MODEL ACCURACY IN SNOWMELT-RUNOFF FORECASTS EXTENDING FROM 1 TO 20 DAYS1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the performance of snowmelt-runoff models in conditions approximating real-time forecast situations. These tests are one part of an intercomparison of models recently conducted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Daily runoff from the Canadian snowmelt basin Illecille. waet (1155 km², 509–3150 m a.s.l.) was forecast for 1 to 20 days ahead. The performance of models was better than in a previous WMO project, which dealt with runoff simulations from historical data, for the following reasons: (1) conditions for models were more favorable than a real-time forecast situation because measured input data and not meteorological forecast inputs were distributed to the modelers; (2) the selected test basin was relatively easy to handle and familiar from the previous WMO project; and (3) all kinds of updating were allowed so that some models even improved their accuracy towards longer forecast times. Based on this experience, a more realistic follow-up project can be imagined which would include temperature forecasts and quantitative precipitation forecasts instead of measured data.     

Association of minor and trace elements with mineralogical constituents of urinary stones: A hard nut to crack in existing studies of urolithiasis

The role of metals in urinary stone formation has already been studied in several publications. Moreover, urinary calculi can also be used for assessing exposure of humans to minor and trace elements in addition to other biological matrices, for example, blood, urine, or hair. However, using urinary calculi for biomonitoring of trace elements is limited by the association of elements with certain types of minerals. In this work, 614 samples of urinary calculi were subjected to mineralogical and elemental analysis. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and thermo-oxidation cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry were used for the determination of major, minor, and trace elements. Infrared spectroscopy was used for mineralogical analysis, and additionally, it was also employed in the calculation of mineralogical composition, based on quantification of major elements and stoichiometry. Results demonstrate the applicability of such an approach in investigating associations of minor and trace elements with mineralogical constituents of stones, especially in low concentrations, where traditional methods of mineralogical analysis are not capable of quantifying mineral content reliably. The main result of this study is the confirmation of association of several elements with struvite (K, Rb) and with calcium phosphate minerals, here calculated as hydroxylapatite (Na, Zn, Sr, Ba, Pb). Phosphates were proved as the most important metal-bearing minerals in urinary calculi. Moreover, a significantly different content was also observed for Fe, Zr, Mo, Cu, Cd, Se, Sn, and Hg in investigated groups of minerals. Examination of such associations is essential, and critical analysis of mineral constituents should precede any comparison of element content among various groups of samples.     

MERITS OF STATISTICAL CRITERIA FOR THE PERFORMANCE OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The performance of a hydrological model is usually assessed first by visual inspection of the measured and computed hydrographs. Numerous statistical criteria are available for numerical evaluations of model accuracy in each single year, in a particular season of the year, or in a sequence of years or seasons. In the last case, the problem of computing the overall result has to be considered. If too many criteria are used and the criteria are switched frequently, an assessment of a model's performance becomes difficult for a potential user. Therefore, this paper concentrates on just three criteria and their combined evaluation: The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, which compares the model computed discharge with the average measured discharge; the “coefficient of gain from daily means” in which a uniform average discharge is replaced by daily average discharges; and the volumetric difference between the total measured and computed runoff. The three criteria are combined in a three dimensional representation that allows intercomparisons of model performance in a single diagram.     

REVISITING THE DEGREE-DAY METHOD FOR SNOWMELT COMPUTATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The simple, empirical degree-day approach for calculating snowmelt and runoff from mountain basins has been in use for more than 60 years. It is frequently suggested that the degree-day method be replaced by the more physically-based energy balance approach. The degree-day approach, however, maintains its popularity, applicability, and effectiveness. It is shown that the degree-day method is reliable for computing total snowmelt depths for periods of a week to the entire snowmelt season. It can also be used for daily snowmelt depths when utilized in connection with an adequate snowmelt runoff model for computing the basin runoff. The degree-day ratio is shown to vary seasonally as opposed to being constant as is often assumed. Additionally, in order to evaluate the degree-day ratio correctly, the changing snow cover extent in a basin during the snowmelt season must be taken into account. It is also possible to combine the degree-day approach with a radiation component so that short time interval (<24 hours) computations of snowmelt depth can be made. When snowmelt input is transformed to basin output (runoff) by a snowmelt runoff model, there is little difference between the degree-day approach and a radiation-based approach. This is fortuitous because the physically-based energy balance models will not soon displace the degree-day methods because of their excessive data requirements.     

Biochar reduces the toxicity of silver to barley (Hordeum vulgare) and springtails (Folsomia candida) in a natural soil

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The use of biochar in soil remediation is a promising method to deal with metal contamination. In the present study, the influence of biochar...