佳木斯台形变观测对东北地区几次浅震“场兆”异常的探讨

大地震在主破裂前往往行成地壳变形,高应力作用下进入峰值后的变形阶段,反映到地倾斜观测日均值曲线上,表现为固体潮形变趋势异常,这些异常能否指示远距离的地震,近年来不少研究者发现,远场前兆往往出现在对应力、应变变化反应灵敏的特殊构造部位。佳木斯台可能处于这种特殊的构造部位,对东北地区浅源地震短期前兆异常“场兆”的趋势性变化具有一定的意义。     

NABat: A top-down,bottom-up solution to collaborative continental-scale monitoring

Collaborative monitoring over broad scales and levels of ecological organization can inform conservation efforts necessary to address the contemporary biodiversity crisis. An important challenge to collaborative monitoring is motivating local engagement with enough buy-in from stakeholders while providing adequate top-down direction for scientific rigor, quality control, and coordination. Collaborative monitoring must reconcile this inherent tension between top-down control and bottom-up engagement. Highly mobile and cryptic taxa, such as bats, present a particularly acute challenge. Given their scale of movement, complex life histories, and rapidly expanding threats, understanding population trends of bats requires coordinated broad-scale collaborative monitoring. The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) reconciles top-down, bottom-up tension with a hierarchical master sample survey design, integrated data analysis, dynamic data curation, regional monitoring hubs, and knowledge delivery through web-based infrastructure. NABat supports collaborative monitoring across spatial and organizational scales and the full annual lifecycle of bats.     

Why it was so difficult to develop new methods to inspect work organization and psychosocial risks in Sweden

In 2001–2003, the Swedish Work Environment Authority (SWEA) ran a project to develop better methods to inspect psychosocial risk factors at work. The objective was twofold: to develop methods to enable most inspectors to effectively inspect such health risks, and to set a standard for method development within SWEA. This article presents our evaluation of the project and a discussion of this as an example of regulatory implementation. The methods project largely failed. Major reasons were the lack of general provisions on psychosocial risks, isolation from other policies in SWEA that affect the inspection of such risks, and a lack of engagement and guidance by top management on how to prioritize and conduct this very challenging development project. Underlying this was possibly a preoccupation with other major internal reforms, a limited competence and an unwillingness to challenge the employers on psychosocial and organizational issues within SWEA’s top management. Yet, the project probably had some indirect positive effects by raising awareness within the authority of psychosocial risk factors, of the complexities of inspecting such risks and of the difficulty to develop effective methods to supervise them.     

Linking ground-water age and chemistry data along flow paths: implications for trends and transformations of nitrate and pesticides

Tracer-based ground-water ages, along with the concentrations of pesticides, nitrogen species, and other redox-active constituents, were used to evaluate the trends and transformations of agricultural chemicals along flow paths in diverse hydrogeologic settings. A range of conditions affecting the transformation of nitrate and pesticides (e.g., thickness of unsaturated zone, redox conditions) was examined at study sites in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and California. Deethylatrazine (DEA), a transformation product of atrazine, was typically present at concentrations higher than those of atrazine at study sites with thick unsaturated zones but not at sites with thin unsaturated zones. Furthermore, the fraction of atrazine plus DEA that was present as DEA did not increase as a function of ground-water age. These findings suggest that atrazine degradation occurs primarily in the unsaturated zone with little or no degradation in the saturated zone. Similar observations were also made for metolachlor and alachlor. The fraction of the initial nitrate concentration found as excess N2 (N2 derived from denitrification) increased with ground-water age only at the North Carolina site, where oxic conditions were generally limited to the top 5 m of saturated thickness. Historical trends in fluxes to ground water were evaluated by relating the times of recharge of ground-water samples, estimated using chlorofluorocarbon concentrations, with concentrations of the parent compound at the time of recharge, estimated by summing the molar concentrations of the parent compound and its transformation products in the age-dated sample. Using this approach, nitrate concentrations were estimated to have increased markedly from 1960 to the present at all study sites. Trends in concentrations of atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, and their degradates were related to the timing of introduction and use of these compounds. Degradates, and to a lesser extent parent compounds, were detected in ground water dating back to the time these compounds were introduced.     

Interaction and influence of two creeks on Escherichia coli concentrations of nearby beaches: exploration of predictability and mechanisms

The impact of river outfalls on beach water quality depends on numerous interacting factors. The delivery of contaminants by multiple creeks greatly complicates understanding of the source contributions, especially when pollution might originate up- or down-coast of beaches. We studied two beaches along Lake Michigan that are located between two creek outfalls to determine the hydrometeorologic factors influencing near-shore microbiologic water quality and the relative impact of the creeks. The creeks continuously delivered water with high concentrations of Escherichia coli to Lake Michigan, and the direction of transport of these bacteria was affected by current direction. Current direction reversals were associated with elevated E. coli concentrations at Central Avenue beach. Rainfall, barometric pressure, wave height, wave period, and creek specific conductance were significantly related to E. coli concentration at the beaches and were the parameters used in predictive models that best described E. coli variation at the two beaches. Multiple inputs to numerous beaches complicates the analysis and understanding of the relative relationship of sources but affords opportunities for showing how these complex creek inputs might interact to yield collective or individual effects on beach water quality.     

