Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

Resource scarcity,energy use and environmental impact: A case study of the New Bedford,Massachusetts, USA,fisheries

The commercial fishing fleet in New Bedford, Massachusetts, USA, harvests seafood on George’s Bank, home of one of the nation’s most productive fisheries. We calculated the energy return on investment (EROI) and carbon intensity of protein harvest in the New Bedford fisheries from 1968 to 1988. EROI is the ratio of the energy content of the edible fish protein harvested to the quantity of fossil fuel energy used directly in the harvesting process. Carbon intensity is the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO₂) released (from the burning of fossil fuels) per calorie of edible fish protein harvested. The results show that the EROI of protein harvest declined from 0.18 to 0.028 from 1968 to 1988, indicating that the energy used to harvest seafood increased from about 6 to 36 kcal of fuel for each kilocalorie of protein harvested. The quantity of CO₂ released per calorie of edible fish protein is a linear function of energy use and therefore increased in a similar manner. During this period there was a large increase in fishing effort (caused by the increase in the real price of seafood products, favorable tax treatment for new vessel construction, and low interest loans from the government), and a decline in several important species of fish. The results suggest that fishing pressure could be managed effectively by the regulation of fuel use by the fleet. Despite the increase in the price of many seafood products, fishermen absorbed many of the costs of increasing scarcity in the form of longer working hours and fewer men per vessel.     

The economics of sequential choice applied to quasi-option value

This paper develops a general model that can be used to determine the value of sequential forecasts. The model is used (1) to examine the interacting effects of strategies for coping with environmental uncertainty, and (2) to explore the relationship between the theories of sequential choice and quasi-option value. The framework presented bridges these two schools of thought and provides a tool for evaluating one time (e.g., climate change) or repetitive (e.g., pollution) forecasts of environmental damage.     

Enhanced stability of hydrogen peroxide in the presence of subsurface solids

The stabilization of hydrogen peroxide was investigated as a basis for enhancing its downgradient transport and contact with contaminants during catalyzed H(2)O(2) propagations (CHP) in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO). Stabilization of hydrogen peroxide was investigated in slurries containing four characterized subsurface solids using phytate, citrate, and malonate as stabilizing agents after screening ten potential stabilizers. The extent of hydrogen peroxide stabilization and the most effective stabilizer were solid-specific; however, phytate was usually the most effective stabilizer, increasing the hydrogen peroxide half-life to as much as 50 times. The degree of stabilization was nearly as effective at 10 mM concentrations as at 250 mM or 1 M concentrations. The effect of stabilization on relative rates of hydroxyl radical activity varied between the subsurface solids, but citrate and malonate generally had a greater positive effect than phytate. The effect of phytate, citrate, and malonate on the relative rates of superoxide generation was minimal to somewhat negative, depending on the solid. The results of this research demonstrate that the stabilizers phytate, citrate, and malonate can significantly increase the half-life of hydrogen peroxide in the presence of subsurface solids during CHP reactions while maintaining a significant portion of the reactive oxygen species activity. Use of these stabilizers in the field will likely improve the delivery of hydrogen peroxide and downgradient treatment during CHP ISCO.     

What Price Cheap Food?

This paper is the report of a meetingthat gathered many of the UK's most senioranimal scientists with representatives of thefarming industry, consumer groups, animalwelfare groups, and environmentalists. Therewas strong consensus that the current economicstructure of agriculture cannot adequatelyaddress major issues of concern to society:farm incomes, food security and safety, theneeds of developing countries, animal welfare,and the environment. This economic structure isbased primarily on competition betweenproducers and between retailers, driving foodprices down, combined with externalization ofmany costs. These issues must be addressed by acombination of legislation, restructuring ofthe market, and use of public funds. Themeeting included workshops that made otherrecommendations for research and education. Themost urgent requirement is recognition thatchange is needed and development of a visionfor what that change must achieve.     

Lack of effects of atrazine on estrogen-responsive organs and circulating hormone concentrations in sexually immature female Japanese quail (Coturnix coturnix japonica)

