Bedload transport and bedforms migration under sand supply limitation

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - Most studies on sediment transport and bedforms migration consider unlimited sediment supply conditions. However, areas where the sediment supply is limited are...     

Toward Integrative Management Advice of Water Quality, Oil Spills, and Fishery in the Gulf of Finland: A Bayesian Approach

Understanding and managing ecosystems affected by several anthropogenic stressors require methods that enable analyzing the joint effects of different factors in one framework. Further, as scientific knowledge about natural systems is loaded with uncertainty, it is essential that analyses are based on a probabilistic approach. We describe in this article about building a Bayesian decision model, which includes three stressors present in the Gulf of Finland. The outcome of the integrative model is a set of probability distributions for future nutrient concentrations, herring stock biomass, and achieving the water quality targets set by HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan. These distributions can then be used to derive the probability of reaching the management targets for each alternative combination of management actions.     

Human dietary intake of organochlorines from Baltic herring: implications of individual fish variability and fisheries management

This study examines the extent to which Finnish human dietary intake of organochlorines (PCDD/Fs and PCBs) originating from Northern Baltic herring can be influenced by fisheries management. This was investigated by estimation of human intake using versatile modeling tools (e.g., a herring population model and a bioenergetics model). We used a probabilistic approach to account for the variation in human intake of organochlorines originating from the variation among herring individuals. Our estimates were compared with present precautionary limits and recommendation for use. The results show that present consumption levels and frequencies of herring give a high probability of exceeding recommended intake limits of PCDD/Fs and PCBs. Furthermore, our results clearly demonstrate that in the risk management of dioxinlike organochlorines, regulating fishing (in this case increasing fishing pressure) is a far less effective way to decrease the risk than regulating the consumption of herring. Increased fishing would only slightly decrease organochlorine concentrations of herring in the Finnish fish market.