Modeling Acidification Recovery on Threatened Ecosystems: Application to the Evaluation of the Gothenburg Protocol in France

To evaluate the acid deposition reduction negotiated for 2010 within the UNECE LRTAP Gothenburg Protocol, sulphur and nitrogen deposition time-series (1880–2100) were compared to critical loads of acidity on five French ecosystems: Massif Central basalt (site 1) and granite (2); Paris Bassin tertiary sands (3); Vosges mountains sandstone (4) and Landes eolian sands (5). The SAFE model was used to estimate the response of soil solution pH and ratio to the deposition scenario. Among the five sites, critical loads were exceeded in the past at sites 3, 4 and 5. Sites 3 and 4 were still expected to exceed in 2010, the Protocol year. Further reduction of atmospheric deposition, mainly nitrogen, would be needed to achieve recovery on these ecosystems. At sites 3, 4 and 5, the delay between the critical load exceedance and the violation of the critical chemical criterion was estimated to be 10 to 30 years in the top soil and 50 to 90 years in the deeper soil. At site 5, a recovery was expected in the top soil in 2010 with a time lag of 10 years. Unexpectedly, soil pH continued to decrease after 1980 in the deeper soil at sites 2 and 5. This time lag indicated that acidification moved down the soil profile as a consequence of slow base cation depletion by ion exchange. This delayed response of the soil solution was the result of the combination of weathering rates and vegetation uptake but also of the relative ratio between base cation deposition and acid compounds.     

Modelling future soil chemistry at a highly polluted forest site at Istebna in Southern Poland using the "SAFE" model

The multi-layer dynamic model SAFE was applied to the forested catchment Istebna (Southern Poland), to study recovery from acidification. Environmental pollution in the area has been historically high. The model uses data from an intensive monitoring plot established in 1999 in a spruce stand, which was planted in 1880. Observations showed that the soil was depleted of base cations. The measured base saturation in 1999 was between 5 and 8% in the different soil layers. Model predictions assuming full implementation of the UNECE 1999 Gothenburg Protocol and present day base cation deposition show that the base saturation will slowly increase to 20% by 2100. Despite large emission reductions, Istebna still suffers from the very high loads of acidifying input during the past decades. Soil recovery depends on future emissions especially on base cation deposition. The recovery will be even slower if the base cation deposition decreases further.     

Modeling recovery of Swedish ecosystems from acidification

Dynamic models complement existing time series of observations and static critical load calculations by simulating past and future development of chemistry in forest and lake ecosystems. They are used for dynamic assessment of the acidification and to produce target load functions, that describe what combinations of nitrogen and sulfur emission reductions are needed to achieve a chemical or biological criterion in a given target year. The Swedish approach has been to apply the dynamic acidification models MAGIC, to 133 lakes unaffected by agriculture and SAFE, to 645 productive forest sites. While the long-term goal is to protect 95% of the area, implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will protect approximately 75% of forest soils in the long term. After 2030, recovery will be very slow and involve only a limited geographical area. If there had been no emission reductions after 1980, 87% of the forest area would have unwanted soil status in the long term. In 1990, approximately 17% of all Swedish lakes unaffected by agriculture received an acidifying deposition above critical load. This fraction will decrease to 10% in 2010 after implementation of the Gothenburg protocol. The acidified lakes of Sweden will recover faster than the soils. According to the MAGIC model the median pre-industrial ANC of 107 microeq L(-1) in acid sensitive lakes decreased to about 60 microeq L(-1) at the peak of the acidification (1975-1990) and increases to 80 microeq L(-1) by 2010. Further increases were small, only 2 microeq L(-1) between 2010 and 2040. Protecting 95% of the lakes will require further emission reductions below the Gothenburg protocol levels. More than 7000 lakes are limed regularly in Sweden and it is unlikely that this practice can be discontinued in the near future without adverse effects on lake chemistry and biology.     

Rapid assessment of postfire plant invasions in coniferous forests of the western United States.

Fire is a natural part of most forest ecosystems in the western United States, but its effects on nonnative plant invasion have only recently been studied. Also, forest managers are engaging in fuel reduction projects to lessen fire severity, often without considering potential negative ecological consequences such as nonnative plant species introductions. Increased availability of light, nutrients, and bare ground have all been associated with high-severity fires and fuel treatments and are known to aid in the establishment of nonnative plant species. We use vegetation and environmental data collected after wildfires at seven sites in coniferous forests in the western United States to study responses of nonnative plants to wildfire. We compared burned vs. unburned plots and plots treated with mechanical thinning and/or prescribed burning vs. untreated plots for nonnative plant species richness and cover and used correlation analyses to infer the effect of abiotic site conditions on invasibility. Wildfire was responsible for significant increases in nonnative species richness and cover, and a significant decrease in native cover. Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire fuel treatments were associated with significant changes in plant species composition at some sites. Treatment effects across sites were minimal and inconclusive due to significant site and site x treatment interaction effects caused by variation between sites including differences in treatment and fire severities and initial conditions (e.g., nonnative species sources). We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to determine what combinations of environmental variables best explained patterns of nonnative plant species richness and cover. Variables related to fire severity, soil nutrients, and elevation explained most of the variation in species composition. Nonnative species were generally associated with sites with higher fire severity, elevation, percentage of bare ground, and lower soil nutrient levels and lower canopy cover. Early assessments of postfire stand conditions can guide rapid responses to nonnative plant invasions.     

