Estimating the risk of a fetal autosomal trisomy at mid-trimester using maternal serum alpha fetoprotein and age: A retrospective study of 142 pregnancies

Risks appropriate for mid-trimester prenatal screening for autosomal trisomies have been estimated from a combination of maternal age and maternal serum (MS) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 16–20 weeks gestation. Published data on the frequency of Down's syndrome births relative to maternal age were modified to include the additional age-related frequency of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13 cases to provide an overall risk for an autosomal trisomy at midtrimester. MSAFP results from a retrospective study of 142 affected (114 trisomy 21, 19 trisomy 18, and 9 trisomy 13)and 113 000 unaffected pregnancies were converted to multiples of the appropriate gestational median (MOM). The AFP levels in the autosomal trisomy pregnancies were found to be significantly reduced at 0.72 MOM of the unaffected pregnancies. Risks (likelihood ratios) were derived from the overlapping log Gaussian distributions for affected and unaffected pregnancies and combined with maternal age risks to give the overall odds of an affected pregnancy. A mid-trimester cut-off risk of 1:280 gave an estimated 37 per cent detection rate for autosomal trisomies in the west of Scotland population for a follow-up (false-positive) rate of 6.6 per cent. These figures compare with a 30 per cent detection and 6.7 per cent false-positive rate if age 35 years and over is used as the sole criterion for selection of at-risk pregnancies.     

A note on the allocation of investment

It is shown by example that the results obtained by Gruver [11 concerning specialization of investment in either directly productive or pollution control capital arise because of an implicit linearity assumption on the underlying technology. Utilizing a strictly concave “eighth sphere” technology, results are obtained which imply joint investment in the two types of capital except in “rare” instances. The results indicate the need for incorporating more general technologies into the analysis of such problems.     

Atmospheric Factors Influencing Daily Sulfate Concentrations in Chicago Air

Abstract

Confidence interval construction for central tendency is a problem of practical consequence for those who must analyze air contaminant data. Determination of compliance with relevant ambient air quality criteria and assessment of associated health risks depend upon quantifying the uncertainty of estimated mean pollutant concentrations. The bootstrap is a resampling technique that has been steadily gaining popularity and acceptance during the past several years. A potentially powerful application of the bootstrap is the construction of confidence intervals for any parameter of any underlying distribution. Properties of bootstrap confidence intervals were determined for samples generated from lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions. Bootstrap t intervals, while having smaller coverage errors than Student's t or other bootstrap methods, under-cover for small samples from skewed distributions. Therefore, we caution against using the bootstrap to construct confidence intervals for the mean without first considering the effects of sample size and skew. When sample sizes are small, one might consider using the median as an estimate of central tendency. Confidence intervals for the median are easy to construct and do not under-cover. Data collected by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) are used to illustrate application of the methods discussed.     

Comparison of Air Pollutant Emissions from Vaporizing and Air Atomizing Waste Oil Heaters

Information presented in this paper is directed to individuals concerned with emissions from combustion of waste crankcase oil for space heating. Studies were performed to characterize gaseous and particulate emissions and vaporizing pot solid residues resulting from the combustion of waste crankcase oil. Two types of waste oil burners were tested. One was a vaporizing oil burner rated at 35.2 kW (120,000 Btu/h heat input), and the other was an air atomizing oil burner rated at 73.3 kW (250,000 Btu/h heat input). Except for NO_X and SO_X, gaseous emissions were similar to those from conventional distillate oil combustion. NO_X and SO_X emissions were higher due to higher fuel nitrogen and sulfur concentrations. Waste oil from automotive use showed higher inorganic levels than crankcase oil used for truck engine lubrication. Both burner types discharged high levels of metallic species, but the air atomizing unit had much higher stack emission levels than did the vaporizing pot system. Also, particulate loading levels were an order of magnitude higher for the air atomizing burner than for the vaporizing pot burner when firing the waste oils. However, the vaporizing pot burner generated a waste residue containing the majority of its elemental emissions. Elements which exceeded threshold limit values for one or both heaters were cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, nickel, phosphorus, and zinc. However, the nickel and much of chromium appeared to be a sampling artifact caused by the stainless steel sampling system.     

Compatible Blends of Zein and Polyvinylpyrrolidone

Blends of zein and polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) were compared based on their tensile properties, thermal properties and morphology. Zein was blended with polyvinylpyrrolidone of varying molecular weights (10, 55, and 1,300 kDa) and films were cast from ethanol solutions. Films cast using the higher molecular weight polymers showed an improvement in tensile strength, up to a 24% increase, compared to control. Differential scanning calorimetry data for the blends showed single T_m and T_g values of an intermediate value between those of zein and PVP control samples. Field emission scanning electron microscopy images show no obvious inhomogeneities, and confocal fluorescence microscopy showed no decreased uniformity in the PVP/zein films compared to control. Electrospun fibers of the zein/PVP blends were also obtained. These findings suggest that zein and polyvinylpyrrolidone combine to form a compatible blend, the first such blend of zein with a synthetic polymer.     

