Assessing environmentally significant effects: a better strength-of-evidence than a single P value?

Interpreting a P value from a traditional nil hypothesis test as a strength-of-evidence for the existence of an environmentally important difference between two populations of continuous variables (e.g. a chemical concentration) has become commonplace. Yet, there is substantial literature, in many disciplines, that faults this practice. In particular, the hypothesis tested is virtually guaranteed to be false, with the result that P depends far too heavily on the number of samples collected (the ‘sample size’). The end result is a swinging burden-of-proof (permissive at low sample size but precautionary at large sample size). We propose that these tests be reinterpreted as direction detectors (as has been proposed by others, starting from 1960) and that the test’s procedure be performed simultaneously with two types of equivalence tests (one testing that the difference that does exist is contained within an interval of indifference, the other testing that it is beyond that interval—also known as bioequivalence testing). This gives rise to a strength-of-evidence procedure that lends itself to a simple confidence interval interpretation. It is accompanied by a strength-of-evidence matrix that has many desirable features: not only a strong/moderate/dubious/weak categorisation of the results, but also recommendations about the desirability of collecting further data to strengthen findings.     

Agrarian Ideals and Practices: Comments on Paul B. Thompson’s The Agrarian Vision

In The Agrarian Vision, Thompson argues that a better appreciation of agrarian ideals could lead to a more virtuous, more sustainable way of life. While I agree with Thompson in many respects, there are some aspects of the book that I question and others that I would like to hear Thompson explicate in greater detail. In this paper, I question Thompson’s claim that agrarian farmers and farming communities serve as ideal models of virtuous habits and good character. I challenge Thompson’s use of virtue theory, particularly the notion that farming virtues can be acquired without participating in farming practices. In the end, I make the point that Thompson seems to vacillate between being realistic and being idealistic, which may seriously complicate our notions of responsibility and obligation in practice.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in breast milk of first-time Irish mothers: impact of the 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland

The 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland resulted in elevated concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Irish pork and pork products, due to the consumption of contaminated animal feed by pigs. In order to investigate any resulting impact on the Irish population, these contaminants were measured in pooled breast milk samples from 109 first-time mothers, collected in 2010. A comparison of the results with similar data from 2002 revealed generally lower concentrations of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs in the 2010 samples, confirming the declining trend reported by many authors. Contaminant concentration levels for both 2002 and 2010 were generally slightly lower than those reported internationally, with a mean combined PCDD/F and PCB WHO-TEQ of 9.66 pg g⁻¹ fat, for an overall pooled sample of milk from 2010. An apparent slight increase in PCDFs was observed between 2002 and 2010 (from 2.73 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat to 3.21 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat), with the main contributory congener being 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF. While it cannot be totally discounted that the slight increase in 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF and in the overall PCDF WHO-TEQ in breast milk could be attributable to consumption of Irish pork during the 2008 incident, we consider that it is more likely that this was due to other factors, including the predominantly urban/industrial sampling locations for the 2010 samples, compared to 2002.     

Assessing the use of poplar tree systems as a landfill evapotranspiration barrier with the SHAW model.

The use of poplar tree systems (PTS) as evapotranspiration barriers on decommissioned landfills is gaining attention as an option for leachate management. This study involved field-testing the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model for its ability to reliably estimate poplar transpiration, volumetric soil water content, and soil temperature at a landfill located in southern Ontario, Canada. The model was then used to estimate deep drainage and to ascertain the influence of a young PTS on the soil water balance of the landfill cover. The SHAW model tended to underestimate poplar transpiration [mean difference (MD) ranged from 0.33 to 3.55 mm on a daily total basis] and overestimate volumetric soil water content by up to 0.10 m3 m(-3). The model estimated soil temperature very well, particularly in the upper 1 m of the landfill cover (MD ranged from -0.1 to 1.6 x degrees C in this layer). The SHAW model simulations showed that deep drainage decreased appreciably with the presence of a young PTS largely through increased interception of rainfall, and that PTS have a good potential to act as effective evapotranspiration barriers in northern temperate climate zones.     

Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

Population structure of red drum (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sciaenops ocellatus</Emphasis>) as determined by otolith chemistry

To examine current genetic-based paradigms pertaining to the structure and possible philopatry of red drum populations, we used solution-based inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to analyze the otolith chemistry of juvenile red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) from eight different estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf) and the North Atlantic Ocean. One estuary (Tampa Bay, Fla.) was sampled in three different years. Analyses of variance for five elemental ratios (Mg/Ca, Mn/Ca, Zn/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca) were all significantly different between estuaries, as was a multi-element signature (MANOVA, Pillais trace F _{50, 1020}=19.41, P<0.0001). We also found that red drum from the Gulf could be distinguished from those taken from the Atlantic Ocean with 99.5% accuracy, likely due to differences in water chemistry between these water masses. A discriminant function developed using these elemental ratios was more than 80% accurate in assigning juvenile red drum to their natal estuary, or in the case of Tampa Bay, to the correct year of spawning. We also used laser ablation ICP-MS to examine the otolith core chemistry of adult red drum collected from spawning aggregations near Tampa Bay. Using a discriminant function analysis with a calibration data set derived from juvenile signatures, we found that 75% of the adult cores matched the juvenile signal established for Tampa Bay 1982. Although preliminary, the results presented here suggest that red drum may return to their natal estuary to spawn, which has been postulated from genetic data.Communicated by P.W. Sammarco, Chauvin     

Reduction of silver solubility by humic acid and thiol ligands during acanthite (beta-Ag2S) dissolution

Precipitation of highly insoluble metal sulfide minerals like acanthite (beta-Ag2S) or red cinnabar (HgS) is in principle an effective means to reduce metal availability and toxicity in contaminated soils. Unfortunately, experiments have shown that red cinnabar may be solubilized in the presence of dissolved organic matter or thiol ligands. To determine whether the same applies to acanthite, a laboratory synthesized beta-Ag2S mineral was incubated for up to 3 weeks in the presence of KNO3, dissolved humic acids, cysteine, methionine and thiosulfate. XPS analysis identified Ag2O (52%), Ag2SO4 (8%) and Ag2S (40%) on the particle surfaces. Ag was released into solution in the presence of KNO3 and methionine, presumably from mixed-oxidation surface layers. Contrary to earlier results with cinnabar, however, humic acids reduced Ag concentrations in solution by about 75%, and cysteine and thiosulfate, each containing a free -SH functional group, almost completely suppressed Ag release into solution.