Correction to: Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture

While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Differences in the growth response of three bryophyte species to nitrogen

The effect of nitrogen on biomass production, shoot elongation and relative density of the mosses Pleurozium schreberi, Hylocomium splendens and Dicranum polysetum was studied in a chamber experiment. Monocultures were exposed to 10 N levels ranging from 0.02 to 7.35 g N m⁻² during a 90-day period. All the growth responses were unimodal, but the species showed differences in the shape parameters of the curves. Hylocomium and Pleurozium achieved optimum biomass production at a lower N level than Dicranum. Pleurozium had the highest biomass production per tissue N concentration. Tolerance to N was the widest in Dicranum, whereas Hylocomium had the narrowest tolerance. Dicranum retained N less efficiently from precipitation than the other two species, which explained its deviating response. All species translocated some N from parent to new shoots. The results emphasize that the individual responses of bryophytes to N should be known when species are used as bioindicators.     

最近和未来欧洲气候变化的特征

为了从日温度和日降水变化的层次来研究欧洲未来的气候,进行了6个区域气候模型的试验,研究了上述变量概率分布的变化.研究发现,这些分布的非对称性随地点和季节的变化各不相同.夏季中欧、东欧、南欧极端最高温度的大幅度变化之后,通常会出现暖季高于平均的温度升高,与此类似,东欧和北欧寒冷日温度的升高也显著大于冬季平均温度的升高.将冬季温度的模型模拟值与历史观测资料值进行比较,结果表明模拟值与观测值在日变率方面是相似的.特别地,和历史上寒冷时期相比,观测到的温暖时期平均温度在增加,而较这种增加强烈得多的寒冷日温度增加也被模型模拟了出来.在欧洲绝大部分地区和所有季节,强降水事件在模拟中的作用增加.     

Nitrogen and metals in two regions in Central Europe: Significant differences in accumulation in mosses due to land use?

The study was conducted to test the hypothesis that the regional variability of nitrogen (N) and metal accumulations in terrestrial ecosystems are due to historical and recent ways of landuse. To this end, two regions of Central Europe were selected for investigation: the Weser-Ems Region (WER) and the Euro Region Nissa (ERN). They were assumed to have land use-specific accumulation profiles. Thus, the metal and N accumulations in both regions were examined by means of geostatistically based comparative moss analysis. The sampling and chemical analysis of mosses were conducted in accordance with the convenient guidelines and methods, respectively. The spatial representativity of the sampling sites was computed by means of a land classification which was calculated for Europe by means of classification trees and GIS-techniques. The differences of deposition loads were tested for statistical significance with regard to time and space. The measurement values corroborated the decline of metal accumulation observed since the beginning of the European Metals in Mosses Surveys in 1990. The metal loads of the mosses in the ERN exceeded those in the WER significantly. The opposite holds true for the N concentrations: those in the WER were significantly higher than those in the ERN. The reduction of emissions from power plants, factories and houses was strongly correlated with the decline of deposition and bioaccumulation of metals. As proved by the European Metals in Mosses Surveys, this tendency is due to successful environmental policies. But no such success could be verified by monitoring the accumulation of N in mosses.     

Supportive Breeding and Variance Effective Population Size

The practice of supporting weak, wild populations through release of individuals bred in captivity is becoming an increasingly important conservation measure. A frequently recommended form of such breeding-release activity refers to supportive breeding: a fraction of the target population is brought into captivity for reproduction, and the resulting progeny are released to mix with the wild segment of the population. We derived an expression for the variance effective size of a population managed through supportive breeding and discuss its relationship to previously published equations that are based on the assumption of random mating. We show that the effect of supportive breeding may be quite different on the inbreeding and the variance effective sizes. Whereas supportive breeding always results in a reduction of the inbreeding effective number, the variance effective number may either decrease, increase, or remain unchanged. We discuss these observations in relation to conservation management and suggest some general guidelines for supportive breeding situations. Our recommendations include making a distinction between inbreeding and variance effective numbers; taking particular care when dealing with organisms with high reproductive potential; assuring that the amount of drift be no larger than it would be without supportive breeding; and focusing primarily on the variance effective size of a population-that is, on the effective number directly related to the rate of loss of gene diversity.     

Critical loads for Finnish lakes: comparison of three steady-state models

Three simple steady-state water-chemistry models are used to calculate critical loads of sulfur for lakes in Finland. Because of the high concentrations of organic matter in Finnish lakes, the influence of organic anions on the calculation of critical loads has been given special attention. The first two methods are well known ion-balance methods which have been used in many previous lake-acidification studies. The third method, developed for this study, includes the numerical solution of equilibrium equations for organic anions, inorganic carbon species and inorganic monomeric aluminum. The original pH and aluminum concentration of the lakes are estimated with this model, and a method to estimate the original acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) by simulating a Gran-titration is also tested on the lake data. Uncertainty in the predictions is estimated by varying the most critical model parameters.