuses and ring widths.

Estimation of tree growth is based on sparse observations of tree diameter, ring widths, or increments read from a dendrometer. From annual measurements on a few trees (e.g., increment cores) or sporadic measurements from many trees (e.g., diameter censuses on mapped plots), relationships with resources, tree size, and climate are extrapolated to whole stands. There has been no way to formally integrate different types of data and problems of estimation that result from (1) multiple sources of observation error, which frequently result in impossible estimates of negative growth, (2) the fact that data are typically sparse (a few trees or a few years), whereas inference is needed broadly (many trees over many years), (3) the fact that some unknown fraction of the variance is shared across the population, and (4) the fact that growth rates of trees within competing stands are not independent. We develop a hierarchical Bayes state space model for tree growth that addresses all of these challenges, allowing for formal inference that is consistent with the available data and the assumption that growth is nonnegative. Prediction follows directly, incorporating the full uncertainty from inference with scenarios for "filling the gaps" for past growth rates and for future conditions affecting growth. An example involving multiple species and multiple stands with tree-ring data and up to 14 years of tree census data illustrates how different levels of information at the tree and stand level contribute to inference and prediction.     

Chorionic villus sampling utilization following reports of a possible association with fetal limb defects

Prenatal diagnosis choices were reviewed in 473 women who presented for genetic counselling prior to 11 weeks' gestation for the indication of advanced maternal age. Group A consisted of 336 patients who were unaware of a possible association between chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and limb defects. Group B consisted of 137 patients who were provided this information. Fifty-one per cent of patients in group A and 45 per cent of patients in group B chose CVS. This difference was not significant by χ² analysis (P = 0·7). Patterns of prenatal diagnosis procedure utilization from 1987 to 1992 revealed a significant reduction in CVS utilization accompanied by a corresponding increase in amniocentesis after the association between CVS and limb defects was publicized. Referrals for CVS counselling also significantly declined. However, acceptance rates did not change for those patients who received genetic counselling. First-trimester genetic counselling, including a discussion regarding a possible association between CVS and limb defects, helps patients make informed decisions concerning prenatal diagnosis options, and, in our population, resulted in no change in CVS acceptance rates.     

Socio-economic impact management: programme design and implementation considerations

While larger mineral resource development projects offer new jobs and provide a stimulus to the economy of the area where they are sited, they may also pose problems in rural areas associated with rapid population growth. The purpose of an impact management programme is to anticipate and alleviate project effects that are generally perceived as undesirable and to enhance effects that are beneficial to site area communities. While the effective management of project effects is the end towards which all impact assessment efforts are directed, an integrated approach to impact management has been notably lacking. This paper suggests a systems framework for meeting this need by: (1) reviewing the need for impact management efforts; (2) discussing the objectives of, and considerations in, designing impact management programmes; (3) presenting a conceptual framework for, and key components of, such a programme; and (4) suggesting an approach for implementing such a system as an integral part of the project development process.     

White-tailed deer movement and distribution about surface coal mines in West Virginia,USA

Deer movements around surface coal mines were investigated in Preston Country, West Virginia, USA. Seventy-two deer crossings were counted on 29 surface mines with only 8% found on highwalls with more than 20% rock or stone. Thus, although slope was important, the percentage of dirt on the highwall determined use as a crossing location for deer. The average distance between all deer crossing was 209.7 m but the distance between the end of the highwall and the nearest highwall crossing was 248.7 m indicating reluctance of deer to cross mines when they could walk around them. Winter snow track counts showed fewer deer within 90 m of the top edge of the highwall. Four land bridges traversed the highwall and were heavily utilized by deer, especially in March, April, May, October and November. The surface mine bench was used as a fawn bedding area, but little feeding occurred on this portion of the mine.     

A field test of processed oil shale reclamation strategies designed for minimal use of limited resources

Reclamation of processed oil shale disposal areas in the arid and semi-arid regions of Utah, Colorado and Wyoming faces several challenging problems. Shallow topsoil, harsh climate and limited water supply and low suitability of processed oil shale as a plant growth medium must be addressed if any reclamation plan is to be successful.A prototype reclamation plan that addressed the harsh environmental conditions was proposed early in the development of oil shale in eastern Utah. Studies to validate the reclamation plan were initiated in 1978 on a simulated oil shale disposal area at Anvil Points, Colorado.Four native shrubs, one forb and a grass, were successfully established by planting container-grown transplants into a topsoil-filled V-shaped trench. Supplemental water was provided from an adjacent water harvesting slope. The roots of the transplanted species grew into the adjacent shale from the soil trench, thus indicating their adaptability to the adverse oil shale conditions.Support for this research was provided by the White River Shale Corporation, Salt Lake City, Utah.