Using a reduced Common Representative Intermediates (CRIv2-R5) mechanism to simulate tropospheric ozone in a 3-D Lagrangian chemistry transport model

A reduced chemical scheme (CRIv2-R5) which describes ozone formation from the tropospheric degradation of methane and 22 emitted non-methane hydrocarbons and oxygenated volatile organic compounds has been applied in a global-3D chemistry transport model (STOCHEM). The scheme, which contains 220 species in 609 reactions, has been used to simulate ozone and its precursors for the meteorological year of 1998 and the results have been compared with those from STOCHEM runs with its original chemistry. Compared with the original chemistry scheme, the degradation of a larger number of more reactive VOCs in the CRI scheme results in the formation (and their consequent transportation) of more NO_x active reservoirs thus leading to formation of more ozone away from land-based sources. Conversely, the more reactive VOCs also lead to greater removal of OH in continental areas and greater formation of OH in marine environments. STOCHEM run with the CRI scheme simulates more ozone (by up to 10 ppb), which results in better agreement with observed vertical ozone profiles. The CRI scheme transforms the globally and annually integrated ozone budget for the considered year in STOCHEM from a net loss of ?55 Tg yr^?1 to a net gain of +50 Tg yr^?1.     

Results from Three Field Tracer Experiments on the Neighbourhood Scale in the City of Birmingham UK

The physical processes governing flow and pollutantdispersion at the neighbourhood scale, a spatial scaleintermediate between the street scale and the city scale, is notwell understood. Furthermore, it is not clear whether a traditional approach using averaged characteristics such as theaerodynamic roughness length is sufficient to predict the concentration field at this scale. To investigate pollutant dispersion in a real urban area, three field experiments were designed within the UK-URGENT programme sponsored by NERC. Theexperiments were performed in the City of Birmingham using a finite duration release of inert, non-toxic and non-depositingtracers, vis. perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH) and perfluoromethylcyclopentane (PMCP). Measurements were taken using air bag samplers placedin an arc at 3.5 km (first experiment) and 1 km (second andthird experiments) from the source; some trap samplers wereplaced outside the main arc in the outskirts of the city. Measurements were analysed in the laboratory using anovel gas-chromatography technique. Data so obtained werecompared with predictions from a simple steady-state modeland a time-dependent model. The concentration-time serieswere very asymmetrical with a sharp rise, a plateau followedby a relatively slow decrease and finally a long-livedplateau above (or possibly very slow decrease to) thebackground level.     

The Effect of Shoreline Recreational Angling Activities on Aquatic and Riparian Habitat Within an Urban Environment: Implications for Conservation and Management

There is growing concern that recreational shoreline angling activity may negatively impact littoral and riparian habitats independent of any direct or indirect influences of fish harvest or fishing mortality through mechanisms such as disturbance (e.g., trampling, erosion) and pollution (e.g., littering). We sampled a suite of aquatic and terrestrial variables (i.e., water quality, aquatic and terrestrial macrophytes, soil compaction, anthropogenic refuse) at 14 high shoreline angling-activity sites (identified by way of interviews with conservation officers and angling clubs) within an urban area (Ottawa, Canada). For each high angling-activity site, a nearby corresponding low angling-activity site was sampled for comparison. We found that the percentage of barren area and soil compaction were greater in areas of high angling activity compared with areas that experienced relatively low angling activity. In addition, terrestrial and aquatic macrophyte density, height, and diversity were lower at high angling-activity sites. Angling- and non-angling-related litter was present in large quantities at each of the high angling-activity sites, and comparatively little litter was found at low angling-activity sites. Collectively, these findings indicate that shoreline angling does alter the riparian environment, contributing to pollution and environmental degradation in areas of high angling intensity. With growing interest in providing urban angling opportunities and in response to increasing interest in developing protected areas and parks, a better understanding of the ecologic impacts of shoreline angling is necessary to address multiuser conflicts, to develop angler outreach and educational materials, and to optimize management of angling effort to maintain ecologic integrity of riparian and aquatic ecosystems.     

Mechanical Property Characterization of Plasticized Sugar Beet Pulp and Poly(Lactic Acid) Green Composites Using Acoustic Emission and Confocal Microscopy

Sorbitol and glycerol were used to plasticize sugar beet pulp-poly(lactic acid) green composites. The plasticizer was incorporated into sugar beet pulp (SBP) at 0%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% w/w at low temperature and shear and then compounded with poly(lactic acid) (PLA) using twin-screw extrusion and injection molding. The SBP:PLA ratio was maintained at 30:70. As expected, tensile strength decreased by 25% and the elongation increased. Acoustic emission (AE) showed correlated debonding and fracture mechanisms for up to 20% w/w plasticizer and uncorrelated debonding and fracture for 30–40% sorbitol and 30% glycerol content in SBP–PLA composites. All samples had a well dispersed SBP phase with some aggregation in the PLA matrix. However, at 40% glycerol plasticized SBP–PLA composites exhibited unique AE behavior and confocal microscopy revealed the plasticized SBP and PLA formed a co-continuous two phase system.