MATERNAL SERUM ALPHA-FETOPROTEIN SCREENING FOR OPEN NEURAL TUBE DEFECTS IN TWIN PREGNANCIES

Data on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 13–24 weeks' gestation in 46 twin pregnancies with open neural tube defects (22 with anencephaly, 24 with open spina bifida) and 169 unaffected twins were used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates associated with different cut-off levels. Using the conventional cut-off level of 2·5 multiples of the median (MoM) for unaffected singleton pregnancies of the same gestation and laboratory, the detection rate in twins was 99 per cent for anencephaly and 89 per cent for open spina bifida, with a false-positive rate of 30 per cent. Using a 5·0 MoM cut-off level to maintain a similar false-positive rate to that found among singleton pregnancies at 16–18 weeks' gestation (about 3 per cent), the detection rate was 83 per cent for anencephaly and 39 per cent for open spina bifida. Estimates are provided of the odds of having an affected twin pregnancy given a positive AFP result as well as the odds for individual women with a raised AFP level.     

Application of tracer ratio and inverse dispersion methods with boat-based plume measurements to estimate ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

Ammonia emissions from two contrasting seabird colonies in Scotland were measured, based on the determination of atmospheric concentrations downwind of the colonies. Atmospheric concentrations of ammonia (NH₃) across the downwind plume were compared with the inverse application of a Gaussian dispersion model (ID) to calculate the modelled NH₃ emission that would generate the measured cross-wind-integrated plume concentration. In parallel, a tracer gas (sulphur hexafluoride, SF₆) was released from the colonies with air samples taken to allow determination of SF₆ concentrations. On the basis of the known emission rate of SF₆, the magnitude of ammonia emissions was estimated by the cross-wind-integrated tracer ratio (TR) of NH₃/SF₆ concentrations. Coupled with data on annual bird attendance, the measurements indicate annual emissions from the Isle of May and the Bass Rock of 18 and 132 tonnes NH₃-N year^–1, respectively. The measured NH₃ emissions were compared with estimates of seabird nitrogen excretion to estimate the proportion of excreted N that is volatilised as NH₃ (F_Nr). The emission estimates of the two methods compared favourably, giving 4 and 6 kg NH₃-N h^–1 (F_Nr = 15%) for the Isle of May for the ID and TR methods, respectively, and 21 and 25 kg NH₃-N h^–1 (F_Nr = 50%) for the Bass Rock for the ID and TR methods, respectively. The results provide the first measurement-based estimates to allow regional up scaling of ammonia emissions from seabirds.     

Managing United States Public Lands in Response to Climate Change: A View From the Ground Up

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.     

Dynamics of Ammonia Exchange in Response to Cutting and Fertilising in an Intensively-Managed Grassland

Continuous micrometorological measurements of ammonia (NH₃)exchange were made for a period of 19 months (May 1998–November 1999) over intensively managed grassland in southern Scotland. This study focused on the influence of management activities, such as cutting and fertilising, on vegetation-atmosphere exchange of NH₃. Measurements were conducted within the European project GRAMINAE (GRassland AMmonia INteractions Across Europe) within which the Scottish site forms one of 6 sites in an E–W transect across Europe. NH₃ emissions were enhanced (up to 300 ng m^-2 s^-1) after cutting followed by larger emissions after fertilising (up to 1400 ng m^-2 s^-1). Annual budget calculations show the intensive grassland acted as a net source (1.8 kg N ha^-1 yr¹) although fluxes were bi-directional with deposition dominating in the winter and emission in the summer. Initial modelling of the NH₃ exchange using a `canopy compensation point' model has been conducted for key periods. The dynamics of the fluxes during these key periods, such as before and after cutting and fertilising, may be reproduced by introducing different values of the apoplastic ratio, = [NH₄ ⁺]/[H⁺].     