Model-Based Selection of Areas for the Restoration of Acrocephalus paludicola Habitats in NE Germany

The global Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola, Vieillot, 1817) population has suffered a major decline due to the large-scale destruction of its natural habitat (fen mires). The species is at risk of extinction, especially in NE Germany/NW Poland. In this study, we developed habitat suitability models based on satellite and environmental data to identify potential areas for habitat restoration on which further surveys and planning should be focused. To create a reliable model, we used all Aquatic Warbler presences in the study area since 1990 as well as additional potentially suitable habitats identified in the field. We combined the presence/absence regression tree algorithm Cubist with the presence-only algorithm Maxent since both commonly outperform other algorithms. To integrate the separate model results, we present a new way to create a metamodel using the initial model results as variables. Additionally, a histogram approach was applied to further reduce the final search area to the most promising sites. Accuracy increased when using both remote sensing and environmental data. It was highest for the integrated metamodel (Cohen’s Kappa of 0.4, P < 0.001). The final result of this study supports the selection of the most promising sites for Aquatic Warbler habitat restoration.     

Deconstructing an assemblage of “turtle” barnacles: species assignments and fickle fidelity in Chelonibia

Barnacles in the genus Chelonibia are commensal with a variety of motile marine animals including sea turtles, crustaceans, and sirenians. We conducted a worldwide molecular phylogenetic survey of Chelonibia collected from nearly all known hosts to assess species relationships, host-fidelity, and phylogeographic structure. Using DNA sequences from a protein-coding mitochondrial gene (COI), a mitochondrial rRNA gene (12S), and one nuclear rRNA gene (28S), we found that of four species, three (C. testudinaria, C. patula, and C. manati) are genetically indistinguishable. In addition, we show each utilizes a rare androdioecious mode of reproduction involving complemental males. In contrast, the fourth species (C. caretta), which is hermaphroditic and specializes on turtles, is genetically distinct—leading to the conclusion that the three former taxa are morphotypes of the same species and should be synonymized under C. testudinaria. Phylogenetic analysis resulted in three geographic clades (Atlantic, Indian Ocean/western Pacific, and eastern Pacific) with haplotype parsimony networks revealing no shared haplotypes among geographic regions. Analysis of molecular variance detected significant differences among sequences by region (p < 0.005); conversely, there were no significant differences among sequences when grouped by host or taxonomic designation. Average pairwise genetic distances were lower between the eastern Pacific and Atlantic clades (0.053 ± 0.006) than between the eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean/western Pacific clades (0.073 ± 0.008), suggesting Atlantic and eastern Pacific populations were connected more recently, perhaps until the rise of the Isthmus of Panama. Host use by Chelonibia morphotypes is discussed along with speculation on possible ancestral hosts and support for a “turtle-first” hypothesis.     

Consistent interpretation of the results of through-, out-diffusion and tracer profile analysis for trace anion diffusion in compacted montmorillonite

Literature data for anion diffusion in compacted swelling clays contain systematic inconsistencies when the results of through-diffusion tests are compared with those of out-diffusion or tracer profile analysis. In the present work we investigated whether these inconsistencies can be explained by taking into account heterogeneities in the compacted samples; in particular increased porosities at the clay boundaries. Based on the combined results of out-diffusion, tracer profile analysis and the spatial distribution of the electrolyte anion in the clay, we conclude that the inconsistencies can indeed be resolved by taking into account a heterogeneous distribution of the total and the anion-accessible porosity. This, by definition, leads to a position dependence of the effective diffusion coefficient. Neglecting these effects results in a rather subordinate systematic error in the determination of effective diffusion coefficients of anions from through-diffusion tests with clay thicknesses in the centimetre range. However, stronger errors in terms of absolute values and conceptual interpretation may be introduced in out-diffusion tests and profile analyses of the diffused tracer. We recommend that anion diffusion tests should be accompanied by measurements of the total and anion-accessible porosity as a function of position in the direction of diffusion.     

Safety belt effectiveness in preventing driver fatalities versus a number of vehicular, accident, roadway, and environmental factors

Safety belt effectiveness in preventing fatalities to drivers is examined versus a number factors (vehicle, accident, and environmental) by applying the double-pair comparison method to appropriate subsets of the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data. For each of 13 factors studied, safety belt effectiveness (the percent of fatally injured unbelted drivers who would not have been killed if they had been wearing safety belts) is estimated, as is an associated standard error of the estimate. The results, which are presented graphically, provide no evidence that safety belt effectiveness is systematically influenced by most of the factors investigated, including car mass and model year. The absence of any systematic relationship with car mass is in agreement with an earlier finding based on the pedestrian fatality exposure method; this agreement adds plausibility to the assumptions used for both the earlier and the present methods. Safety belt effectiveness is greater for single-car crashes (62 ± 5) % than for crashes involving two cars (30 ± 8) % , this difference being statistically significant at p<.02. The results suggest weakly that safety belt effectiveness is greater for two-door (48 ± 6) % than for four-door (38 ± 10) % cars, and is greater for striking (44 ± 6) % cars than for struck (27 ± 12)% cars. The above differences probably reflect higher effectiveness in frontal (or rollover) crashes than in side impacts.