A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

An investigation of methods for enriching trophoblast from maternal blood

Trophoblast deportation is known to occur in normal human pregnancy, but it is not yet clear whether these cells routinely enter the maternal peripheral circulation and are available as a source of fetal DNA for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of genetic disorders. To resolve this issue requires an efficient method of enriching trophoblast from maternal blood combined with a means to confirm its identity. Five different techniques were tested on ten retroplacental blood samples to determine the most sensitive and operator-efficient method. Lysis of red cells alone gave the best recovery of trophoblast but had to be discounted, together with Ficoll density gradient centrifugation, due to the very low purity and the excessive time required. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) of pre-enriched trophoblast resulted in the lowest recovery rate (8 per cent) despite a 3250-fold enrichment and a very high purity. Immunomagnetic beads (Dynabeads) coated with anti-CD 16 antibody proved to be the best method for the subsequent immunocytochemical characterization of deported trophoblast. However, IO beads coated with anti-CD45 antibody may be more useful for isolating trophoblast for prenatal diagnosis due to the high purity, enrichment (32-fold), and recovery rate (78 per cent) obtained with this method.     

CAN SCRAP SAVE US FROM DEPLETION?

Old scrap constitutes varied proportions of consumption of different metals. The authors construct a model in which the share of scrap in total supply is explained by three factors, the growth rate in overall demand for the metal; the share of metal contained in scrapped products actually recovered; and the durability of metal containing products. The model is used to study the impact on the share of scrap in total supply from changes in each of the factors. The strongest impact appears to follow from changes in the growth rate of overall demand. Inserting empirical data for copper into their model, the authors suggest, for instance, that in the long run old scrap could satisfy 100 per cent of copper demand, provided that this demand contracted by 1 per cent per year. La ferraille constitue des proportions variées d'utilisation de différents métaux. Les auteurs de cet article ont construit un modèle dans lequel la part de ferraille dans 'approvisionnement total est expliquée par le jeu de trois facteurs: le taux de croissance de la demande globale pour le métal, la part de métal contenue dans des débris de métaux effectivement récupérés et la durabilité des métaux renfermant des produits. Le modèle est utilisé pour étudier les incidences des changements dans chacun des facteurs sur la part de ferraille dans 'offre totale. L'incidence la plus importante semble provenir de modifications dans le taux de croissance de la demande globale. En introduisant des données empiriques pour le cuivre dans leur modèle, les auteurs suggèrent par exemple, qu' à longue échéance, la ferraille pourrait répondre à la demande totale en cuivre pourvu que cette demande se réduise d'un pour cent par année. El uso de chatarra representa una proporción variable del consumo de los diferentes metales. En este artículo los autores presentan un modelo en el que la proción de la chatarra en la oferta de un metal depende de tres factores: la tasa de crecimiento de la demanda global del metal, la proción del metal contenido en la chatarra recuperada, y la durabilidad o vida económica de los productos que contienen el metal en cuestión. El modelo se utiliza para estudiar el impacto sobre la proporción de chatarra en la oferta total causado por las variaciónes de cada uno de estos factores. El mayor impacto parece ocurrir debido al cambio en la tasa de crecimiento de la demands global. Al utilizar el modelo con datos para el cobre, los autores sugieren, por ejemplo, que en el largo plazo la chatarra de cobre podría satisfacer el cien por ciento de la demanda de este metal siempre que dicha demanda se contraigo en uno por ciento por año.     

Landscape consequences of aggregation rules for functional equivalence in compensatory mitigation programs

Mitigation and offset programs designed to compensate for ecosystem function losses due to development must balance losses from affected ecosystems with gains in restored ecosystems. Aggregation rules applied to ecosystem functions to assess site equivalence are based on implicit assumptions about the substitutability of functions among sites and can profoundly influence the distribution of restored ecosystem functions on the landscape. We investigated the consequences of rules applied to the aggregation of ecosystem functions for wetland offsets in the Beaverhill watershed in Alberta, Canada. We considered the fate of 3 ecosystem functions: hydrology, water purification, and biodiversity. We set up an affect‐and‐offset algorithm to simulate the effect of aggregation rules on ecosystem function for wetland offsets. Cobenefits and trade‐offs among functions and the constraints posed by the quantity and quality of restorable sites resulted in a redistribution of functions between affected and offset wetlands. Hydrology and water purification functions were positively correlated with one another and negatively correlated with biodiversity function. Weighted‐average rules did not replace functions in proportion to their weights. Rules prioritizing biodiversity function led to more monofunctional wetlands and landscapes. The minimum rule, for which the wetland score was equal to the worst performing function, promoted multifunctional wetlands and landscapes. The maximum rule, for which the wetland score was equal to the best performing function, promoted monofunctional wetlands and multifunctional landscapes. Because of implicit trade‐offs among ecosystem functions, no‐net‐loss objectives for multiple functions should be constructed within a landscape context. Based on our results, we suggest criteria for the design of aggregation rules for no net loss of ecosystem functions within a landscape context include the concepts of substitutability, cobenefits and trade‐offs, landscape constraints, heterogeneity, and the precautionary principle.     

The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?

The commodity price boom that emerged in 2004 has proved far more persevering than its predecessors of 1950 and 1973. Some analysts have suggested that it may represent the start of a “supercycle” caused by the voracious raw materials demand from China and other emerging economies, with prices remaining high for 20-30 years. We offer an alternative explanation. For a variety of reasons, the establishment of new capacity in minerals and energy to match the accelerated demand trends is more time consuming than commonly assumed, and may take a decade or longer. As soon as the new capacity is in place, however, the boom will be punctuated. Prices may collapse much earlier in the event of a severe recession that cuts the growth in commodity demand.     

Agent-based analysis and support for incident management

This paper presents an agent-based approach for error detection in incident management organizations. The approach consists of several parts. First, a formal approach for the specification and hierarchical verification of both traces and properties. Incomplete traces are enriched by enrichment rules. Furthermore, a classification mechanism is presented for the different properties in incident management that is based on psychological literature. Classification of errors provides insight in the functioning of the agents involved with respect to their roles. This insight enables the provision of dedicated training sessions and allows software support to give appropriate warning messages during incident management.