The widely used herbicide, atrazine, has been reported to exhibit reproductive toxicity in rats and amphibians. The present studies investigate toxicity of atrazine in Japanese quail and its ability to influence reproduction in sexually immature females. Atrazine was administered in the diet at concentrations from 0.001 to 1000 ppm (approximately 109 mg kg-1 per day) or systemically via daily subcutaneous injections (1 and 10 mg kg-1) or Silastic implants. Atrazine did not cause overt toxicity in sexually immature female quail (no effects on change in body weight, feed intake, mortality or on circulating concentrations of the stress hormone, corticosterone). It was hypothesized that if atrazine were to have estrogenic activity or to enhance endogenous estrogen production, there would be marked increases in the weights of estrogen sensitive tissues including the oviduct, the liver and the ovary together with changes in gonadotropin secretion. However, atrazine had no effect on either liver or ovary weights. Atrazine in the diet increased oviduct weights at 0.1 and 1 ppm in some studies. These effects were not consistently observed and were not significant when data from studies were combined. Systemic administration of atrazine had no effect on oviduct weights. Dietary (concentrations from 0.001 to 1000 ppm) and systemically administered atrazine had no effect on circulating concentrations of luteinizing hormone (LH). The present studies provide evidence for a lack of general or reproductive toxicity of atrazine in birds.     

Energy and Sustainable Development at Global Environmental Summits: An Evolving Agenda

This paper presents a framework for understanding energy issues in the context of sustainable development. It posits that there are three important ways in which energy is related to sustainable development: (a) energy as a source of environmental stress, (b) energy as a principal motor of macroeconomic growth and (c) energy as a prerequisite for meeting basic human needs. These three dimensions correspond to the three dimensions of the often-used triangle of sustainable development: environmental, economic, and social. Using this framework, the paper traces how successive environmental summits at Stockholm (1972), Rio de Janeiro (1992) and Johannesburg (2002) have dealt with energy issues. It identifies a slow, surprising and important evolution of how energy issues have been treated at these global discussions. Energy has received increasing prominence at these meetings and become more firmly rooted in the framework of sustainable development. Stockholm was primarily concerned with the environmental dimension, Rio de Janeiro focused on both the environmental and economic dimensions, and the major headway made at Johannesburg was the meaningful addition of the social dimension and the linking of energy issues to the UN's Millennium Development Goals.     

Brazilian free-tailed bats as insect pest regulators in transgenic and conventional cotton crops.

During the past 12000 years agricultural systems have transitioned from natural habitats to conventional agricultural regions and recently to large areas of genetically engineered (GE) croplands. This GE revolution occurred for cotton in a span of slightly more than a decade during which a switch occurred in major cotton production areas from growing 100% conventional cotton to an environment in which 95% transgenics are grown. Ecological interactions between GE targeted insects and other insectivorous insects have been investigated. However, the relationships between ecological functions (such as herbivory and ecosystem transport) and agronomic benefits of avian or mammalian insectivores in the transgenic environment generally remain unclear, although the importance of some agricultural pest management services provided by insectivorous species such as the Brazilian free-tailed bat, Tadarida brasiliensis, have been recognized. We developed a dynamic model to predict regional-scale ecological functions in agricultural food webs by using the indicators of insect pest herbivory measured by cotton boll damage and insect emigration from cotton. In the south-central Texas Winter Garden agricultural region we find that the process of insectivory by bats has a considerable impact on both the ecology and valuation of harvest in Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) transgenic and nontransgenic cotton crops. Predation on agricultural pests by insectivorous bats may enhance the economic value of agricultural systems by reducing the frequency of required spraying and delaying the ultimate need for new pesticides. In the Winter Garden region, the presence of large numbers of insectivorous bats yields a regional summer dispersion of adult pest insects from Bt cotton that is considerably reduced from the moth emigration when bats are absent in either transgenic or non-transgenic crops. This regional decrease of pest numbers impacts insect herbivory on a transcontinental scale. With a few exceptions, we find that the agronomics of both Bt and conventional cotton production is more profitable when large numbers of insectivorous bats are present.     

Random forests for classification in ecology

Classification procedures are some of the most widely used statistical methods in ecology. Random forests (RF) is a new and powerful statistical classifier that is well established in other disciplines but is relatively unknown in ecology. Advantages of RF compared to other statistical classifiers include (1) very high classification accuracy; (2) a novel method of determining variable importance; (3) ability to model complex interactions among predictor variables; (4) flexibility to perform several types of statistical data analysis, including regression, classification, survival analysis, and unsupervised learning; and (5) an algorithm for imputing missing values. We compared the accuracies of RF and four other commonly used statistical classifiers using data on invasive plant species presence in Lava Beds National Monument, California, USA, rare lichen species presence in the Pacific Northwest, USA, and nest sites for cavity nesting birds in the Uinta Mountains, Utah, USA. We observed high classification accuracy in all applications as measured by cross-validation and, in the case of the lichen data, by independent test data, when comparing RF to other common classification methods. We also observed that the variables that RF identified as most important for classifying invasive plant species coincided with expectations based on the literature.