Source identification of personal exposure to fine particulate matter using organic tracers

Personal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is due to both indoor and outdoor sources. Contributions of sources to personal exposure can be quite different from those observed at ambient sampling locations. The primary goal of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of using trace organic speciation data to help identify sources influencing PM2.5 exposure concentrations. Sixty-four 24-h PM2.5 samples were obtained on seven different subjects in and around Boulder, CO. The exposure samples were analyzed for PM2.5 mass, elemental and organic carbon, organic tracer compounds, water-soluble metals, ammonia, and nitrate. This study is the first to measure a broad distribution of organic tracer compounds in PM2.5 personal samples. PM2.5 mass exposure concentrations averaged 8.4 μg m^?3. Organic carbon was the dominant constituent of the PM2.5 mass. Forty-four organic species and 19 water-soluble metals were quantifiable in more than half of the samples. Fifty-four organic species and 16 water-soluble metals had measurement signal-to-noise ratios larger than two after blank subtraction.The dataset was analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine the factors that account for the greatest variance. Eight significant factors were identified; each factor was matched to its likely source based primarily on the marker species that loaded the factor. The results were consistent with the expectation that multiple marker species for the same source loaded the same factor. Meat cooking was an important source of variability. The factor that represents meat cooking was highly correlated with organic carbon concentrations (r = 0.84). The correlation between ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5 exposure was relatively weak (r = 0.15). Time participants spent performing various activities was generally not well correlated with PCA factor scores, likely because activity duration does not measure emissions intensity. The PCA results demonstrate that organic tracers can aid in identifying factors that influence personal exposures to PM2.5.     

The Denver Aerosol Sources and Health (DASH) Study: Overview and Early Findings

Improved understanding of the sources of air pollution that are most harmful could aid in developing more effective measures for protecting human health. The Denver Aerosol Sources and Health (DASH) study was designed to identify the sources of ambient fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) that are most responsible for the adverse health effects of short-term exposure to PM (2.5). Daily 24-hour PM(2.5) sampling began in July 2002 at a residential monitoring site in Denver, Colorado, using both Teflon and quartz filter samplers. Sampling is planned to continue through 2008. Chemical speciation is being carried out for mass, inorganic ionic compounds (sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), and carbonaceous components, including elemental carbon, organic carbon, temperature-resolved organic carbon fractions and a large array of organic compounds. In addition, water soluble metals were measured daily for 12 months in 2003. A receptor-based source apportionment approach utilizing positive matrix factorization (PMF) will be used to identify PM (2.5) source contributions for each 24-hour period. Based on a preliminary assessment using synthetic data, the proposed source apportionment should be able to identify many important sources on a daily basis, including secondary ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate, diesel vehicle exhaust, road dust, wood combustion and vegetative debris. Meat cooking, gasoline vehicle exhaust and natural gas combustion were more challenging for PMF to accurately identify due to high detection limits for certain organic molecular marker compounds. Measurements of these compounds are being improved and supplemented with additional organic molecular marker compounds. The health study will investigate associations between daily source contributions and an array of health endpoints, including daily mortality and hospitalizations and measures of asthma control in asthmatic children. Findings from the DASH study, in addition to being of interest to policymakers, by identifying harmful PM(2.5) sources may provide insights into mechanisms of PM effect.     

Measuring eddy covariance fluxes of ammonia using tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy

Field measurements of NH₃ fluxes using an eddy covariance technique were made for a total of 60 days between July and September 2002 at an intensively managed grassland in Southern Scotland. The collected data demonstrate the suitability of a tuneable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS) system coupled with a sonic anemometer for eddy covariance measurements. The novelty of these measurements is the application to ammonia, which has only become measurable using TDLAS techniques recently, because of its small ambient concentration. Data presented in this paper show typical features of the fluxes and concentration for the summer season. NH₃ concentration and flux values are in a similar range to previous studies using flux gradient methods at the same field site, although the particularly wet season reduced the concentration of NH₃ in the air. For an example day, measured NH₃ fluxes ranged between ?11 and 44 ng m^?2 s^?1 with an average value of 3.78 ng m^?2 s^?1 indicating a small net emission from the vegetation. Spectral analysis executed on the data shows the percentage of flux carried by the small eddies (from 0.2 to 2 m) suggesting that high detection frequency instruments are particularly suitable for estimating NH₃ fluxes between atmosphere and vegetation.     

