A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Introduced and cryptogenic species in Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia

Port Phillip Bay (PPB) is a large (1,930 km²), temperate embayment in southern Victoria, Australia. Extensive bay-wide surveys of PPB have occurred since 1840. In 1995/1996 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests (CRIMP) undertook an intensive evaluation of the region with the aims of developing a comprehensive species list of native and introduced biota and contrasting previous bay-wide assessments with a current field survey in order to detect new incursions and discern alterations to native communities. Two methods were used to meet these aims: a re-evaluation of regional museum collections and published research in PPB to identify and determine the timing of introductions; and field surveys for benthic (infauna, epifauna and encrusting) organisms between September 1995 to March 1996. One hundred and sixty introduced (99) and cryptogenic (61) species were identified representing over 13% of the recorded species of PPB. As expected, the majority of these are concentrated around the shipping ports of Geelong and Melbourne. Invasions within PPB appear to be increasing, possibly due to an increase in modern shipping traffic and an increase in aquaculture (historically associated with incidental introductions); however the records of extensive biological surveys suggest that this may, in part, be an artefact of sampling effort. In contrast to Northern Hemisphere studies, PPB (and Southern Hemisphere introductions in general) have significantly different suites of successfully invading taxa. PPB is presented as one of the most invaded marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Zinc processing in the USA : An analysis of a declining industry

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the recent behaviour of the US zinc processing industry and the impact of US government policies on it. The first section of the paper is a discussion on the basic structure and conditions of the US zinc processing industry since 1950 and how they have changed. The discussion contains a general presentation of the US zinc market, a detailed look at the behaviour of individual primary zinc processing plants in the USA, Canada, Japan and Western Europe and an analysis of US government policies and their impacts on the US zinc industry. The second section of the paper is a discussion of the factors that have contributed to the decline in US zinc processing capacity and the type of government policy that should be followed in response.     

The effects of mobile speed camera introduction on road traffic crashes and casualties in a rural county of England

PROBLEM: This study assesses the impact of crash and casualty numbers in correspondence to the introduction of mobile speed cameras in the rural county of Norfolk, England. METHOD: Road traffic accident casualty and crash data were collected for two years before the introduction of cameras and two years subsequently. The casualties and crashes occurring at 29 camera sites were identified and separated from those occurring in the rest of the county. Trends in crashes and casualties, and their severity, were examined graphically and comparisons were made between before and after periods. The regression to the mean effect at individual sites was estimated. RESULTS: After the introduction of cameras, overall crashes declined by 1% and crashes involving fatalities or serious injuries declined by 9% on the roads without cameras. At the camera sites, crashes decreased by 19% and fatal and serious crashes by 44%. The reduction in total crashes was significantly greater than that expected from the effect of regression to the mean in 12 out of 20 sites tested. SUMMARY: The introduction of cameras appears to have resulted in real and measurable reductions in crash risk in this rural county. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our results suggest the deployment of mobile speed cameras is an effective tool for organizations wishing to reduce road traffic casualties in areas where high crash rates have been associated with excessive vehicle speeds.     

Using Multiple Antibiotic Resistance and land use characteristics to determine sources of fecal coliform bacterial pollution

Multiple Antibiotic Resistance (MAR) analysis and regression modeling techniques were used to identify surface water areas impacted by fecal pollution from human sources, and to determine the effects of land use on fecal pollution in Murrells Inlet, a small, urbanized, high-salinity estuary located between Myrtle Beach and Georgetown, South Carolina. MAR analysis was performed to identify areas in the estuary that are impacted by human-source fecal pollution. Additionally, regression analysis was performed to determine if an association exists between land use and fecal coliform densities over the ten-year period from 1989 to 1998. Land-use variables were derived using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and were used in the regression analysis.MAR analyses were conducted by comparing the frequency and patterns of antibiotic resistance found in Escherichia coli isolates derived from surface water samples and from sewage sources in the Murrells Inlet sewage collection system. The MAR results suggest that the majority of the fecal pollution detected in the Murrells Inlet estuary may be from non-human sources, including fecal coliforms isolated from areas in close proximity to high densities of active septic tanks.A MAR Index, which measures the frequency of antibiotic resistance, was calculated for each of twenty-three water samples and nine sewage samples. The antibiotic resistance pattern comparisons were performed using cluster analysis. Although the MAR indices indicated that several surface water sites had potential human-source contamination, the cluster analysis suggests that only one sampling site had MAR patterns that were similar to those found in the sewage samples. This site was in close proximity to several large pleasure boats as well as a sewage collection system lift station, but was not near areas with active septic tanks. The results of the regression analysis also suggest that sewage sources and rainfall runoff from urbanized areas may contribute to fecal pollution in the estuary.     