On the Calculation and Interpretation of Target Load Functions

In this study critical load functions and target load functions of nitrogen and sulphur deposition with respect to acidity and minimum base cation to aluminium ratio were calculated with the SAFE model using three different averaging strategies: (1) averaging based on current forest generation, (2) averaging based on next generation and (3) averaging based on the entire simulation period. From the results it is evident that although target load calculation and indeed critical load calculation is straight forward, there is a problem in translating a predicted recovery according to the target load calculation back to a site-specific condition. We conclude that a policy strategy for emission reductions that ensures recovery, according to calculated target load functions, is likely to be beneficial from an ecosystem point of view. However, such a strategy may not be sufficient to achieve actual non-violation of the chemical criteria throughout the seasonal or rotational variations. To address this issue we propose a method for calculating dynamic critical loads which ensures that the chosen criteria is not violated.     

The impact of climate change coping and adaptation strategies on livestock farmers’ technical efficiency: the case of rural Ghana

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Compared with developed nations, developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change and variability. In this study, a coping and adaptation...     

Critical patch sizes for food-web modules

Because patch size and connectivity may strongly impact the assemblage of species that occur on a patch, the types of food-web interactions that occur among those species may also depend on spatial structure. Here, we identify whether food-web interactions among salt-marsh-inhabiting arthropods vary with patch size and connectivity, and how such changes in trophic structure might feed back to influence the spatial distribution of prey. In a multiyear survey, patch-restricted predators exhibited steeper occupancy-patch-size relationships than herbivores, and species' critical patch sizes were correlated with overall rarity. As a result, the presence of food-web modules depended strongly on patch size: large and well-connected patches supported complex food-web modules, but only the simplest modules involving the most abundant species were found on small patches. Habitat-generalist spiders dominated on small patches, and predation pressure from such species may contribute to the observed lower densities of mesopredators on small patches. Overall, patch size and connectivity influenced the types of modules present on a patch through differential loss of rare, patch-restricted predators, but predation by generalist predators may be a key mechanism influencing the spatial structure of certain prey species.     

Parameterization and evaluation of sulfate adsorption in a dynamic soil chemistry model

Sulfate adsorption was implemented in the dynamic, multi-layer soil chemistry model SAFE. The process is modeled by an isotherm in which sulfate adsorption is considered to be fully reversible and dependent on sulfate concentration as well as pH in soil solution. The isotherm was parameterized by a site-specific series of simple batch experiments at different pH (3.8-5.0) and sulfate concentration (10-260 micromol 1(-1)) levels. Application of the model to the Lake Gardsj6n roof covered site shows that including sulfate adsorption improves the dynamic behavior of the model and sulfate adsorption and desorption delay acidification and recovery of the soil. The modeled adsorbed pool of sulfate at the site reached a maximum level of 700 mmol/m(2) in the late 1980s, well in line with experimental data.     

The Solling roof revisited--slow recovery from acidification observed and modeled despite a decade of "clean-rain" treatment

Soil chemistry under the Solling clean-rain roof was simulated using the dynamic multi-layer soil chemistry model SAFE, including sulfate adsorption. Soil was sampled in order to parameterize the pH and sulfate concentration dependent sulfate adsorption isotherm used in SAFE. Modeled soil solution chemistry was compared to the 14 year long time-series of monthly measurements of soil solution data at 10 and 100cm depth. The deposition of N and S under the roof has been reduced by 68% and 53%, respectively, compared to the surrounding area. Despite this the soil solution concentrations of sulfate are still high (a median of 420mumol(c)/L at 100cm depth between 2000 and 2002) and the soil base saturation low (approximately 3% in the whole profile in 1998). Sulfate adsorption is an important process in Solling. The soil capacity to adsorb sulfate is large, the modeled adsorbed pool in 2003 down to 100cm was 1030kg S/ha, and the measured sulfate concentration is high, due to release of adsorbed sulfate. The addition of sulfate adsorption improved the modeled sulfate dynamics although the model still slightly underestimated the sulfate concentration at 100cm. Model predictions show no recovery, based on the criteria of Bc/Al ratio above 1 in the rooting zone, before the year 2050, independent of future deposition cuts.     

An approach for determining the extent of contribution of construction project features to accident causation

In the pursuit of Health and Safety (H&S) improvement within the UK construction industry, several studies have been conducted to identify accident causal factors to enable the development of accident prevention measures. Adding to such studies, a critique of H&S literature demonstrates that construction project features (CPFs) such as the nature of project, method of construction, site restriction, project duration, procurement system, design complexity, level of construction, and subcontracting contribute to accident causation and that their contribution is through the introduction of proximal accident causal factors into the construction process. However, the extent of this contribution by these CPFs remains sparingly known and requires further investigation. The study provides this insight by indicating that the extent to which CPFs contribute to accident causation is influenced by two factors; the extent to which the proximal factors contribute to accident causation; and the extent to which the proximal factors are prevalent within the CPFs. In line with this fresh insight, an approach for determining the extent to which CPFs contribute to accident causation is put forth. The approach proposes to use a qualitative–quantitative rating scale to determine the two determinant factors and then combine them using a mathematical formula to obtain the extent to which CPFs contribute to accident causation. By this approach the grey areas in literature concerning the extent to which CPFs contribute to accident causation will be illuminated and by that contribute to improvement in construction accident prevention.