Application of tracer ratio and inverse dispersion methods with boat-based plume measurements to estimate ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

Ammonia emissions from two contrasting seabird colonies in Scotland were measured, based on the determination of atmospheric concentrations downwind of the colonies. Atmospheric concentrations of ammonia (NH₃) across the downwind plume were compared with the inverse application of a Gaussian dispersion model (ID) to calculate the modelled NH₃ emission that would generate the measured cross-wind-integrated plume concentration. In parallel, a tracer gas (sulphur hexafluoride, SF₆) was released from the colonies with air samples taken to allow determination of SF₆ concentrations. On the basis of the known emission rate of SF₆, the magnitude of ammonia emissions was estimated by the cross-wind-integrated tracer ratio (TR) of NH₃/SF₆ concentrations. Coupled with data on annual bird attendance, the measurements indicate annual emissions from the Isle of May and the Bass Rock of 18 and 132 tonnes NH₃-N year^?1, respectively. The measured NH₃ emissions were compared with estimates of seabird nitrogen excretion to estimate the proportion of excreted N that is volatilised as NH₃ (F _Nr). The emission estimates of the two methods compared favourably, giving 4 and 6 kg NH₃-N h^?1 (F _Nr = 15%) for the Isle of May for the ID and TR methods, respectively, and 21 and 25 kg NH₃-N h^?1 (F _Nr = 50%) for the Bass Rock for the ID and TR methods, respectively. The results provide the first measurement-based estimates to allow regional up scaling of ammonia emissions from seabirds.     

Functional Properties of Extruded Acetylated Starch-Cellulose Foams

Acetylated starches, with degrees of substitution (DS) of 2, 2.5 and 3, were blended with 3%, 7.5% and 12% -cellulose and 14%, 17% or 20% (d.b.) ethanol and twin-screw extruded at 165°C barrel temperature and 225 rpm screw speed. A response surface methodology experimental design was applied to the sub-plot and a completely randomized design to the whole plot design to test the differences among the acetylated starches and the effects of cellulose and ethanol. DS, cellulose and ethanol contents significantly affected the functional properties and specific mechanical energy requirement. DS had positive effects on radial expansion ratio (RER), compressibility and specific mechanical energy requirement and a negative effect on bulk density. Highest (RER) was obtained from 20% ethanol content. Extrudates containing 12% cellulose had the highest bulk density and the highest compressibility. Higher cellulose contents required more specific mechanical energy.     

developing a practical dispersion model for an air quality region

A series of computer models have been developed to predict air quality in the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Air Quality Region. Efforts have been directed at models which have a shorter time scale than climatological models, and which are capable of providing better recommendations for effective abatement and planning, but use input data presently available.

The basic dispersion model for these investigations is a steady-state,nondivergent Gaussian-type model. A modified inventory of SO₂ sources,based on published data for the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Air Quality Region, was prepared for use with the model. The basic model has been subjected to various internal sensitivity analyses, in which was isolated the variation produced in the pollutant concentration by a given change in each of the factors that contribute, e.g., wind speed, wind direction,mixing depth, stability conditions, source strengths, and grid size for the area sources.

To date, validation tests of the model have been made against the July and August 1969 data for the ten telemetering stations of the New York City Aerometric Network. Hourly as well as averaged concentrations were considered. Various sets of meteorological data from the network stations and the three area airports, were compared and tested. Additional tests, particularly for the winter season, are needed to substantiate the preliminary conclusions suggested by the results to date.

Considerable insight into the relative importance of model components has been acquired from the sensitivity studies. Furthermore the validation results lend support to the belief that a reasonably simple, practical dispersion model can be developed for the region.