Development of a practical forest ecosystem classification from existing biophysical studies: An approach used in northwestern Quebec

While forest ecosystem classification work in Quebec has traditionally concentrated on inventory and mapping, more effort is now being placed on developing field guides similar to those produced in other Canadian provinces. As part of a project to produce a practical forest ecosystem field guide for the Amos Lowlands Ecological Region in northwestern Quebec, existing sub-regional ecological studies were exploited in order to develop a regional classification of forest ecosystems, or forest stations. Review of four fundamental studies provided a list of 107 ecological phases, each representing a particular combination of forest composition, surface deposit type and moisture regime. A series of silvicultural and environmental interpretations were developed and values for each were attributed to the ecological phases. Cluster analysis was then performed to classify phases into 29 broader units. A large, regional biophysical database which became available later in the project provided a means of validating and effectively modifying the classification. The justifications for using the original approach are discussed.     

Declines in organochlorines in eggs of red-breasted mergansers from Lake Michigan, 1977–1978 versus 1990

From 1977–1978 to 1990, concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and most organochlorine pesticides declined in eggs of red-breasted mergansers (Mergus serrator) nesting on islands in northwestern Lake Michigan. Total PCBs decreased 60% (from 21 ppm in 1977–1978 to 8.5 ppm in 1990) and p,p-DDE decreased 66% (from 6.5 to 2.2 ppm). Dieldrin decreased only 16% (from 0.82 to 0.69 ppm). In 1990, 79.1% of incubated eggs hatched, which was not significantly different from the 83.5% that hatched in 1977–1978.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Adverse outcome in pregnancy following amniotic fluid isolation of Ureaplasma urealyticum

Infections in pregnancy with Ureaplasma urealyticum have been associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes, such as early abortion, stillbirth, prematurity, and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Causality has been difficult to demonstrate secondary to the high prevalence of asymptomatic lower genital tract (LGT) colonization and culture data from inaccessible or potentially contaminated sites. Between 1985 and 1989, 2461 second-trimester genetic amniocenteses were evaluated at the cytogenetics section of the Children's Hospital Medical Center of Akron. All were cultured for the genital mycoplasmas: Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma urealyticum. A total of nine patients were positive, all for Ureaplasma urealyticum, with one patient excluded because of subsequent therapeutic abortion. In addition, complete follow-up data, such as indication for amniocentesis, serum alpha-fetoprotein levels, gestational age at parturition, and out- come of pregnancy, were available on 86 Ureaplasma-negative (U –) patients during an approximate 2-year span within the time-frame of the study. This was in part due to physician response to a questionnaire sent after amniocentesis. Of the eight positive cultures, 100 per cent were associated with an adverse outcome, defined as fetal loss or premature delivery. This was significant compared with the U–group (p<0.001) with a more than eight times greater risk of adverse outcome. Six (75 per cent) resulted in spontaneous miscarriage within 4 weeks of amniocentesis and at less than 21 weeks' gestation. Two (25 per cent) delivered prematurely, with one (12.5 per cent) neonatal death at 24+ weeks. Histological examination of all eight placentae and the seven fetuses revealed a 100 per cent incidence of chorioamnionitis and pneumonia, respectively. In addition, in four of the five cases (80 per cent), cultures were positive for Ureaplasma urealyticum in pure culture from either placenta, fetal lung, or both tissues. The remaining case (20 per cent) was negative for aerobes, anaerobes, and mycoplasmas. The study demonstrates a significant association and supports a causal relationship between isolation of Ureaplasma from mid-trimester amniotic fluid with fetal wastage and premature birth.