The role of intraguild predation in the population dynamics of small pelagic fish

In this paper, we argue that understanding marine ecosystem functioning requires a thorough appreciation of the role of intraguild predation to system dynamics. The theoretical predictions of intraguild predation models might explain some of the community features observed in marine ecosystems such as low diversity in upwelling and productive systems and species alternation in response to moderate external forcing. Finally, we argue that an ecosystem approach to fisheries requires that the size–structure of fish populations should be taken into account and that it is extremely important to account for the predators of early stages (eggs and larvae) to gain a thorough understanding of the key interactions between species.     

Fish recruitment prediction, using robust supervised classification methods

Improving our ability to predict recruitment is a key element in fisheries management. However, the interactions between population dynamics and different environmental factors are complex and often non-linear, making it difficult to produce robust predictions. ‘Machine-learning’ techniques (in particular, supervised classification methods) have been proposed as useful tools, to overcome such difficulties. In this study, a methodology is proposed to build a robust classifier for fish recruitment prediction with sparse and noisy data. The methodology consists of 4 steps: (1) a semi-automated recruitment discretization method; (2) supervised discretization of predictors; (3) multivariate and non-redundant predictors selection; (4) learning a probabilistic classifier. In terms of fisheries management, the classifier estimated performance has important consequences and, to be useful, the manager needs to know the risk that is being taken when using this number. Probabilistic classifiers such as ‘naive Bayes’, have the advantage that, in addition to the predictions, estimate also the probability of each possible outcome. Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and hake (Merluccius merluccius) recruitments are used as application examples. ‘Two-intervals’ recruitment discretization accomplishes 70% accuracies and Brier scores of around 0.10, for both anchovy and hake recruitment. In comparison, ‘three-intervals’ recruitment discretization accomplishes 50% accuracies; and Brier scores of around 0.25 for anchovy and 0.30 for hake recruitment. These statistics are the result of validating not only the classifier, but also the previous steps, as a whole methodology.     

Self-purification processes along a medium-sized stream

Water quality levels and loads of nutrients transported by the Agüera stream (northern Spain) were studied for a year to assess the self-purification capacity of this system. The main villages produce an increase of nutrient concentrations and a degradation of water quality. Nevertheless, the high retention capacity, especially for phosphate, allows the stream to recover its previous levels of quality after a short reach. The retention of nutrients depends on a complex combination of the flow level, hydrologic stability and the development of periphytic communities.